Investing Research Articles

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/16/24 through 1/19/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Does long term data support the belief that “as goes January, so goes the rest of the year” (January is the barometer) for the the U.S. stock market? To investigate, we consider two views of the S&P 500 Index over its full history: Correlations between index returns during each calendar month and returns over the… Keep Reading

What are optimal intrinsic/absolute/time series momentum (IM) and simple moving average (SMA) lookback intervals for different asset class proxies? To investigate, we use data for the following eight asset class exchange-traded funds (ETF), plus Cash: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) iShares JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Fund (EMB) iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA) SPDR Gold… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/8/24 through 1/12/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Are some years of the decade better than others for equity markets? To investigate, we look at average annual returns by year of the decade (xxx0 through xxx9) for the U.S. stock market. Using annual levels of Shiller’s S&P Composite Index for 1871-2023 and the S&P 500 Index for 1928-2023, we find that:

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/2/24 through 1/5/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Academic studies of stock portfolio optimization often use an equal-weighted (EW) strategy as benchmark. Are there simple EW enhancements that researchers ought to consider instead? In their December 2023 paper entitled “Outperforming Equal Weighting”, Antonello Cirulli and Patrick Walker test three sets of enhanced long-only EW portfolios relying solely on past returns: Momentum-enhanced EW –… Keep Reading

“Distance Between Fast and Slow Price SMAs and Stock Returns” finds that extreme distance between a 21-trading day simple moving average (SMA) and 200-trading day SMA, as applied to individual U.S. stock price series, may be a useful return predictor. Does this finding apply to non-U.S. stock market indexes? In their December 2023 paper entitled… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 12/26/23 through 12/29/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

In their 2023 book, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, authors Victor Haghani and James White seek “to give you a practical framework, consistent with the consensus of university finance textbooks, for making good financial decisions that are right for you. Good decisions will take account of your personal circumstances, financial preferences,… Keep Reading