Recent Investing Research

Do analysts/investors predictably and exploitably misinterpret tones of earnings calls? In their October 2025 paper entitled “Do Investors Get It Right? Reaction Bias to Earnings Calls”, Zhenzhen Fan and Fred Liu study interactions between textual information in earnings conference calls and analyst revisions to their next-quarter earnings forecasts. Specifically, they: For each stock and each… Keep Reading

Do informed put option buyers predict overall U.S. stock market returns? In her November 2025 paper entitled “Put Option Trading Efficiency”, Xiaolin Huo constructs a monthly Put Option Trading Efficiency (POTE) variable to measure the extent to which speculators hold larger put option positions on overpriced stocks than underpriced stocks. She measures POTE monthly as… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/17/25 through 11/21/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Does the Thanksgiving holiday, a time of families celebrating plenty, give U.S. stock investors a sense of optimism that translates into stock returns? To investigate, we analyze the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index during the three trading days before and the three trading days after the holiday. Using daily closing levels of the… Keep Reading

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) that employ artificial intelligence (AI) to pick assets perform? To investigate, we consider ten such ETFs, eight of which are currently available: Amplify AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ) – picks U.S. stocks based on a quantitative model that runs on the IBM Watson platform. QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap ETF (QRFT)… Keep Reading

A subscriber suggested review of The Book of Alternative Data: A Guide for Investors, Traders, and Risk Managers , a 2020 book by Alexander Denev and Saeed Amen. In this book, the authors address “the ever growing importance of data, and in particular, alternative data. We live in a world, which is rich with data,… Keep Reading

A subscriber asked about the relationship between Berkshire Hathaway cash position and S&P 500 Index returns. To investigate, we: Located annual “Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) – Cash on Hand” data as a baseline cash pile. Asked Grok to construct a table showing annual Berkshire Hathaway cash plus U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills), annual total assets and annual… Keep Reading

Can insights inferred from real-time financial news by large language models (LLM) such as ChatGPT 4.0 mini enhance a conventional stock momentum strategy? In their October 2025 paper entitled “ChatGPT in Systematic Investing – Enhancing Risk-Adjusted Returns with LLMs”, Nikolas Anic, Andrea Barbon, Ralf Seiz and Carlo Zarattini investigate whether ChatGPT can improve a conventional… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/10/25 through 11/14/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

A subscriber asked about the performance of a 50-50 combination of a basket of momentum stock exchange-traded funds (ETF) and a basket of quality stock ETFs, specifically with comparison to a 50-50 combination of the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS). To investigate, we employ… Keep Reading