Investing Research Articles

Researchers applying machine learning to predict stock returns typically train their models on next-month returns, implicitly generating high turnover that negates gross outperformance. Does training such models on longer-term returns (with lower implicit turnovers) work better? In their June 2023 paper entitled “The Term Structure of Machine Learning Alpha”, David Blitz, Matthias Hanauer, Tobias Hoogteijling… Keep Reading

Subscribers asked why the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) signaled an apparently dramatic change in allocations at the end of June. SACEVS seeks a monthly tactical edge from timing three risk premiums associated with U.S. Treasury notes, corporate bonds and stocks: Term – monthly difference between the 10-year Constant Maturity U.S. Treasury note (T-note) yield… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/26/23 through 6/30/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A subscriber asked about the performance of a strategy that each month rebalances to 60% international equities and 40% international corporate bonds (both non-U.S.), and how this performance compares to that of a portfolio that each month allocates 50% to Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) Best Value and 50% to Simple Asset Class… Keep Reading

Instead of searching among hundreds of firm/stock characteristics to identify those that best predict stock returns, what about first finding the stocks with the highest and lowest past returns and then examining the characteristics of those stocks? In his June 2023 paper entitled “Essence of the Cross Section”, Sina Seyfi identifies the strongest determinants of… Keep Reading

What happens as more and more web-scraped training data for Large Language Models (LLM), such as ChatGPT, derives from outputs of predecessor LLMs? In their May 2023 paper entitled “The Curse of Recursion: Training on Generated Data Makes Models Forget”, Ilia Shumailov, Zakhar Shumaylov, Yiren Zhao, Yarin Gal, Nicolas Papernot and Ross Anderson investigate changes… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/19/23 through 6/23/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

In response to “Tech Premium Boost for Simplest Asset Class Momentum Strategy?”, a subscriber asked about testing the combination of Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VUG) and Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (BND) in the “Simplest Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy?”, which each month holds SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) or iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/12/23 through 6/16/23. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A subscriber requested evaluation of a streamlined version of the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) that considers only three exchange-traded funds (ETF): SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) To evaluate, we test a strategy that each month picks the one… Keep Reading