Investing Research Articles

Should investors go with or against asset pricing bubbles? Or, should they step aside and await a “Return to Normalcy?” In their December 2009 paper entitled “Riding Bubbles”, Nadja Guenster, Erik Kole and Ben Jacobsen investigate empirically the best approach for investors to take regarding active asset bubbles. They detect bubbles within rolling historical 10-year… Keep Reading

…results from simple tests do not support a belief that an investor can readily filter good and bad daily stock market returns based on the level of realized volatility.

Can investors effectively exploit the short-term price reversal anomaly for individual stocks after trading friction? Is success limited to big players? In their May 2010 paper entitled “Another Look at Trading Costs and Short-Term Reversal Profits”, Wilma de Groot, Joop Huij and Weili Zhou investigate the net profitability of reversal trading with and without steps… Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Steve Sjuggerud’s commentary on the U.S. stock market via the DailyWealth archive since October 2005. DailyWealth is an informational service of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, which is owned by or affiliated with Agora Inc. Stansberry & Associates Investment Research also offers Steve Sjuggerud’s True Wealth, “a… Keep Reading

…potential issues regarding sample size, data quality, data snooping bias and look-ahead bias undermine belief in this study’s conclusion that changes in the population for age nine in the U.S. accurately predict U.S. stock market returns. Also, smoothing rules applied in variable construction obscure exploitability.

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit gross profits-to-assets as a predictor of individual stock returns, especially within industry. The effect is comparable in magnitude and complimentary to book-to-market, such that combining them is especially powerful.

…evidence indicates that expert analysts who have relatively high prior earnings forecasting accuracies, forecast frequencies and forecast revision frequencies and who cover relatively few companies and industries make abnormally good stock recommendations.

…hedge fund investors may want to consider the probability and persistence of increasing high water mark in selecting hedge funds.

…evidence from an array of tests indicates that the cumulative return over the period from 12 months ago to seven months ago is decisive for the momentum anomaly for U.S. stocks, industries, styles, country indexes, commodities and currencies. Including more recent, largely irrelevant past returns in forming momentum portfolios may hurt performance.

“On a day after a large decline in equities, it might be appropriate to look at managed futures.”