Investing Research Articles

Does the latest generation of commodity futures indexes, which systematically exploits both backwardation and contango, outperform its predecessors? In her July 2012 paper entitled “Comparing First, Second and Third Generation Commodity Indices”, Joelle Miffre reviews the evolution of commodity futures indexes and assesses the performance of three groups of these indexes: (1) first generation, which are long-only and… Keep Reading

Does mean-variance optimization reliably beat simple equal weighting? In his August 2012 paper entitled “The Efficiency of Mean-Variance Optimization with In-depth Covariance Matrix Estimation and Portfolio Rebalancing”, Joonas Hämäläinen tests how many of 96 different mean-variance optimization implementations based on daily data outperform simple equal weighting after accounting for trading frictions. He considers three methods of determining weights… Keep Reading

How and how well does mean-variance investing work? In his August 2012 draft book chapter entitled “Mean‐Variance Investing”, Andrew Ang compares outcomes for complex asset allocation strategies based on forecasted return statistics to those for very simple strategies such as equal weighting. He illustrates with a horse race among allocation strategies applied to four asset classes (U.S. government bonds,… Keep Reading

Based on results from “Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy Performance”, “Does the Turn-of-the-Month Effect Work for Sectors?” and “Long-term SMA and TOTM Combination Strategy”, a subscriber proposed: “Have you ever thought of combining the three? When SPY is above a long term average, buy the best performing sector ETF using the TOTM strategy.” To investigate,… Keep Reading

Do patterns formed by Japanese candlesticks, which summarize asset price behavior with a candle and two shadows indicating open-high-low-close prices over a given interval, work as intraday technical trading signals? In their August 2012 paper entitled “The Intraday Performance of Market Timing Strategies and Trading Systems Based on Japanese Candlesticks”, Matthieu Duvinage, Paolo Mazza and Mikael Petitjean investigate the power… Keep Reading

How well do trend-following rules work when applied to the S&P 500 Index? In the March 2012 version of their paper entitled “Breaking into the Blackbox: Trend Following, Stop Losses, and the Frequency of Trading: The Case of the S&P 500”, Steve Thomas, James Seaton, Andrew Clare and Peter Smith evaluate a variety of simple daily… Keep Reading

Is it possible to determine when long-term stock market reversion is imminent? In their August 2012 paper entitled “Long-Term Return Reversal: Evidence from International Market Indices”, Mirela Malina and Graham Bornholt compare the performances of a conventional contrarian strategy that considers only long-term past returns to that of a “late-stage” contrarian strategy that buys (sells) long-term… Keep Reading

In a series of emails, Jim Rohrbach, president of Investment Models, Inc., expressed disagreement with the findings of “Jim Rohrbach’s Technical Timing Approach” and requested removal of the review. So that readers can assess the basis of his request, here are the verbatim  emails, with raw links replaced by descriptive links:

How should investors view the predictability of stock market returns and volatility? In sections 5 and 6 of the July 2012 version of his draft chapter entitled “Equity Market Level”, Andrew Ang examines the predictability of the equity risk premium and equity market volatility. He also addresses the exploitability of any predictive power found. Using… Keep Reading

What is growth investing, and how well does it work? How can investors enhance this investment style? In his July 2012 paper entitled “Growth Investing: Betting on the Future?”, Aswath Damodaran examines different approaches to growth investing: focusing on companies with small market capitalization; playing initial public offerings (IPO); seeking growth at a reasonable price (GARP);… Keep Reading