Investing Research Articles

Does time series (intrinsic or absolute) return momentum work everywhere all the time? In their June 2017 paper entitled “A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing”, Brian Hurst, Yao Ooi and Lasse Pedersen investigate the robustness of intrinsic momentum across 67 assets over 137 years. Robustness tests address subperiods, market return/volatility states and economic conditions. They rely mostly… Keep Reading

Is recent Fama-French 5-factor alpha (accounting for market, size, book-to-market, profitability and investment risks) a useful predictor of U.S. equity sector performance? In other words, is there an alpha momentum anomaly at the sector level? In their June 2017 paper entitled “US Sector Rotation with Five-Factor Fama-French Alphas”, Golam Sarwar, Cesario Mateus and Natasa Todorovic examine 5-factor alphas of… Keep Reading

Do stock return momentum and reversal strategies work better when focused on certain intraday intervals rather than close-to-close, according to whether trades are primarily exploiting information or supplying liquidity? In his April 2017 paper entitled “Reversal, Momentum and Intraday Returns”, Haoyu Xu examines intraday versions of momentum and reversal anomalies, with focus on the first two… Keep Reading

Michael Covel prefaces the 2017 Fifth Edition of his book, Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets, by stating that: “The 233,092 words in this book are the result of my near 20-year hazardous journey for the truth about this trading called trend following. …Trend following…aims to capture the majority… Keep Reading

Do hedge funds demonstrate the exploitability of real-time economic data? In their June 2017 paper entitled “Can Hedge Funds Time the Market?”, Michael Brandt, Federico Nucera and Giorgio Valente evaluate whether all or some equity hedge funds vary equity market exposure in response to real-time economic data, and (if so) whether doing so improves their performance. Their proxy… Keep Reading

Is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which relates the return of an asset to its non-diversifiable risk, called beta, worth learning? In his June 2017 paper (provocatively) entitled “Is It Ethical to Teach That Beta and CAPM Explain Something?”, Pablo Fernandez tackles this question. Based on the body of relevant research, he concludes that:

What is the most effective way to hedge against equity market crashes? In their June 2017 paper entitled “The Best Strategies for the Worst Crises”, Michael Cook, Edward Hoyle, Matthew Sargaison, Dan Taylor and Otto Van Hemert examine active and passive strategies with potential to generate positive returns during the worst crises. They test these strategies across the seven S&P 500 Index… Keep Reading

A reader suggested looking at the strategy described in “Kaeppel’s Corner: Sector Seasonality” (from November 2005, link no longer in place) and updated in “Kaeppel’s Corner: Get Me Back, Clarence” (from October 2007, link no longer in place). The steps of this calendar-based sector strategy are: Buy Fidelity Select Technology (FSPTX) at the October close. Switch from… Keep Reading

Does unusual behavior of the distribution of stock betas predict overall market behavior? In her March 2017 paper entitled “Beta Dispersion and Market-Timing”, Laura-Chloé Kuntz investigates the attractiveness of stock market timing strategies based on the dispersion of stock betas. She calculates betas using rolling windows of three or 12 months of daily returns. She considers… Keep Reading

Does the options-based expected volatility of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index (expected volatility of VIX, or VVIX) convey useful information about future returns of related assets? In their April 2017 paper entitled “The Volatility-of-Volatility Term Structure”, Nicole Branger, Hendrik Hülsbusch and Alexander Kraftschik investigate the VVIX term structure via principal component analysis. They interpret the first, second and third principal… Keep Reading