Investing Research Articles

Reader Mike Korell of ChartsEdge suggested an evaluation of his own S&P 500 Index forecasts for inclusion in Gurus. These “stock market forecasts are based on cycle data which has been analyzed by a Pattern Recognition Program. This use of artificial intelligence reduces the effect of personal bias and allows the simultaneous cycle analysis of… Keep Reading

…investors should assess and compare asset classes based on dynamic estimates of respective risk premiums (implied returns derived from current prices and estimated cash flows) to guide asset class allocation and market timing.

…estimates of the reward for risking equity investment vary with sample period, market and calculation method. Estimates tend to be higher when GDP is volatile and nominal interest rates are low.

…evidence from straightforward tests on a fairly small sample does not support a belief that Jim Rohrbach’s timing approach (including service fees) beats simple benchmarks.

…evidence from analysis of market outperformance streaks among actively managed U.S. mutual funds indicates that fund manager skill is material to fund performance.

…evidence indicates that 3-month rolling VIX futures contracts may be the preferred way for investors to hedge stock market positions against crashes.

…evidence from an array of tests does not support beliefs that CFA designation, MBA degree and level of experience are critical success factors for investment managers.

…while The Gleason Report’s Stock Value Model has performed well in real time (as claimed) since 1999, the performance sample is very small for reliable inference in terms of number of signals, and the most recent signals have poor outcomes.

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit industrial metal prices as a leading indicator of stock market returns by recognizing that the relationship is positive (negative) for bad (good) economic conditions.

…evidence from simple tests of a publicly available set of “confirmed” Hindenburg Omens suggests the possibility of usefulness, but reservations regarding small sample size and potential sample bias are strong.