Investing Research Articles

Are days with strong stock market return reversals predictive of the future trend? To check, we we use daily opens, lows, highs and closes of the S&P 500 Index to define the following: Reversal – days with both (1) lows more than 1% below the open and (2) highs more than 1% above the open…. Keep Reading

A subscriber asked about the lead-lag relationship between S&P 500 earnings and S&P 500 Index returns. To investigate, we relate actual aggregate S&P 500 operating and as-reported earnings to S&P 500 Index returns at both quarterly and annual frequencies. Earnings forecasts are available well in advance of returns. Actual earnings releases for a quarter occur… Keep Reading

Does a constant real annual withdrawal rate of 4% of household savings at retirement, derived from U.S. asset return experience, really protect against financial ruin? In their September 2022 paper entitled “The Safe Withdrawal Rate: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets”, Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg, Michael O’Doherty and Richard Sias consider data from… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/17/22 through 10/21/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Subscribers have questioned selecting assets with negative past returns within the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS). Inclusion of Cash as one of the assets in the SACEMS universe of exchange-traded funds (ETF) prevents the SACEMS Top 1 portfolio from holding an asset with negative past returns. To test full dual momentum versions of… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/10/22 through 10/14/22. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Are many accepted equity factors/return anomalies artifacts of the secular decline in interest rates during their discovery sample periods? In their September 2022 paper entitled “The Factor Multiverse: The Role of Interest Rates in Factor Discovery”, Jules van Binsbergen, Liang Ma and Michael Schwert study the role of the secular decline in interest rates since… Keep Reading

Do formal asset allocation methods specify a portfolio allocation to bitcoin (BTC)? In his September 2022 paper entitled “Optimal Allocation to Cryptocurrencies in Diversified Portfolios”, Artur Sepp applies four quantitative methods to estimate optimal allocations to bitcoin within systematically rebalanced portfolios. He considers: two risk-only methods based on either equal risk contribution or maximum diversification;… Keep Reading

How does elimination of broker commissions on stock trades affect individual investors? In their September 2022 paper entitled “Fee the People: Retail Investor Behavior and Trading Commission Fees”, Omri Even-Tov, Kimberlyn George, Shimon Kogan and Eric So examine how retail investors respond to selective elimination of trading commissions (fees) on the international trading platform eToro…. Keep Reading

Market commentators sometimes cite a high Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), the options-implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index as an indicator of investor sentiment and therefore a contrarian signal for the stock market. Specifically, a relatively high (low) VIX indicates panic (complacency) and therefore pending stock market strength (weakness). Does evidence… Keep Reading