Investing Research Articles

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/10/23 through 4/14/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Can expert financial advisors beat the market? ChatGPT responds:

Can surveys of various expert and inexpert groups usefully predict stock market returns? In their March 2023 paper entitled “How Accurate Are Survey Forecasts on the Market?”, Songrun He, Jiaen Li and Guofu Zhou assess abilities of the following three surveys to predict S&P 500 Index returns: The Livingston (LIV) survey of professional forecasters from… Keep Reading

In late 2021, Kiplinger “used TipRanks data to unveil the crème de la crème, as viewed by Wall Street’s analyst community. Each stock currently earns a consensus Strong Buy rating based on opinions from analysts surveyed by TipRanks. Here are 22 of the pros’ highest-conviction stocks to invest in for 2022. As of today, these… Keep Reading

In late 2021, Forbes “queried Morningstar to identify some of the top-performing fund managers, all of whom consistently beat their benchmarks on a longer-term basis over either a three-year, five-year or ten-year period. Forbes spoke with five top portfolio managers overseeing nearly $25 billion in assets. Here are their best stock ideas for the coming… Keep Reading

In his 2007 book The Little Book That Makes You Rich: A Proven Market-Beating Formula for Growth Investing, expert Louis Navellier hypothesizes that growth (value) stocks tend to do relatively better when interest rates are rising (falling). Growth stocks benefit from the economic expansions associated with rising rates. Value stocks benefit from refinancing opportunities as… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/3/23 through 4/6/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A subscriber asked about practical exploitation of the hypothesis that the high and low of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) during 9:30AM-10:30AM are informative about its high and low during 10:31AM-4PM. To investigate, we obtain minute-by-minute open, high, low and close prices for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) for 2019. From that data, we extract the… Keep Reading

How does the U.S. stock return factor zoo, corrected for data snooping bias, change over time? In their March 2023 draft paper entitled “Useful Factors Are Fewer Than You Think”, Bin Chen, Qiyang Yu and Guofu Zhou tackle this question by asking: How many of 207 published factors remain significant after controlling for false discovery… Keep Reading

Is model complexity (large number of parameters) more an analytical benefit in predicting asset returns, or more an avenue to discover in-sample luck? In their March 2023 paper entitled “Complexity in Factor Pricing Models”, Antoine Didisheim, Shikun Ke, Bryan Kelly and Semyon Malamud examine the theoretical relationship between input complexity and output accuracy for machine… Keep Reading