Is the implied volatility of implied volatility (CBOE VVIX Index), interpretable as a measure of changes in investor fear level, a useful indicator of future stock market returns? To investigate, we relate monthly VVIX and...
Do alternative investments (real estate, venture capital, private equity, hedge funds, private credit, infrastructure and energy investments) offer attractive returns and diversification, buffering investors from the vagaries of the stock market? In his March 2025...
What are the costs of mitigating tail risk via exchange-traded funds (ETF) designed to manage it? To investigate, we consider seven such ETFs, three dead and four live, as follows: VelocityShares Tail Risk Hedged Large...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/21/25 through 4/25/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
In response to “Measuring the Size Effect with Capitalization-based ETFs” and in view of the research summarized in “Quality-enhanced Size Effect”, a subscriber suggested using either iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) or Vanguard S&P...
How are behaviors of gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETF) similar and different? To investigate, we compare behaviors of iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) using daily and monthly return frequencies. We...
Do popular style-based exchange-traded funds (ETF) offer a reliable way to exploit the value premium? To investigate, we compare differences in returns (value-minus-growth) for each of the following three matched pairs of value-growth ETFs: iShares...
Is the ability of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms such as ChatGPT to summarize and interpret large volumes of financial data altering investor trading behaviors and thereby changing financial markets? In the April 2025 revision of...
Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) designed to make private equity available to individual investors beat the market? To investigate, we consider five ETFs, as follows: Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF (PSP) – invests in 40...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/14/25 through 4/17/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Subscribers asked whether substituting Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) in the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) improves outcomes. To investigate,...
The performance of conventional factor portfolios, long and short extreme quantiles of assets sorted on the factor metric, faces considerable skepticism (see “Compendium of Live ETF Factor/Niche Premium Capture Tests”). Is their some more surgical...
Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) designed to exploit sentiment indicators beat the market? To investigate, we consider three such ETFs, all currently available, as follows: VanEck Social Sentiment ETF (BUZZ) – invests in common stocks of...
Does the seasonal shift marked by the Easter holiday, with the U.S. stock market closed on the preceding Good Friday, produce anomalous returns? To investigate, we analyze the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/7/25 through 4/11/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
What is the state of bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETP)? In the March 2025 update of his brief paper entitled “One Year of Bitcoin Spot ETPs: A Brief Market and Fund Flow Analysis”, Nico Oefele analyzes...
What are the different ways of estimating the equity risk premium, and which one is best? In his March 2025 paper entitled “Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation, and Implications – The 2025 Edition”, Aswath...
Can large language models (LLM) help improve portfolio performance metrics, portfolio optimization and strategy feature discovery? In his three January-February 2025 papers entitled “AlphaSharpe: LLM-Driven Discovery of Robust Risk-Adjusted Metrics”, “AlphaPortfolio: Discovery of Portfolio Optimization...
Do opening gaps reliably indicate either reversal or continuation for the balance of the trading day? To investigate, we relate opening gaps to subsequent open-to-close returns for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). Using daily...
Are plans to use nuclear power to provide electricity for proliferating data centers driving attractive performance for uranium exchange-traded-funds (ETF)? To investigate, we consider four such ETFs, all currently available: VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF...
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/31/25 through 4/4/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...
Alternative trading platforms (such as Blue Ocean and Interactive Brokers) offer trading in many U.S. stocks and exchange traded products between 8PM and 4AM (nocturnal), letting U.S. retail and Asian investors trade continuously five days...
A subscriber asked about the historical experience (distribution of outcomes) of an investor with a 5-year horizon (holding period). To investigate we consider returns for 5-year intervals rolled annually at the end of the year...
A subscriber asked about an assertion that bitcoin (BTC) price trend/return predicts return of the S&P 500 Index (SP500). To investigate, we relate BTC returns to SP500 returns at daily, weekly and monthly frequencies. We...
Does the level of, or change in, the annual U.S. federal surplus/deficit systematically influence the U.S. stock market, perhaps by affecting consumption and thereby corporate earnings or by modifying inflation and thereby discount rates? To...