Investing Research Articles

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2025. The actual total (core) inflation rate is about the same as (about the same as) forecasted. We have also updated the inflation seasonality chart through 2025.

Does lack of critical assessment of cause and effect undermine reliability of findings in scientific research? In his December 2025 presentation package entitled “Investment Lessons from Cosmology: Draw Your Assumptions Before Your Conclusions”, Marcos Lopez de Prado describes how recent developments in cosmology demonstrate the potential power of causal inference to prevent false discoveries in… Keep Reading

Time-series momentum (TSMOM) is a well-documented finding that past returns predict next-period returns for many asset types. Is the relationship between past and future performance linear? In their December 2025 paper entitled “Nonlinear Time Series Momentum”, Tobias Moskowitz, Riccardo Sabbatucci, Andrea Tamoni and Björn Uhl compare a TSMOM trading strategy with non-linear weights to: (1)… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/5/26 through 1/9/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A Securities Information Processor (SIP) aggregates quotes and trades from all U.S. stock exchanges to feed the NYSE Trade and Quote (TAQ) database, used in much finance research to (for example) estimate effective bid-ask spreads and associated trading frictions. Is this database trustworthy? In their December 2025 paper entitled “Latency and the Look-Ahead Bias in… Keep Reading

Most researchers use classical statistical testing, with a t-statistic of 2.0 as the significance threshold for accepting an hypothesis. However, this threshold is valid only if the associated p-value derives from a single test. There are hundreds of published factor tests and an unknown number of unpublished tests. How far should researchers raise the significance… Keep Reading

How sensitive are multi-class asset allocation strategies to variations in backtesting choices? In their December 2025 paper entitled “The Multiverse Across Asset Classes: Design Uncertainty in Asset Allocations”, Arnaud Battistella, Jean-Charles Bertrand, Guillaume Coqueret and Nicholas McLoughlin explore net annualized Sharpe ratio sensitivities of asset class allocation methods with respect to five backtest design choices:… Keep Reading

Is Bitcoin a scarce, valuable asset or a Ponzi scheme? In his December 2025 paper entitled “The Great Bitcoin Debate: Saylor’s Maximalism Versus Schiff’s Monetary Traditionalism”, David Krause examines the debate between Bitcoin maximalists (represented by Michael Saylor) and traditional monetary economists (represented by Peter Schiff), encapsulated as follows: Saylor: Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21… Keep Reading

“Dominant U.S. Stock Market?” summarizes a paper that (1) examines whether a 60%+ allocation to the U.S. in the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) is crazy high and (2) decides maybe not. In “How Much Is Too Much? Part 2: Why 60% in US Equities Might Be Just as Crazy as It Sounds”, the… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 12/29/25 through 1/2/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.