Tech Premium Boost for Simplest Asset Class Momentum Strategy?

In response to “Tech Equity Premium?”, a subscriber asked about substituting Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) in the “Simplest Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy?”, which each month holds SPY or iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) depending on which has the higher total return over the last three months. To investigate, we run a horse race between the strategy executed with SPY (SPY-TLT) and the strategy executed with QQQ (QQQ-TLT). We focus on compound annual growth rates (CAGR) and maximum drawdowns (MaxDD) as performance metrics and assess robustness across lookback intervals of one to 12 months. Using monthly dividend-adjusted prices for SPY, QQQ and TLT during July 2002 (limited by TLT) through May 2024, we find that: (more…)