Investing Research Articles

See the notes on Chapter 6 in “Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals (Chapter-by-Chapter Review)” for some qualitative aspects of data snooping bias. The book itself presents the mathematics of correcting for data snooping bias.

…evidence from simple tests on the S&P 500 Index since the mid-1990s does not support a belief that closing levels of the market gravitate toward round numbers. Nor do they support a belief that round numbers of the index systematically act like either support or resistance.

Norman Fosback discusses two investing systems on fosback.com: (1) Fosback’s Fund Forecaster; and (2) The Seasonality Timing System…

…investors may be able to achieve abnormal returns by combining value and earnings surprises, with most of the benefit coming from value stocks with positive earnings surprises and positive earnings announcement abnormal returns.

…evidence provides weak support for a belief that managers of U.S. bond mutual funds can on average time the bond market, but fund costs/fees offset any associated net outperformance of reasonable benchmarks.

There is not much information on the site…

…evidence from a broad international test indicates that switches to/from daylight savings time have no reliable effect on short-term stock returns.

You can use these three categories (and key word searches) to identify similar analyses and thereby get a second opinion on specific anomalies.

…investors may find The Options Trading Body of Knowledge useful as a broad source of information on how strategies for stock options work, but they should be skeptical of any judgments it offers on strategy profitability/risk and recognize that rules for other kinds of options may be different.

Nassim Taleb offers some vague guidance on avoiding wildly bad events. See…