Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/17/19 through 6/21/19. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs.
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- KCFSI as a Stock Market Return Predictor
Evidence from simple tests on available data offers little support for belief that KCFSI is a reliable predictor of U.S. stock market returns. - ICO Performance Tendencies
Evidence indicates that the distribution of ICO returns has strong positive skewness, such that the average performance (attractive) is not typical performance (unattractive). Small ICOs tend to outperform large ones. - SACEMS with Different Alternatives for “Cash”
Evidence from simple tests on available data suggests alternatives for “Cash” have little effect on SACEMS performance. - Best Equity Risk Premium
Evidence indicates that formal asset valuation models (extrapolations of historical return data) provide the most (least) predictive estimates of the future equity risk premium. - Stock Market Behavior Around Mid-year and 4th of July
Best guess for the U.S. stock market is modest positive bias around the mid-year point through the 4th of July holiday.
