A reader suggested that we review the stock market commentary of Abby Joseph Cohen, partner and chief U.S. investment strategist at Goldman Sachs. Her public record, available most robustly via MarketWatch and Bloomberg.com, focuses on her year-end forward forecasts for the levels of major stock market indexes, such as the S&P 500 Index. She seems to derive her forecasts principally from earnings forecasts. All citations found, concentrated in the period 1999-2002, are bullish. Given the quantitative nature of her forecasts, we focus on Abby Joseph Cohen’s annual S&P 500 Index forecasts made near the end of each prior year versus two benchmarks: (1) the expert averages from the annual Business Week stock market forecast surveys (discontinued in 2008); and, (2) simple mechanical extrapolations of the actual historical annual performance of the S&P 500 Index. Using data for 1999-2011 (13 years), we find that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Nadeem Walayat’s commentary on the U.S. stock market since mid-2006. Nadeem Walayat is editor of The Market Oracle, “with 25 years experience in trading and investing.” The Market Oracle presents “in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on multiple views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

A reader requested that we evaluate the performance of Jim Rohrbach, president of Investment Models, Inc.. According to his web site, Mr. Rohrbach’s stock market timing service (based on the proprietary Rohrbach Index, or RIX) is “designed for timing retirement no-load mutual funds and individual stocks by avoiding stock market crashes and helping investors keep their IRA in bull markets and out of bear markets using technical analysis timing models.” He advises that: “The stock market can be timed!!! Don’t believe the ‘experts’ who tell you that it can’t be done.” Using his self-reported recent trading record, daily dividend-adjusted closes for S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) and daily yields for 13-week Treasury bills (T-bills) over the period 3/24/03 through 12/31/09, we find that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary of Curt Hesler since January 2003. Curt Hesler has published Professional Timing Service since 1978, noting that: “One thing I have learned is that you must be cautious to be successful.” He makes past issues of his bi-monthly newsletter, usually including an outlook for broad U.S. stock market indexes, available on a delayed basis. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Steve Sjuggerud’s commentary on the U.S. stock market via the DailyWealth archive since October 2005. DailyWealth is an informational service of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, which is owned by or affiliated with Agora Inc. Stansberry & Associates Investment Research also offers Steve Sjuggerud’s True Wealth, “a monthly investment advisory that boasts one of the largest followings in the world,” claiming that: “Since 2001, Steve has consistently booked double- and triple-digit returns for his subscribers.” There is no trade data to justify this claim. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary of the Aden sisters via MarketWatch.com since June 2006. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden are self-described as “two of the most influential and well known investment analysts, writers and lecturers in the world. They are the co-editors and publishers of the Aden Forecast, a monthly investment newsletter, which specializes in the U.S. stock market, mutual funds, U.S. interest rates and bonds, the international stock and bond markets, as well as the foreign exchange and precious metals markets.” They offer a public track record of successful recommendations, but not enough information to determine whether these recommendations are representative of all their recommendations or fully exploitable by subscribers. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As requested by a reader, we evaluate here Steven Jon Kaplan’s commentary at True Contrarian since May 2002 (the earliest listed before a 5/22/11 reset that discarded posts prior to 5/18/11). Steven Jon Kaplan states that “each issue will feature my intermediate-term financial outlook, my long-term financial outlook.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the stock market commentary of Dennis Slothower via Zacks.com and MarketWatch.com since June 2002. Dennis Slothower, who is editor of the Stealth Stocks and On the Money newsletters. According to Stealth Stocks, Mr. Slothower “is an absolute master at taking into account how world news – the true ‘market-moving events’ – will impact each and every investment in his trading portfolio.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Gary Shilling regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Gary Shilling is founder of A. Gary Shilling & Company, Inc., which uses a “top down” approach, “emphasizing the major themes, developed from our economic, financial, and political analysis, that will influence business and financial markets in the short and long runs. The themes are developed carefully, and we normally stick to them as they unfold, avoiding whipsawing our clients…by constant radical changes in our outlook.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary since late 2000 of Bernie Schaeffer, Chairman of Schaeffer’s Investment Research and Senior Editor of “Bernie Schaeffer’s Option Advisor,” via Business Week, MarketWatch.com,  TheStreet.com and SchaeffersResearch.com. According to the latter, “Mr. Schaeffer is widely recognized as an expert on equity and index options, investor sentiment and market timing.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading