Investing Research Articles

We evaluate here the advice offered in the “Trendspotting” column in SmartMoney.com by Igor Greenwald since October 2002 (the earliest available). Igor Greenwald was a regular writer and columnist for SmartMoney.com. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days… Keep Reading

…(German financial) journalists show predictive ability in their (1) sell recommendations and (2) buy recommendations for value stocks and positive momentum stocks.

…earnings guidance/forecasts are probably more accurate (to be precise, less intentionally biased) post-SOX than they were pre-SOX.

…surprisingly strong (weak) aggregate earnings news, as an indicator of high (low) future inflation, may portend relatively low (high) future stock returns.

…mimicking the most informative actions of outperforming investors/traders reliably generates abnormal short-term returns. Such behavior may explain some of the momentum effect.

…the Sharpe ratio has such a high level of intrinsic variability that it is not a very reliable portfolio comparison tool.

…portfolio management based on statistically reliable characterization of the long-term trend of the stock market offers an economically significant advantage over approaches that ignore the long-term trend.

…individual investors should continually ask themselves whether their information gathering efforts support rational execution of new decisions, or merely feed overconfidence in past decisions.

…the volatility premium for individual stocks derives from volatilities implied by options prices rather than historical (realized) stock price volatilities. This premium may be concentrated in small growth stocks.

The more we study it, the smaller it gets? Or, the act of studying risk diminishes the fear of it?