Investing Research Articles

…Harmonic Trading: Volume One describes an approach to developing expectations for the behavior of financial asset and asset class prices based on the belief that these prices naturally follow trajectories (form patterns) generated by a process governed by Fibonacci ratios. Although the book offers many examples of pattern analysis, it does not quantify the benefits of such analysis in terms of per-trade or portfolio level profitability.

…evidence from the most credible models of the historical U.S. equity risk premium converge to an annual value in the range 4% to 4.5% during 1872-1950 and 1951-2008.

…evidence indicates that portfolios constructed from ranking stocks based on complex valuation metrics may materially outperform those constructed from simple valuation metrics.

Navellier & Associates, Inc. offers one Navellier-branded mutual fund, Navellier Fundamental A (NFMAX), “designed to achieve the highest possible returns while minimizing risk.” Selection criteria for fund holdings, re-measured quarterly, “include earnings growth, profit margins, reasonable price/earnings ratios based on expected future earnings, and various other fundamental criteria.” Using NFMAX weekly adjusted closing prices from… Keep Reading

…evidence suggests that investors may be able to gain an edge by considering the recent historical relationship between average stock price variance and future short-term market return.

…for the sake of realism, investment strategy developers should rigorously examine the defensibility of any assumptions embedded in their inference processes.

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to earn abnormal returns by exploiting systematic outperformance (underperformance) of stocks with very low (high) historical accrual volatilities.

…experimental evidence indicates that participation in stock message boards/forums increases a typical investor’s propensity to trade and decreases actual investment performance. Investors may want to factor this effect into their information search and processing practices.

…evidence indicates that success of high-frequency trading of paired stocks likely depends critically on minimizing trading friction, balancing trading friction and trigger sensitivity and reacting quickly to triggers, and perhaps on being especially alert during the first hour of trading.

…evidence indicates that hedge funds with low net market exposure may earn returns largely by assuming that correlations between assets and asset classes will behave predictably, and rogue correlation spikes may swamp these funds with extremely large drawdowns.