As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the intermediate-term S&P 500 index calls of Tim Ord via MarketWeb since 1/20/06. Tim Ord is is president, editor and publisher of The Ord Oracle, “devoted to the practice of supply and demand trading” using “a new kind of charting program designed for showing supply and demand in the financial markets.” His intermediate-term calls appear to be intended for an horizon of 30 to 90 calendar days. In reviewing these calls, we find that:
There are some gaps and imprecisions in Tim Ord’s commentary archive at MarketWeb, necessitating some guesswork on exact dates and S&P 500 index levels (but the returns) for a few calls. There is a large gap between the 2/11/08 commentary (at which point he was long) and the 6/16/08 commentary (at which point he was flat). We are discontinuing tracking of new commentaries because we can no longer approximate dates of position changes. We are maintaining Tim Ord’s 1/20/06-1/28/08 record as a limited test of his stock market timing prowess.
The following chart depicts the behavior of the S&P 500 index from the beginning of 2006 through 1/28/08, identifying the points at which Tim Ord recorded short, cover, long and close calls, as follows:
- As of 1/20/06, at the start of the test, he was short the S&P 500 index at 1261.
- About 6/12/06, he covered the short position at 1245 for a return of +1.3%.
- About 6/29/06, he took a long position at 1273.
- About 9/8/06, he sold the long position at 1311 for a return of +3.0%.
- Between 10/16/06-1/22/07, he took a short position at 1382.
- About 4/23/07, he covered the short position at 1481 for a return of -7.2%.
- About 8/6/07, he took a long position at 1472..
- About 8/27/07, he sold the long position at 1467 for a return of -0.4%.
- Between 9/17/06 and mid-October 2007, he took a short position at about 1562.
- About 10/26/07, he covered the short position at about 1533 for a return of +1.9%.
- About 11/28/07, he took a long position at 1469.
- About 1/4/08, he sold the long position at 1412 for a return of -3.9%.
- About 1/24/08, he took a long position at 1352.
On a cumulative basis, assuming return on cash while out of the market offsets trading costs, the cumulative return from trading the S&P 500 index based on Tim Ord’s calls during 1/20/06-1/28/08 is -5.4%. An investor who bought and held the S&P 500 index over this same period has a return of +7.3%.
In summary, Tim Ord’s intermediate-term S&P 500 index calls during 1/20/06-1/28/08 substantially underperformed the market. However, the small sample of calls does not support reliable inference about the accuracy of his method over the very long term.
The table below summarizes the commentary detail used to construct his recent S&P 500 index trading record.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Tim Ord via MarketWeb | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 2/11/08 | Long SPX on 1/24/08 at 1352.07. | 0.7% | -2.3% | 3.7% | -37.6% | |
| 1/28/08 | We are long the SPX on 1/24/08 at 1352.07. | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | -37.6% | |
| 1/7/08 | Long SPX on 11/28/07 at 1469.02. Sold 1/4/08 at 1411.63 for loss 3.9%. | 0.0% | -6.3% | -3.1% | -35.8% | |
| 12/17/07 | We are on an intermediate term buy signal on the SPX… Our minimum upside target is…1575 range on the SPX. We are long the SPX at 1469.02. | 3.5% | -7.8% | -8.0% | -38.8% | |
| 12/10/07 | We are on an intermediate term buy signal on the SPX… Our minimum upside target is…1575 range on the SPX. We are long the SPX at 1469.02. | -4.6% | -6.3% | -12.9% | -42.4% | |
| 12/3/07 | …an upside target…near…1575 range on the SPX. We are long the SPX at 1469.02. | 3.0% | -1.7% | -9.9% | -42.6% | |
| 11/12/07 | We are staying flat the S&P…for now. | -0.4% | 3.3% | -6.3% | -36.7% | |
| 11/5/07 | We are staying flat the S&P…for now. | -4.2% | -1.1% | -11.0% | -39.8% | |
| 10/29/07 | We closed out our short SPX position last week for a 1.88% gain and are now flat. | -2.5% | -4.7% | -11.6% | -38.1% | |
| 9/17/07 | We are staying flat the S&P…for now. | 2.8% | 4.2% | 0.8% | -18.3% | |
| 9/10/07 | A bullish setup will occur the next time the Summation index turns back up. This will be the time we may establish a long position in the SPX. | 1.7% | 7.8% | 3.8% | -14.0% | |
| 8/27/07 | For monitoring purposes, we went neutral on SPX on today’s close at 1466.79. | 1.5% | 4.0% | -1.8% | -11.3% | |
| 8/20/07 | …the signs for a bottom are present… We are long the SPX on 8/2/07 at 1472.20. | 1.5% | 5.8% | 0.4% | -11.6% | |
| 8/13/07 | The market is…about ready to start an intermediate term advance. We are long the SPX on 8/2/07 at 1472.20. | -0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | -11.0% | |
| 8/6/07 | …we are expecting the market to stabilize near current levels… We are long the SPX on 8/2 at 1472.20 for the 30 to 90 day period. | -1.0% | 0.3% | 2.8% | -13.7% | |
| 7/30/07 | We are staying neutral on the SPX…for the 30 to 90 day period. | -0.4% | -2.8% | 2.7% | -14.0% | |
| 7/16/07 | We are staying flat the S&P for now. | -0.5% | -7.9% | 0.3% | -18.7% | |
| 7/9/07 | We are staying flat the S&P for now. | 1.2% | -3.6% | 0.7% | -18.2% | |
| 7/2/07 | We are staying flat the S&P for now. | -0.6% | -3.5% | 0.5% | -16.9% | |
| 6/25/07 | We are staying neutral for now. | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | -14.3% | |
| 6/11/07 | We are staying neutral for now. | 1.5% | 0.6% | -3.7% | -11.2% | |
| 6/4/07 | We are staying neutral for now. | -2.0% | -0.9% | -5.3% | -8.8% | |
| 5/21/07 | Flat the SPX for now. | -0.5% | -0.8% | -5.2% | -8.6% | |
| 5/14/07 | Flat the SPX for now. | 1.5% | 0.8% | -3.3% | -5.3% | |
| 5/7/07 | Flat for now. | -0.3% | 0.6% | -5.0% | -7.9% | |
| 4/23/07 | We covered our short on the SPX… Flat for now. | 0.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | -6.2% | |
| 4/2/07 | We are short the SPX at 1381.95 for an intermediate term downside target to 1140 range. | 1.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | -3.8% | |
| 3/19/07 | The bigger trend is down and we are expecting and intermediate term decline to take the SPX down to near the 1140 range. For short term there appears a bounce developing… We are short the SPX at 1381.95. | 2.5% | 5.0% | 9.3% | -5.2% | |
| 3/12/07 | …the SPX should rally this week. The bigger trend is down and we are expecting and intermediate term decline to take the SPX down to near the 1140 range. We are short the SPX at 1381.95. | -0.3% | 2.3% | 7.2% | -6.5% | |
| 1/22/07 | We are short the SPX at 1381.95. Our longer term target is the 1150 range. | -0.2% | 2.4% | 4.3% | -5.0% | |
| 10/16/06 | Staying flat for now. | 0.6% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 9.6% | |
| 9/11/06 | We are neutral on the market right now… We sold our long SPX position on Friday for a 3% gain. | 1.7% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 14.2% | |
| 8/21/06 | The Summation index is trending up and implies the trend is up. We will see what transpires at the 1350 range. We are long the SPX at 1272.87. | 0.3% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 14.0% | |
| 8/14/06 | We are long the SPX at 1272.87. | 2.3% | 3.9% | 8.7% | 14.0% | |
| 8/8/06 | There is a good chance that the SPX may attempt to test the previous high near the 1325 range. | 1.1% | 1.8% | 7.3% | 14.3% | |
| 7/24/06 | The SPX could attempt to test the previous high near the 1325 range before the next declining phase begins. Long SPX on 6/29 at 1272.87. | 1.2% | 3.0% | 8.4% | 15.7% | |
| 6/26/06 | Flat for now. | 2.4% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 20.2% | |
| 6/12/06 | Flat for now. | 0.3% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 24.0% | |
| 6/5/06 | …we are looking for the 1245 range to cover our short position. …We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | -2.3% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 19.2% | |
| 5/22/06 | We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | -0.2% | -0.8% | 3.2% | 20.1% | |
| 5/15/06 | …it would not be a stretch to say that the current decline could last into October, which is five months away. We are looking for a major low…in October 2006 as that is when the “Four year Cycle low” is due. We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | -2.5% | -5.0% | -2.1% | 17.6% | |
| 5/1/06 | We are still expecting a decline here… We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | 1.5% | -2.7% | -2.0% | 15.4% | |
| 4/17/06 | The “Four year cycle” low is due in October 2006 and is where the final lows will be made on these markets. We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | 1.8% | 0.5% | -3.8% | 15.5% | |
| 4/10/06 | …a “Triple Top” has appeared and implies the top may have been seen. We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | 0.9% | 2.0% | -2.3% | 13.3% | |
| 4/3/06 | …the last top should appear between March 28 to April 15 and we are in this time frame now. We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | -0.1% | 0.8% | -2.1% | 11.3% | |
| 3/27/06 | For the current conditions, if the market fails to hold the blue line area at 1295, it will give its first downside target to 1270 range. However on the bigger time frames, we have a target to the 1158 range. We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | -0.3% | 0.3% | -4.4% | 9.2% | |
| 3/20/06 | …a decline is coming; we don’t know exactly when it will begin. …We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | -0.3% | 0.4% | -4.1% | 10.0% | |
| 3/13/06 | …the decline is coming. We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | 1.6% | 0.2% | -2.5% | 8.0% | |
| 3/6/06 | …the bearish picture is still present. We are short SPX on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | 0.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 9.7% | |
| 2/27/06 | After the “Window Dressing” is complete, we are expecting for the market to starts it’s decline. We are short on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | -1.2% | -0.1% | -1.6% | 7.2% | |
| 2/13/06 | We are expecting a bounce this week… If the market does bounce this week it does not charge the intermediate term bearish picture. It would be just a bounce in a downtrend. We are short on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 15.3% | |
| 2/6/06 | We are short on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | -0.2% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 13.7% | |
| 1/30/06 | We believe, SPX is near an important high… We are short on 1/20/06 at 1261.49. | -1.6% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 12.7% | |
| 1/23/06 | Breaking a previous support with a “sign of Weakness” confirm the reversal to the downside… There will be temporary support at the previous lows of November and December at the 1247 range, however, the longer term picture points to 1180 range as a stronger support for a bounce. By late Summer to early fall, the market may work lower into the 1065 range. | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 12.5% | |
