Investing Research Articles

It is arguable that both momentum investing (trend-following, such as Decision Moose) and value investing (valuation-implied mispricing, such as Magic Formula Investing) are timing approaches at different horizons.

...financial advisors may be able to improve advisee satisfaction by refining the typical approach to risk tolerance measurement and accommodation. The self-advised can apply such refinement to themselves.

...evidence indicates that decomposition of valuation ratios into long-term trends and shorter-term (business cycle) variations may substantially enhance their abilities to predict stock market returns.

...evidence from limited tests suggests that ETF pair trading based on relative returns/volatilities may outperform simple passive benchmarks.

...evidence indicates that short sellers are on average skilled public information processors, successfully discriminating between future underperformers and outperformers, with exploitation concentrated after several categories of news releases.

...evidence indicates that U.S. stock market returns may be significantly predictable during economic and political crises, but not during market bubbles and crashes. Investor misreaction to crises, not economic fundamentals, appear to drive stock return...

...evidence suggests that investors may be able to exploit market volatility derived from forward-looking (implied volatility) measures, especially the persistent diffusion volatility component.

The probability of achieving such perfection is vanishingly small (in other words, zero).

 A reader suggested that we evaluate the stock market forecasts of Charles Biderman, founder and CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research. The TrimTabs perspective “relies on the insight that price [of equities in aggregate] is a...

...evidence indicates that art in aggregate: (1) has delivered a competitive mean return, but with extremely high volatility, over the past 24 years; (2) is not a good hedge for stocks; and, (3) generally offers...

...evidence indicates that positive (negative) aggregate earnings surprises portend higher (lower) future inflation/discount rates, and therefore negative (positive) future stock market returns and increases (decreases) in bond yields.

...the stocks of companies unadmired by the ostensibly well-informed may well outperform the stocks of the companies admired.

...evidence from simple tests on available data supports a belief that Timothy Sykes can identify pump-and-dump patterns in real time with economically meaningful consistency, but scalability is multiply constrained such that his subscribers may not...

...investors may find Put Option Strategies for Smarter Trading useful as a source of information on how put option strategies work, but they should be skeptical that any examples it presents on strategy profitability are...

Inserting daily CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) history for 12/12/05-1/13/10 into the model generates no breakout signals over the four-year sample period.

There is some research relevant to your question based on mutual/hedge fund and fund manager data. See...

...evidence indicates that buy-write strategies generally underperform their underlying stocks in Australia.

...evidence from detailed, but somewhat aged data, indicates that a typical futures speculator makes money by taking a position opposite that of hedgers in aggregate.

...evidence indicates that hedge funds employing quantitative analysis strategies tend to outperform those that use qualitative strategies, perhaps based on superior market timing.

...evidence based on straightforward assumptions and tests does not support a belief that breakout indications after Bollinger Band-within-Keltner Channel conditions are reliable.

...available data is insufficient to determine whether Phil Erlanger's Research is exploitable on a net basis. Portfolio overhead and biases in self-reported hypothetical returns could offset reported gross market outperformance for most investors.

Is the aggregate sentiment of futures traders predictive for asset returns? In the June 2008 update of their paper entitled “How to Time the Commodity Market”, Devraj Basu, Roel Oomen and Alexander Stremme investigate whether...

...evidence from Zacks representative managed account and mutual fund results do not support a belief that realistic implementations of Zacks Rank data generate substantial net outperformance.

...investors may want to ensure that they base trading strategies on real-time expectations net of search costs and comprehensive trading frictions, with a substantial margin to accommodate data snooping bias.

We evaluate here the New York Metro “Bottom Line” commentary of Jim Cramer regarding the stock market via his archived articles since May 2000. Jim Cramer is among the most visible and prolific members of...