The conventional Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio (CAPE), or P/E10, divides current real S&P 500 Index level by average annual aggregate real index earnings as reported over the prior 10 years. This approach ignores stocks added...
Do optimists dominate the pricing of stocks for firms with unusual/difficult to interpret fundamentals, thereby overpricing them? In his December 2025 paper entitled “Hard to Process: Atypical Firms and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns”,...
Investor mood may affect financial markets. Sports may affect investor mood. The biggest mood-mover among sporting events in the U.S. is likely the National Football League’s Super Bowl. Is the week before the Super Bowl...
We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/26/26 through 1/30/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for February 2026. SACEMS rankings are not very close, but markets are volatile....
One concern about simple momentum strategies is data snooping bias impounded in selection of the lookback interval(s) used to measure asset momentum. To circumvent this concern, we consider the following argument: The CBOE Volatility Index...
A subscriber asked about an update of “Simplest Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy?”, which each month holds SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) or iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) depending on which has the...
Does commercial and industrial (C&I) credit fuel business growth and thereby drive the stock market? To investigate, we relate changes in credit standards from the Federal Reserve Board’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank...
Do recent daily returns for a stock reliably predict its near-term performance? In their January 2026 paper entitled “A Unified Framework for Anomalies based on Daily Returns”, Nusret Cakici, Christian Fieberg, Gabor Neszveda, Robert Bianchi...
Do “great stock picks” from Forbes beat the market? To investigate, we evaluate stock picks for 2022, 2023, 2024 and via “10 Great Stock Picks for 2022 from Top-Performing Fund Managers”, “20 Great Stock Ideas...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/20/26 through 1/23/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Each year in December, Barron’s publishes its list of the best 10 stocks for the next year. Do these picks on average beat the market? To investigate, we scrape the web to find these lists...
Having been trained by humans on human information, do Large Language Models (LLM) behave like human investors? In their January 2026 paper entitled “Artificially Biased Intelligence: Does AI Think Like a Human Investor?”, Javad Keshavarz,...
Have we entered an era when only the biggest firms can afford the massive investments needed to field hot, globally scalable technologies (e.g., artificial intelligence)? To investigate, we ask Grok to identify the 10 largest...
Past research relating U.S. stock market returns to the party holding the Presidency mostly concludes that Democratic presidents are better for the stock market than Republican presidents. However, Presidents share power conferred by the electorate...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/12/26 through 1/16/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
“Exploiting the Presidential Cycle and Party in Power” summarizes strategies that hold small stocks (large stocks or bonds) when Democrats (Republicans) hold the U.S. presidency. How has this strategy performed in recent years? To investigate,...
How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) focused on development of robotics-artificial intelligence (AI), an arguably hot area of technology, perform? To investigate, we consider eight of the largest such ETFs, all currently available, as follows: Robo Global...
The full-year Trading Calendar indicates that the U.S. stock market has three phases over the calendar year, corresponding to calendar year trading days 1-84 (January-April), 85-210 (May-October) and 211-252 (November-December). What are typical stock market...
The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2025. The actual total (core) inflation rate is about the same as (about the same as) forecasted. We have...
Does lack of critical assessment of cause and effect undermine reliability of findings in scientific research? In his December 2025 presentation package entitled “Investment Lessons from Cosmology: Draw Your Assumptions Before Your Conclusions”, Marcos Lopez...
Time-series momentum (TSMOM) is a well-documented finding that past returns predict next-period returns for many asset types. Is the relationship between past and future performance linear? In their December 2025 paper entitled “Nonlinear Time Series...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 1/5/26 through 1/9/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
A Securities Information Processor (SIP) aggregates quotes and trades from all U.S. stock exchanges to feed the NYSE Trade and Quote (TAQ) database, used in much finance research to (for example) estimate effective bid-ask spreads...