What are optimal intrinsic/absolute/time series momentum (IM) and simple moving average (SMA) lookback intervals for different asset class proxies? To investigate, we use data for the following ten asset class exchange-traded funds (ETF), plus Cash:
- Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
- iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
- iShares JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Fund (EMB)
- iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
- SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
- iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
- iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD)
- SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
- iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
- Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
- 3-month Treasury bills (Cash)
For IM tests, we invest in each ETF (Cash) when its return over the past one to 12 months is positive (negative). For SMA tests, we invest in each ETF (Cash) when its price is above (below) its average monthly price at the ends of the last two to 12 months. We focus on compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and maximum drawdown (MaxDD) as key metrics for comparing different IM and SMA lookback intervals since earliest ETF data availabilities based on the longest IM lookback interval. Using monthly dividend-adjusted closing prices for the asset class proxies and the yield for Cash over the period July 2002 (or inception if not available by then) through September 2025, we find that:
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