Investing Research Articles

…investors/traders may pivot on earnings, but appear to react to the inflation rate rather than interest rates.

…equity investors should be contrarian when considering economic forecasts. Bad is good.

…the empirical evidence for the size effect is superficially consistent, but frail at closer inspection. The size effect is not “dead,” but it is ailing.

…the bid-ask spread, transaction costs and the price impact of trading make the value premium in small-capitalization stocks hard to capture. The prey is generally too elusive for mutual funds and indexes.

…exceptionally volatile stocks are on average inferior investments, or at least trades. There is no reward for this kind of risk, and presently no explanation for this effect.

…practitioners who use the Fed Model are simpletons. The model is theoretically implausible and empirically challenged.

…corporate profitability and earnings growth exhibit non-linear mean reversion.

…investing in options as a marginal enhancement to a buy-and-hold approach can improve returns and Sharpe ratios, but only if the options positions are small compared to overall portfolio size.

…the power law distribution of sizes of large investors, along with the optimal trading behavior of those investors, explains the excess volatility observed in asset markets.

“…[T]he human mind has a predilection for rampant, uncontrolled induction, and it requires much education to overcome this.”