Stock Price as a Future Return Indicator
February 24, 2009 - Calendar Effects, Technical Trading
…investors may be able to exploit a stock price effect by focusing on the associated abnormally positive return during the first calendar quarter.
February 24, 2009 - Calendar Effects, Technical Trading
…investors may be able to exploit a stock price effect by focusing on the associated abnormally positive return during the first calendar quarter.
February 23, 2009 - Economic Indicators
…adjusting asset class allocations according to key economic indicators may help investors manage risk and/or boost long-term returns.
February 20, 2009 - Fundamental Valuation, Sentiment Indicators
…even though S&P 500 index timing rules based on fundamental indicators and investor sentiment indicators might significantly beat a buy-and-hold benchmark when evaluated in isolation, this outperformance generally evaporates after correcting for data snooping bias. In other words, luck is the dominant differentiator of rule performance.
February 19, 2009 - Equity Premium
…finance and economics professors on average currently estimate that investors require an annual excess return from equities in the range 5% to 7%.
February 18, 2009 - Individual Investing, Investing Expertise
Do individuals who use investment advisors achieve higher returns than those who do not? Two closely related papers entitled “Investment Advice and Individual Investor Portfolio Performance” of January 2009 by Marc Kramer and “The Impact of Financial Advisors on Individual Investor Portfolio Performance” of March 2012 by Marc Kramer and Robert Lensink address this question…. Keep Reading
February 17, 2009 - Big Ideas
…the way to survive the fat-tailedness of investment returns is through limiting exposure to such investments.
February 16, 2009 - Size Effect, Value Premium
…evidence from this 19th century test supports belief in the persistence of the size effect and the value premium for equities.
February 13, 2009 - Individual Gurus
As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the intermediate-term S&P 500 index calls of Tim Ord via MarketWeb since 1/20/06. Tim Ord is is president, editor and publisher of The Ord Oracle, “devoted to the practice of supply and demand trading” using “a new kind of charting program designed for showing supply and demand… Keep Reading
February 13, 2009 - Individual Gurus
…the portfolio returns of “Strategy Lab” participants since late 2001 vary widely, but aggregate results offer some support for the belief that experts on average can consistently outperform the broad stock market.
February 12, 2009 - Fundamental Valuation
Is firm total asset growth rate an independently valuable indicator of future stock returns? In their January 2009 paper entitled “The Asset Growth Effect in Stock Returns”, Michael Cooper, Huseyin Gulen and Michael Schill review the evidence for a strong asset growth effect in U.S. stock returns unexplained by other widely cited effects. Using firm… Keep Reading