Investing Research Articles

Risk analyzing stormy weather…

…market timing based on technical analysis is not reliably profitable for commodity futures.

Taking a break…

…U.S. stocks tend be be most overvalued under Democratic Presidents, under popular Presidents, during election years and during years when no new major military conflicts start.

…individual investors/traders should be diligent and honest in assessing personal past performance if they want to learn from experience.

…the Australian stock market offers several historical anomalies, most notably size and negative earnings-to-price, that investors/traders may be able to exploit.

…real active management consists not of the selection of portfolio assets but rather the decisions to change the weights of these assets within the portfolio.

…low volatility of returns is key to identifying persistent outperformance among hedge funds.

…the TradingMarkets 5% VIX rule is of limited practical use and does not support a standalone trading strategy that keeps up with buy-and-hold.

Via the semiannual Livingston Survey, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia solicits forecasts for the S&P 500 index (and many other U.S. economic measures) from economists in industry, government, banking and academia. How good are their forecasts? In his June 2007 paper entitled “Predicting Stock Price Movements: Regressions versus Economists”, Paul Soderlind examines the aggregate… Keep Reading