Investing Research Articles

Is there a reliable signal for exiting a stock momentum strategy before months during which the strategy crashes? In the June 2012 version of their paper entitled “Tail Risk in Momentum Strategy Returns”, Kent Daniel, Ravi Jagannathan and Soohun Kim investigate conditions under which a basic U.S. stock momentum strategy performs very poorly and develop… Keep Reading

Does the condition of S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) futures relative to spot VIX (contango or backwardation) predict exploitable VIX futures returns? In their June 2012 paper entitled “The VIX Futures Basis: Evidence and Trading Strategies”, David Simon and Jim Campasano investigate the predictability and exploitability of VIX futures returns based on whether VIX futures are… Keep Reading

How do fine wines fare recently against stocks as investment vehicles? In the June 2012 version of their paper entitled “A Study of the Evolution of High-End Wines in Switzerland”, Philippe Masset, Jean-Philippe Weisskopf and Vincent Deboccard construct the recent evolution of fine wine prices in the Swiss market (among the world’s largest for fine wines)…. Keep Reading

Whenever the dollar persistently appreciates or depreciates versus some other currency, experts theorize. A depreciating dollar is good because U.S. exports boom and domestic employment rises. Or, a depreciating dollar is bad because capital flees the U.S., and import prices (especially for crude oil) spur inflation. Are there reliable and exploitable relationships between the euro/dollar… Keep Reading

What drives the momentum effect among individual U.S. stocks? In their June 2012 paper entitled “Momentum, Risk, and Underreaction”, Mark Rachwalski and Quan Wen investigate the sources of profits for momentum strategies applied to individual stocks. They measure momentum profitability as average monthly returns to three series of equal-weighted hedge portfolios that each month are long… Keep Reading

A reader commented and asked: “Several of my friends swear by the McClellan Summation Index for timing medium term bull/bear moves. Have you any evaluation of its usefulness?” The McClellan Summation Index derives from the McClellan Oscillator, a technical indicator developed in 1969 by Sherman and Marian McClellan, for which the daily input is the… Keep Reading

Is planning for the worst case paramount in asset class allocation? In their May 2012 paper entitled “Minimax: Portfolio Choice Based on Pessimistic Decision Making”, Steffen Schaarschmidt and Peter Schanbacher examine the worst case scenario as a basis for portfolio optimization (Minimax strategy). Specifically, each year they run Monte Carlo simulations based on the last 250 trading… Keep Reading

What calendar and technical factors drive the size effect? In the June 2012 version of his paper entitled “Predictable Dynamics in the Small Stock Premium”, Valeriy Zakamulin explores the interaction of the size effect with the January effect and both prior-month and prior-year stock market returns. He defines the size effect based on the Small-Minus-Big (SMB)… Keep Reading

Do top-performing mutual funds reliably continue to be top performers. In their June 2012 semiannual report entitled “Does Past Performance Matter? S&P Persistence Scorecard”, Standard and Poor’s summarizes performance persistence statistics for U.S. mutual funds overall and for funds grouped by capitalization focus of holdings. They measure persistence of the top 25% (quartile) and top… Keep Reading

How has recent data meshed with seminal research on commodity futures? In the June 2012 version of their paper entitled “Commodity Investing”, Geert Rouwenhorst and Ke Tang review and update research relevant to investing in commodity futures, with trader positions recorded via Commitments of Traders (COT) reports issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission monthly during 1986 through 1992,… Keep Reading