Objective research to aid investing decisions

Value Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for November 2024 (Final)
Cash TLT LQD SPY

Momentum Investing Strategy (Strategy Overview)

Allocations for November 2024 (Final)
1st ETF 2nd ETF 3rd ETF
Filter Research

Investing Research Articles

3600 Research Articles

The Equity Risk Premium Through 2008

…evidence from the most credible models of the historical U.S. equity risk premium converge to an annual value in the range 4% to 4.5% during 1872-1950 and 1951-2008.

Simple Versus Complex Valuation Metrics

…evidence indicates that portfolios constructed from ranking stocks based on complex valuation metrics may materially outperform those constructed from simple valuation metrics.

Testing Navellier’s Stock Picking and Market Timing Based on Fund Performance

Navellier & Associates, Inc. offers one Navellier-branded mutual fund, Navellier Fundamental A (NFMAX), “designed to achieve the highest possible returns while minimizing risk.” Selection criteria for fund holdings, re-measured quarterly, “include earnings growth, profit margins, reasonable price/earnings ratios based on expected future earnings, and various other fundamental criteria.” Using NFMAX weekly adjusted closing prices from… Keep Reading

Average Stock Variance as a Market Indicator

…evidence suggests that investors may be able to gain an edge by considering the recent historical relationship between average stock price variance and future short-term market return.

Gurus and Incredible Certitude

…for the sake of realism, investment strategy developers should rigorously examine the defensibility of any assumptions embedded in their inference processes.

Accrual Volatility as a Stock Return Predictor

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to earn abnormal returns by exploiting systematic outperformance (underperformance) of stocks with very low (high) historical accrual volatilities.

Seeking Confirming Opinions Rather Than Information?

…experimental evidence indicates that participation in stock message boards/forums increases a typical investor’s propensity to trade and decreases actual investment performance. Investors may want to factor this effect into their information search and processing practices.

Success Factors for High-frequency Pairs Trading

…evidence indicates that success of high-frequency trading of paired stocks likely depends critically on minimizing trading friction, balancing trading friction and trigger sensitivity and reacting quickly to triggers, and perhaps on being especially alert during the first hour of trading.

Rogue Waves and Hedge Fund Returns

…evidence indicates that hedge funds with low net market exposure may earn returns largely by assuming that correlations between assets and asset classes will behave predictably, and rogue correlation spikes may swamp these funds with extremely large drawdowns.

Exploit Media Bias in Hedge Fund Coverage?

…evidence indicates that hedge fund investors may be able to gain an edge by limiting consideration to funds with recent corporate releases but no other recent media coverage.