Investing Research Articles

…investors are willing to pay very high premiums, perhaps irrationally high, to insure against large losses in their stock portfolios. Sellers of this insurance can earn high average returns.

…double 9-to-1 up day events may reliably signal abnormal short-term returns, but designing a system to exploit such rare and unpredictable signals is problematic.

…game-like trading-enabled visual abstractions of the stock market may encourage individuals to see the market as amusement and treat trading like “edgework,” wherein experiencing anticipated risk becomes an end in itself.

Is the Bullish Percent Index a useful indicator of overall stock market or sector direction by reliably identifying overbought/oversold conditions from which stock prices are likely to revert? In a study published in the 2005 Journal of Technical Analysis, Andrew Hyer relates the simple average Bullish Percent across 40 stock market sectors (BPAVG) to future… Keep Reading

…the difference between expert and non-expert performance in investing and financial forecasting is small, making it difficult to discover the nature of financial expertise. Tests of expertise must be realistic.

…fundamental analysis (especially accrual-related indication of poor earnings quality) helps valuation-motivated short sellers identify stocks likely to experience reversal of strong past returns.

…in international markets, secondary share offerings reliably predict poor future stock returns, but share buybacks predict good future returns only for small firms.

…evidence does not support a model of funds flowing predictably back and forth between stocks and T-bills as investors overreact and correct to perceived crises.

…unusual trading by insiders helps isolate which short sellers know what they are doing, and vice versa.

…successful momentum trading may depend critically on restricting consideration to stocks with the lowest total transaction costs.