Investing Research Articles

…evidence indicates that U.S. stock market returns may be significantly predictable during economic and political crises, but not during market bubbles and crashes. Investor misreaction to crises, not economic fundamentals, appear to drive stock return predictability.

…evidence suggests that investors may be able to exploit market volatility derived from forward-looking (implied volatility) measures, especially the persistent diffusion volatility component.

The probability of achieving such perfection is vanishingly small (in other words, zero).

 A reader suggested that we evaluate the stock market forecasts of Charles Biderman, founder and CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research. The TrimTabs perspective “relies on the insight that price [of equities in aggregate] is a function of supply and demand and has nothing to do with value.” The predictions/recommendations evaluated here extend as far back… Keep Reading

…evidence indicates that art in aggregate: (1) has delivered a competitive mean return, but with extremely high volatility, over the past 24 years; (2) is not a good hedge for stocks; and, (3) generally offers diversification benefits to a portfolio of asset classes.

…evidence indicates that positive (negative) aggregate earnings surprises portend higher (lower) future inflation/discount rates, and therefore negative (positive) future stock market returns and increases (decreases) in bond yields.

…the stocks of companies unadmired by the ostensibly well-informed may well outperform the stocks of the companies admired.

…evidence from simple tests on available data supports a belief that Timothy Sykes can identify pump-and-dump patterns in real time with economically meaningful consistency, but scalability is multiply constrained such that his subscribers may not be able to mimic his trades reliably. Niche constraints may preclude exploitation by large traders, a large group of small traders and funds.

…investors may find Put Option Strategies for Smarter Trading useful as a source of information on how put option strategies work, but they should be skeptical that any examples it presents on strategy profitability are reliably achievable in actual trading.

Inserting daily CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) history for 12/12/05-1/13/10 into the model generates no breakout signals over the four-year sample period.