Investing Research Articles

What is a safe portfolio withdrawal rate for early retirees who expect more than 30 years of retirement? In their February 2017 paper entitled “Safe Withdrawal Rates: A Guide for Early Retirees”, ERN tests effects of several variables on retirement portfolio success: Retirement horizons of 30, 40, 50 and 60 years. Annual inflation-adjusted withdrawal rates of 3%… Keep Reading

Are widely used stock factor premiums amenable to timing based on the ratio of aggregate valuation of stocks in the long side to aggregate valuation of stocks in the short side of the factor portfolio (the value spread)? In their March 2017 paper entitled “Contrarian Factor Timing is Deceptively Difficult”, Clifford Asness, Swati Chandra, Antti Ilmanen and Ronen… Keep Reading

Are the profitability (Robust Minus Weak, RMW) and investment (Conservative Minus Aggressive, CMA) stock factor premiums observed post-1963 robust in earlier data? In the February 2017 version of his paper entitled “The Profitability and Investment Premium: Pre-1963 Evidence”, Sunil Wahal measures the profitability (revenue minus cost of goods sold, scaled by total assets) and investment (change in total… Keep Reading

How diversifying are different equity factors within and across country stock markets? In his January 2016 paper entitled “The Power of Equity Factor Diversification”, Ulrich Carl analyzes diversification properties of six equity factors (market excess return, size, value, momentum, low-beta and quality) across 20 developed stock markets. He defines each factor conventionally as returns to a portfolio that… Keep Reading

Are strategies that exploit return autocorrelation good places to look for complementary (diversifying) return streams? In the March 2017 version of their paper entitled “Momentum and Covered Calls almost Everywhere”, Stephen Choi, Gil-Lyeol Jeong and Hogun Park examine trend following and covered call strategies at the asset class level both separately and in combination. Their asset class universe… Keep Reading

Do very long samples clarify the role of aggregate dividend yield as a stock market return predictor? In their January 2017 paper entitled “Four Centuries of Return Predictability”, Benjamin Golez and Peter Koudijs examine whether aggregate dividend yield (dividend-to-price ratio) predicts stock market return in a pieced sample spanning four centuries. They test predictability in the… Keep Reading

Are aggregate commodity futures returns predictable based on prices across the maturity curve and/or on the state of the global economy? In her January 2017 paper entitled “Commodity Return Predictability”, Regina Hammerschmid investigates aggregate commodity futures return predictability based on variables incorporating information from the term structure of futures prices and several global economic variables. She… Keep Reading

Do factors widely used to model cross-sectional returns of U.S. stocks exhibit reward-for-risk behaviors? In other words, are expected factor returns higher (lower) when factor return volatility is high (low)? In their January 2017 paper entitled “The Risk-Return Tradeoff Among Equity Factors”, Pedro Barroso and Paulo Maio examine reward-for-risk behaviors of the size (small minus big market… Keep Reading

Are the returns of factors widely used to predict the cross-section of stock returns themselves predictable? In the January 2016 draft of his paper entitled “Equity Factor Predictability”, Ulrich Carl analyzes predictability of market, size (market capitalization), value (book-to-market ratio), momentum (returns from 12 months ago to one month ago), low beta (betting against beta) and quality… Keep Reading

How does the fact that many investments can go up more than they can go down interact with their optimal allocations? In their February 2017 paper entitled “What Our Market Return Forecasts Really Mean: Convexity in Equity Returns and its Implications for Investment Sizing”, Victor Haghani and James White examine how return convexity, return forecast and investment… Keep Reading