Investing Research Articles

…given the fairly small size of any abnormalities, standard deviations of returns that are much larger than any abnormalities and the rareness of signals, it seems unlikely that a trader could materially exploit bullish and bearish engulfing candlesticks for the S&P 500 Index at the portfolio level.

In his 2010 book entitled Harmonic Trading: Volume Two Advanced Strategies for Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets, author Scott Carney “offers unprecedented strategies that identify the areas where overall trend divergence and harmonic pattern completions define the most critical technical levels. In addition, the new ideas presented in this material advance… Keep Reading

…Harmonic Trading: Volume One describes an approach to developing expectations for the behavior of financial asset and asset class prices based on the belief that these prices naturally follow trajectories (form patterns) generated by a process governed by Fibonacci ratios. Although the book offers many examples of pattern analysis, it does not quantify the benefits of such analysis in terms of per-trade or portfolio level profitability.

…evidence from the most credible models of the historical U.S. equity risk premium converge to an annual value in the range 4% to 4.5% during 1872-1950 and 1951-2008.

…evidence indicates that portfolios constructed from ranking stocks based on complex valuation metrics may materially outperform those constructed from simple valuation metrics.

Navellier & Associates, Inc. offers one Navellier-branded mutual fund, Navellier Fundamental A (NFMAX), “designed to achieve the highest possible returns while minimizing risk.” Selection criteria for fund holdings, re-measured quarterly, “include earnings growth, profit margins, reasonable price/earnings ratios based on expected future earnings, and various other fundamental criteria.” Using NFMAX weekly adjusted closing prices from… Keep Reading

…evidence suggests that investors may be able to gain an edge by considering the recent historical relationship between average stock price variance and future short-term market return.

…for the sake of realism, investment strategy developers should rigorously examine the defensibility of any assumptions embedded in their inference processes.

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to earn abnormal returns by exploiting systematic outperformance (underperformance) of stocks with very low (high) historical accrual volatilities.

…experimental evidence indicates that participation in stock message boards/forums increases a typical investor’s propensity to trade and decreases actual investment performance. Investors may want to factor this effect into their information search and processing practices.