Does Earnings Acceleration Mean Anything for Investors?
April 3, 2007 - Fundamental Valuation
…earnings acceleration helps explain stock returns, most notably when it amplifies the direction of earnings growth (both positive or both negative).
April 3, 2007 - Fundamental Valuation
…earnings acceleration helps explain stock returns, most notably when it amplifies the direction of earnings growth (both positive or both negative).
March 30, 2007 - Calendar Effects
…there is a tendency for stocks worldwide to reprise their monthly return behavior every 12 months, with intracycle reversals, over periods of many years. Results suggest calendar-connected market structures.
March 28, 2007 - Size Effect
…a small-stock buy-and-hold approach benefits fully from upside volatility (beta) but does not suffer the entire penalty of downside volatility.
March 27, 2007 - Investing Expertise
…forecasters trying to beat other forecasters tend to take extreme public positions that reflect the motivational bias of competition. An investor considering the public forecasts of gurus should probably shift asserted probabilities away from 0% and 100% toward 50%.
March 26, 2007 - Fundamental Valuation
…Benjamin Graham-style value investing still works but is more difficult to execute than in the past because severe undervaluation has become rarer.
March 23, 2007 - Short Selling
…it appears that some short selling is manipulative, seeking to scare other traders out of their holdings during sharp but temporary engineered price drops.
March 22, 2007 - Animal Spirits
…there is an “information risk premium” such that stocks not covered by the news media yield significantly higher future returns than stocks heavily covered, even after accounting for other widely used risk factors.
March 19, 2007 - Investing Expertise, Mutual/Hedge Funds
…hedge fund managers seem to be no better at long-equity investing than mutual fund managers; they do not outperform the market.
March 16, 2007 - Buybacks-Secondaries
…share repurchase announcements persist as good indicators of stock undervaluation, most significantly amplified by poor returns over the prior six months.
March 14, 2007 - Sentiment Indicators
…the sentiment of institutional (private) investors probably has some (no) value in predicting stock market returns over a six-month horizon.