Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/6/20 through 4/9/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs.
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- Characterizing S&P 500 Index Bear Market Rallies
Available evidence suggests that S&P 500 Index bear markets and bear market rallies are idiosyncratic, but 10% (or somewhat bigger) bear market rallies are not unusual. - COVID-19 and U.S. Stock Returns
Evidence suggests that the COVID-19 health crisis morphed into an economic crisis due to both expectation of lower firm cash flows and a higher discount rate (investor risk aversion). - Best Equity Risk Premium
Evidence indicates that formal asset valuation models (extrapolations of historical return data) provide the most (least) predictive estimates of the future equity risk premium. - Simple Volatility Harvesting?
Evidence suggests that a simple stop-gain rule (but not a comparable stop-loss rule) may have marginal value when applied to the broad U.S. stock market.
