Investing Research Articles

What is the big picture on stock return predictors? In their May 2012 paper entitled “The Supraview of Return Predictive Signals”, Jeremiah Green, John Hand and Frank Zhang examine aggregate characteristics of 333 signals for which formal research indicates power to predict stock returns. They categorize each signal as accounting-based (from firm financial statements, such as accruals), finance-based (directly or… Keep Reading

Are there exchange-traded notes (ETN) based on S&P 500 Index implied volatility (VIX) futures, or combinations of such ETNs, that are attractive for absolute return and diversification? In the May 2012 version of their paper entitled “Volatility Exchange-Traded Notes: Curse or Cure?”, Carol Alexander and Dimitris Korovilas examine the behaviors of simple (first generation) and enhanced (second… Keep Reading

Is reward-for-risk or reward-for-not taking risk the rule among stocks? In their April 2012 paper entitled “Low Risk Stocks Outperform within All Observable Markets of the World”, Nardin Baker and Robert Haugen measure performance differences between low-volatility stocks and high-volatility stocks in developed and emerging equity markets worldwide. They define a stock’s lagged volatility as the… Keep Reading

Should investors focus on relatively wild (high-volatility) or tame (low-volatility) stocks in emerging stock markets? In their April 2012 paper entitled “The Volatility Effect in Emerging Markets”, David Blitz, Juan Pang and Pim van Vliet examine the empirical relationship between risk and return in emerging equity markets. At the end of each month, they form equally-weighted quintile… Keep Reading

How do the technical trading rules that work best in a past study perform for new data? In the March 2012 version of their paper entitled “Predictability of the Simple Technical Trading Rules: An Out-of-Sample Test”, Jiali Fang, Ben Jacobsen and Yafeng Qin re-test performances of the 26 best technical trading rules from a 20-year old… Keep Reading

How do general economic conditions and economy-wide default risk shocks affect corporate bond returns, especially past winners and losers? In the May 2012 draft of their paper entitled “Sources of Momentum in Bonds”, Hwagyun Kim, Arvind Mahajan and Alex Petkevich investigate the relationship between U.S. corporate bond momentum portfolio returns and U.S. aggregate default risk. They measure the momentum effect… Keep Reading

Are there economic conditions that favor stock price momentum investing? In the May 2012 draft of their paper entitled “Momentum and Aggregate Default Risk”, Arvind Mahajan, Alex Petkevich and Ralitsa Petkova investigate the relationship between stock momentum portfolio returns and U.S. aggregate default risk. They measure the momentum effect as average monthly gross returns of overlapping hedge portfolios formed each… Keep Reading

Is drawdown control a practical investment policy? In their February 2012 paper entitled “Optimal Portfolio Strategy to Control Maximum Drawdown: The Case of Risk-based Active Management with Dynamic Asset Allocation” (the National Association of Active Investment Managers’ 2012 Wagner Award third place winner), George Yang and Liang Zhong examine maximum percentage drawdown target as a criterion for active portfolio… Keep Reading

Does momentum investing work when implemented via mutual fund alpha? In his February 2012 paper entitled “Short Term Alpha as a Predictor of Future Mutual Fund Performance” (the National Association of Active Investment Managers’ 2012 Wagner Award runner-up), Michael Hartmann examines a momentum-based approach for selecting outperforming equity mutual funds by investment style. He considers nine equity investment styles: Large Capitalization Growth,… Keep Reading

A subscriber asked: “Have you looked at combining sector and asset class momentum models? This strategy would add alternative asset classes plus cash to the nine sectors.” A combined strategy encompasses nine sector exchange-traded funds (ETF) defined by the Select Sector Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR) per “Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy” plus the eight… Keep Reading