Investing Expertise

Do artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models offer a quick way to identify potentially exploitable calendar-based return patterns in financial series? As a simple exploration, we pose to Grok the following prompt:

Can you find any daily, weekly or monthly price return patterns in the attached Excel file containing daily open, high, low and close prices for the S&P 500 Index that are materially and statistically interesting after accounting for any exploitation costs?

Using Grok’s response to the prompt as posed with daily open, high, low and close prices for the S&P 500 Index as available from the end of December 1927 through mid-October 2026 (with open, high and low available only since 1962), we find that: Keep Reading

Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that seek to mimic holdings of top-ranked hedge funds, firm insiders or other investing gurus offer attractive performance? To investigate, we consider nine ETFs, five live and four dead, in order of introduction:

• • Invesco Insider Sentiment (NFO) – focuses on stocks attracting interest of insiders such as company executives, fund managers and sell side analysts. This fund is dead as of February 2020.
  • Invesco BuyBack Achievers (PKW) – tracks the Nasdaq US BuyBack Achievers Index, comprised of stocks of U.S. firms with a net decline in shares outstanding of 5% or more in the last 12 months.
  • Direxion All Cap Insider Sentiment (KNOW) –  tracks the S&P Composite 1500 Executive Activity & Analyst Estimate Index, comprised of U.S. stocks that have favorable analyst ratings and are being acquired by firm insiders (top management, directors and large institutions). This fund is dead as of October 2020.
  • AlphaClone Alternative Alpha – (ALFA) – tracks the proprietary AlphaClone Hedge Fund Masters Index, comprised of U.S. securities held by the highest ranked managers of  hedge funds and institutions. This fund is dead as of August 2022.
  • Global X Guru Index (GURU) – tracks the Solactive Guru Index, comprised of the highest conviction ideas from a select pool of hedge funds.
  • Direxion iBillionaire (IBLN) –  tracks the proprietary iBillionaire Index, comprised of 30 U.S. mid and large cap securities. This fund is dead as of April 2018.
  • Goldman Sachs Hedge Industry VIP (GVIP) – tracks the proprietary GS Hedge Fund VIP Index, comprised of stocks appearing most frequently among the top 10 equity holdings of fundamentally driven hedge fund managers.
  • Guru Favorite Stocks (GFGF) – tracks stock holdings of about 20 quality-oriented gurus who have publicly available records of at least 10 years.
  • Motley Fool Next Index (TMFX) – tracks the performance of mid- and small-capitalization U.S. companies recommended by The Motley Fool analysts and newsletters.

We use SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) as a simple benchmark for all these ETFs. We focus on monthly return statistics, along with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) and maximum drawdowns (MaxDD). Using monthly returns for the above guru/insider-following ETFs and SPY as available through September 2026, we find that: Keep Reading

Does the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models offer a quick way to generate contrarian investment ideas? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt:

Please very concisely identify the three most promising under-the-radar, contrarian investment opportunities exploitable by retail investors using ETFs over a planned holding period of one year. Include a rough estimate of the expected return.

Compiling and comparing responses from the AI panel to the prompt as posed in mid-October 2026, we find that: Keep Reading

Can artificial intelligence (AI) models help compose world class financial research?In his September 2026 paper entitled “AI and Scholarship in Financial Economics”, Campbell Harvey details the 45-minute process of drafting a submission to the April 2026 Human x AI Finance conference. His paper was one of four papers selected from 159 submissions by purely AI evaluators. Based on his specific experience drafting this submission and his broad professional experience, he concludes that:

Keep Reading

Can the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models (LLM) plausibly assess how widespread investor use of AIs to screen investment strategies will affect markets? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt:

Please concisely assess the implications for individual investors of the effects on financial markets from an ever-growing share of all investors using advice from you and other AIs.

Compiling and comparing responses from the AI panel to the prompt as posed near the end of September 2026, we find that: Keep Reading

Does the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models offer a quick way to identify attractive investment strategies? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt:

Please concisely describe and quantify the one most promising tactical asset class allocation/tilt strategy for an individual U.S. investor with typical risk aversion who is accumulating wealth for retirement in a tax-deferred account. Focus on exceptional simplicity, high liquidity, high net compound annual growth rate [CAGR] and shallow maximum peak-to-trough drawdown [MaxDD] as essential criteria.

Compiling and comparing responses from the AI panel to the prompt as posed near the end of September 2026, we find that: Keep Reading

Does the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models offer a quick way to assess the credibility of an investment strategy/model? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt:

Please assess the credibility of the Simple Asset Class Momentum Strategy, as attached.

The attached is the full page Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS), provided to the AIs as a PDF. Compiling and comparing responses from the AI panel to the prompt as posed in late September 2026, we find that: Keep Reading

Does the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models offer a quick way to validate research conclusions? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt:

Please identify any groups of related exchange-traded funds (ETF) that: (1) focus on capturing potentially attractive factor premiums or thematic niches; and, (2) consistently and materially beat reasonable, simple benchmarks. For examples of groups, see the attached list, but conduct your own research independently.

The attached list is the page Compendium of Live ETF Factor/Niche Premium Capture Tests, provided in full to the AIs as a PDF. Compiling and comparing responses from the AI panel to the prompt as posed in late September 2026, we find that: Keep Reading

Do sophisticated retail investors make money with their news-driven stock trades? In his September 2026 paper entitled “Heterogeneous Retail Investors and their Trading Behavior”, Andrew Glover employs trade size to categorize retail traders as either sophisticated, well-capitalized and experienced (Savvy) or unsophisticated (Naive) and compares their stock trading responses to the same firm disclosures. He examines directional correctness, timeliness and costliness of these trades. Using dates of firm press releases and earnings announcements and contemporaneous trading data during January 2014 through December 2023, he finds that:

Keep Reading

Does the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models have sensible views on the most important financial market trends for individual investors? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt eliciting key trends:

Please very concisely list in descending order the three financial market trends of most importance to individual investors over the next year.

We then compile and compare responses from AI panel members. Using responses to the prompt as posed in early September 2026, we find that: Keep Reading