Investing Research Articles

Is relevant news sentiment from other countries additive to local news in predicting country stock market returns? In their August 2025 paper entitled “Global News Networks and Return Predictability”, Gustavo Freire, Ali Moin, Alberto Quaini and Amar Soebhag compare the effects of local versus global news sentiment, organized into 260 major themes, on country stock… Keep Reading

Is the part of the return/alpha of a equity factor that is not associated with simple changes in factor valuation (ratio of long side average price-to-book value ratio to short side average price-to-book value ratio) especially predictive of future factor returns? In their September 2025 paper entitled “Revaluation Alpha”, Robert Arnott, Sina Ehsani, Campbell Harvey… Keep Reading

Does alignment of return-based factors with informed traders and against noise traders produce a superior model of stock returns? In his August 2025 paper entitled “An Auto-Residual Factor Model”, Malek Alkshaik introduces and tests a 5-factor Auto-Residual Factor Model of stock returns comprised of: market excess return; market capitalization (size); residual short-term reversal (last month);… Keep Reading

Should investors relish opportunities to invest in private equity? In his July 2025 paper entitled “The Private Equity Illusion: Revisiting Risks, Returns, and Realities”, Simon Nocera analyzes the narrative that private equity is a superior asset class that delivers higher returns at lower risk than, and diversifies, public equity markets. Using investment industry data, academic… Keep Reading

Does the ICE BofAML MOVE Index, the implied volatility of U.S. Treasuries as derived from options on U.S. Treasuries with maturities 2, 5, 10 and 30 years, usefully predict U.S. stock market and U.S. Treasury bond returns? To investigate, we perform two sets of calculations using SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as a proxy for… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 9/15/25 through 9/19/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Are hedge fund-oriented strategies, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider 10 ETFs, five live and five dead (in order of inception dates): NYLI Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI) – seeks investment results that track, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYLI Hedge Multi-Strategy Index, which… Keep Reading

Are managed futures, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider six managed futures ETFs, five live and one dead: WisdomTree Managed Futures Strategy (WTMF) – seeks positive total returns in rising or falling markets that are uncorrelated with broad market equity and fixed income returns via diversified combination of commodities, currencies… Keep Reading

Can investors exploit the uneven playing field of leveraged and inverse exchange-traded fund (LETF) share creation and redemption? In his August 2025 paper entitled “Leveraged ETF Issuance During Market Stress and the Mechanics of Profit: Who’s the Dog, Who’s the Tail?”, Rob Bezdjian focuses on daily share creation and redemption for ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ),… Keep Reading

What variables drive differences in price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) across U.S. stocks? In the September 2025 revision of their paper entitled “The Cross-section of Subjective Expectations: Understanding Prices and Anomalies”, Ricardo Delao, Xiao Han and Sean Myers analyze cross-sectional P/E differences of U.S. common stocks by comparing: Professional forecasts of earnings growth, return and P/E over… Keep Reading