How About Mike Paulenoff?
December 3, 2009 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 36%
…the sample does not support a belief that his financial markets forecasting ability is remarkable.
December 3, 2009 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 36%
…the sample does not support a belief that his financial markets forecasting ability is remarkable.
December 2, 2009 - Fundamental Valuation
…investors looking for long-term stock holdings may want to focus on firms that consistently meet (not beat) consensus earnings forecasts. However, momentum traders may want to lean slightly toward earnings overachievers.
November 30, 2009 - Fundamental Valuation, Investing Expertise
…relatively inexperienced investors should find Fire Your Stock Analyst! a useful guide for analyzing U.S. stocks. However, the book presents no benchmarks for investing performance and does not support diversification across asset classes.
November 27, 2009 - Strategic Allocation, Volatility Effects
…evidence from a limited sample period (in terms of number of bull and bear markets) indicates that optimized leverage beats both fixed leverage and no leverage. However, with unlucky initial conditions, even optimized leverage may underperform no leverage over a period of many years.
November 27, 2009 - Individual Gurus - Guru Accuracy: 59%
As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here stock market forecasts of John Buckingham, Chief Investment Officer of Al Frank Asset Management, who emphasizes careful stock selection, broad diversification and a long investing horizon. He is editor of the Prudent Speculator and author of The Buckingham Report (as much promotional as informative). The few forecasts… Keep Reading
November 25, 2009 - Buybacks-Secondaries
…evidence suggests that investors may be able to predict which SEOs will engender the most pronounced subsequent market underperformance by measuring the level of surprise in the SEO announcement.
November 24, 2009 - Big Ideas
Reasons why it is likely unproductive to attempt to rank firm characteristics or factors according to predictive power for future stock returns, or strategies according to modeled alpha, include…
November 24, 2009 - Fundamental Valuation
…investors may be able to generate substantial average abnormal returns by systematically taking short (long) positions in stocks of firms with extremely bad (good) quarterly earnings for several months after respective earnings announcements.
November 23, 2009 - Mutual/Hedge Funds
…empirical analysis indicates that ignoring hedge fund withdrawal restrictions may result in material overestimation of the benefits of including hedge funds in a portfolio.
November 20, 2009 - Fundamental Valuation, Size Effect, Value Premium
…evidence from narrow portfolios (top 30 stocks) over a recent short test period indicate that GARP-value-size strategies perform well, with the magic formula (EBIT/EV and ROC combined), EBIT/EV alone and E/P alone excelling.