Investing Research Articles

Andrew Abraham, founder of Abraham Investment Management, introduces his 2012 book, The Trend Following Bible: How Professional Traders Compound Wealth and Manage Risk, by stating: “I want to teach you to think like a successful trend follower. I am giving you exactly the methodologies I have used on a daily basis for the last 18 years. They… Keep Reading

Does hedging a currency carry trade (long currencies with high interest rates and short currencies with low interest rates) to suppress its volatility enhance performance? In their December 2012 working paper entitled “Carry Trade and Systemic Risk: Why are FX Options So Cheap?”, Ricardo Caballero and Joseph Doyle investigate the profitability of an equally weighted… Keep Reading

Does mean-variance optimization enhance the performance of currency carry trades (long currencies with high interest rates and short currencies with low interest rates)? In their November 2012 paper entitled “On the Risk and Return of the Carry Trade”, Fabian Ackermann, Walt Pohl and Karl Schmedders compare a dynamic mean-variance optimal carry trade strategy to naive… Keep Reading

Is there a useful way to measure the combined effects of information push (published supply) and pull (search demand) on investor attention to specific stocks? In his November 2012 paper entitled “The Impact of Information Supply and Demand on Stock Returns”, Yanbo Wang examines the effect of a shift in firm/stock information supply-demand metrics on stock returns…. Keep Reading

When should an investor favor picking individual stocks over holding a stock index fund? In their November 2012 paper entitled “On Diversification”, Ben Jacobsen and Frans de Roon derive from Modern Portfolio Theory simple rules to compare concentrated investment in a portfolio of one or a few stocks to a broad, diversified (value-weighted) benchmark portfolio. The… Keep Reading

A subscriber suggested review of Empiritrage’s Volatility-Based Allocation (VBA). This strategy applies two monthly signals to an equally weighted portfolio of asset class total return proxies to determine whether to be in each proxy or cash, as follows: Step 1: If the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) of the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is above its 30-day… Keep Reading

“Trend Factor and Stock Returns” describes a method of extracting information from stock price simple moving averages (SMA) that is more complicated than that used by most traders. Instead of using current price above or below an SMA as a signal, this method employs offset regressions (normalized SMAs lagged one month behind returns) to project next month’s… Keep Reading

How might the capital gains tax rate affect stock market returns? First, a relatively low (high) rate might encourage (discourage) capital investment and stimulate (depress) economic growth, thereby persistently increasing (decreasing) corporate earnings and stock market returns. Second, an increase (decrease) in the rate might immediately drive lower (higher) portfolio allocations to stocks and thereby… Keep Reading

Nassim Taleb introduces his 2012 book, Antifragile, Things That Gain from Disorder, as “…my central work. I’ve had only one master idea, each time taken to the next step, the last step–this book–being more like a big jump. I am reconnected to my ‘practical self,’ my soul of a practitioner, as this is a merger of my… Keep Reading

A subscriber asked whether limiting choices in the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) to IWB, IWM, RWR, EFA and EEM (TLT, GLD, DBC and Cash) when above (below) the 200-day simple moving average improves model performance. To investigate, we assume the simple moving average (SMA) is for the S&P 500 Index as proxy… Keep Reading