...evidence indicates that the value premium and momentum effect exist at a gross level among frontier market stocks and that these anomalies are both mutually diversifying and diversifying for a global portfolio.
...evidence indicates that investors may be able to outperform a benchmark emerging markets index by exploiting simple country-level value metrics.
...evidence indicates that both fund expenses and dividend taxes constitute substantial drags on European index funds compared to underlying indexes. In other words, each investor may want to account for the personal effect of dividend...
Generalizations from the body of equity price trend research are: (1) stocks tend to exhibit short-term reversal, intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversion; and, (2) small capitalization and high-volatility stocks tend to exhibit the strongest momentum....
...evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit interest rate trend changes derived from Federal Reserve policy pivots to boost net risk-adjusted returns from bond holdings.
Reader Mike Korell of ChartsEdge suggested an evaluation of his own S&P 500 Index forecasts for inclusion in Gurus. These “stock market forecasts are based on cycle data which has been analyzed by a Pattern...
...investors should assess and compare asset classes based on dynamic estimates of respective risk premiums (implied returns derived from current prices and estimated cash flows) to guide asset class allocation and market timing.
...estimates of the reward for risking equity investment vary with sample period, market and calculation method. Estimates tend to be higher when GDP is volatile and nominal interest rates are low.
...evidence from straightforward tests on a fairly small sample does not support a belief that Jim Rohrbach's timing approach (including service fees) beats simple benchmarks.
...evidence from analysis of market outperformance streaks among actively managed U.S. mutual funds indicates that fund manager skill is material to fund performance.
...evidence indicates that 3-month rolling VIX futures contracts may be the preferred way for investors to hedge stock market positions against crashes.
...evidence from an array of tests does not support beliefs that CFA designation, MBA degree and level of experience are critical success factors for investment managers.
...while The Gleason Report's Stock Value Model has performed well in real time (as claimed) since 1999, the performance sample is very small for reliable inference in terms of number of signals, and the most...
...evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit industrial metal prices as a leading indicator of stock market returns by recognizing that the relationship is positive (negative) for bad (good) economic conditions.
...evidence from simple tests of a publicly available set of "confirmed" Hindenburg Omens suggests the possibility of usefulness, but reservations regarding small sample size and potential sample bias are strong.
...evidence indicates that hedge fund investors should focus on funds with the best past performances and the most distinctive (uncorrelated) strategies.
...findings suggest that momentum, whether based on past returns or moving averages, exists to some degree for currencies. The studies appear not to address combining past returns and moving averages to predict currency market returns.
...evidence indicates that large (diversified) hedge fund investors may be able to exploit multiple predictive factors by averaging their predictive powers to enhance returns derived from selecting recent past winners.
...evidence from simple tests suggest that junk bond mutual funds exhibit return momentum perhaps exploitable via a multi-asset class allocation strategy (but not a standalone timing strategy).
Two charts added to “Market Models”, a backtest of the 6-month forecasts and a current valuation map, offer context for the projections from the Reversion-to-Value (RTV) Model and the Real Earnings Yield (REY) Model of...
...evidence from German stocks supports belief in the pervasiveness of a momentum effect and perhaps a value premium, but not market beta and size effects. Any sentiment effect is likely weak, specific to susceptible stocks...
...evidence from simple tests does not support application of the counter trend trade to the broad U.S. stock market.
...evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit momentum in U.S. corporate bond returns by focusing on past winners among low-grade issues.
...given the fairly small size of any abnormalities, standard deviations of returns that are much larger than any abnormalities and the rareness of signals, it seems unlikely that a trader could materially exploit bullish and...
In his 2010 book entitled Harmonic Trading: Volume Two Advanced Strategies for Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets, author Scott Carney “offers unprecedented strategies that identify the areas where overall trend divergence...