More International Equity Market Granularity for SACEMS?

A subscriber asked whether more granularity in international equity choices for the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS), such as considered by Decision Moose, would improve performance. To investigate, we augment/replace international developed and emerging equity market exchange-traded funds (ETF) such that the universe of assets becomes:

• SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
• iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
• iShares Europe (IEV)
• iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ)
• iShares MSCI Pacific ex Japan (EPP)
• iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
• iShares JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Fund (EMB)
• iShares Latin America 40 (ILF)
• iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
• Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
• SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
• Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
• 3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

We compare original (SACEMS Base) and modified (SACEMS Granular), each month picking winners from their respective sets of ETFs based on total returns over a fixed lookback interval. We focus on gross compound annual growth rate (CAGR), gross maximum drawdown (MaxDD) and gross annual Sharpe ratio (average annual excess return divided by standard deviation of annual excess returns, using average monthly T-bill yield during a year to calculate excess returns) as key performance statistics for the Top 1, equally weighted (EW) Top 2 and EW Top 3 portfolios of monthly winners. Using monthly total (dividend-adjusted) returns for the specified assets during February 2006 through December 2023, we find that: (more…)