We evaluate here the weekly “The Outlook” column in BusinessWeek online by Standard and Poor’s since May 2003 (the earliest available). According to Standard & Poor’s, “‘The Outlook‘ is a unique investment advisory service…[that] provides solid research, unbiased investment ideas and market perspective… [It] presents investment information and advice in a concise way that helps to clear up some of the mystery surrounding the economy, the stock market, and investments in general.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- The “Outlook” throughout the period of this review has been and remains mostly positive about U.S. equities, in general alignment with market performance. We do not have history for “The Outlook” during a persistently declining U.S. equities market.
- “The Outlook’s” forecast sample size is moderate, as is therefore confidence in measurement of its accuracy.
- As shown in the graph below, “The Outlook’s” explicit recommendations for increasing and decreasing exposure to U.S. equities exhibit inconsistent value, sometimes accumulating at highs and distributing at lows.
- BusinessWeek has discontinued the weekly “The Outlook” column. We retain this record for historical reference as part of an overall analysis of guru accuracy.
The following chart depicts the behavior of the S&P 500 index over the period of this review, identifying the points at which “The Outlook” explicitly recommends increasing or decreasing exposure to U.S. equities. The sample of recommendations is too small for meaningful statistical analysis but does not contradict the accuracy assessment above.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: S&P Outlook in Business Week | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 9/28/07 | …S&P’s Investment Policy Committee upped its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 1,560, from a previous forecast of 1,510. We now expect the S&P 500 to deliver full-year gains of 10%… | 2.0% | 0.9% | -3.3% | -24.0% | – |
| 7/27/07 | …resumption of the yen-based carry trade could help boost equities in the coming weeks, putting the uptrend from March lows in the major indexes back on course after recent pullbacks. | -1.8% | 0.5% | 3.9% | -12.0% | – |
| 7/13/07 | …year-end target of 1,510 for the S&P 500…the market has gotten ahead of itself and will remain range-bound for the remainder of the year. | -1.2% | -6.4% | 0.6% | -19.8% | + |
| 6/22/07 | …year-end 2007 target for the S&P 500 at 1510…our current allocation calls for 40% in U.S. equities, 25% in foreign stocks, 25% in bonds, and 10% in cash. | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | -12.0% | + |
| 6/15/07 | S&P’s Investment Policy Committee is maintaining its year-end 2007 S&P 500 target of 1510 because of the risk of higher interest rates and the potential for slowing earnings growth. | -2.0% | 1.1% | -3.2% | -12.7% | + |
| 6/1/07 | S&P continues to favor equities over fixed income and cash over the coming 12 months. | -1.9% | -1.1% | -4.7% | -10.4% | – |
| 5/25/07 | The broad sector participation is bullish, in our view, and suggests the market has further upside. | 1.5% | -1.5% | -3.5% | -7.8% | – |
| 5/18/07 | …this bull is not likely to buck anytime soon. …S&P continues to favor equities over fixed income and cash for the balance of 2007. …our recommended global asset allocation is comprised of 65% stocks, …40% domestic and 25% foreign. | -0.5% | 0.7% | -7.3% | -8.7% | – |
| 4/27/07 | We will place a wager on the smart money; they are betting on further upside. …we believe the index will likely establish a new closing high in either May or June. | 0.8% | 1.6% | -0.8% | -5.7% | + |
| 4/13/07 | …increase…international equity allocation to 25% from 20% and reduce the cash position to 10% from 15%. | 2.2% | 3.5% | 6.5% | -6.1% | + |
| 3/30/07 | Bearish investor sentiment suggests another run to the upside for stocks… | 1.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | -3.6% | + |
| 3/9/07 | An end to the recent yen rally may indicate that the worst of the current global bout of risk aversion has run its course, signaling an imminent equity rally. | -1.1% | 3.2% | 6.3% | -6.7% | + |
| 3/2/07 | …the market will stop declining when it wants to… Our yearend forecast for the S&P 500 remains at 1,510… | 1.1% | 2.7% | 10.3% | -3.9% | + |
| 2/16/07 | S&P’s Investment Policy Committee forecasts a 1510 year-end 2007 value for the S&P 500, indicating 6.5% price appreciation. | -0.4% | -3.1% | 3.9% | -7.8% | + |
| 2/2/07 | …S&P’s Investment Policy Committee continues to recommend a 60% exposure to global equities and sees the S&P 500 advancing 6.5%… We project a 9% rise in S&P 500 operating earnings for 2007 and believe it is possible the Fed will start cutting interest rates in the fourth quarter of the year. | -0.7% | -3.7% | 3.7% | -8.4% | + |
| 1/26/07 | …equities offer a better potential return than cash or bonds in 2007. We forecast the S&P 500 will close 2007 at 1510, for a near 8.5% total return… | 1.8% | -1.6% | 5.1% | -4.7% | + |
| 1/5/07 | …consensus 2007 global GDP and profit growth estimates are achievable and should enable continued strong equity performance. | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% | – |
| 12/8/06 | Single-Digit Gains in 2007 | 1.2% | 1.0% | -2.3% | 5.6% | + |
| 11/10/06 | S&P’s Investment Policy Committee…raised its year-end 2006 target for the S&P 500 to 1390 from 1350, and our 2007 target to 1500 from 1450 | 1.5% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | – |
| 10/13/06 | S&P’s Investment Policy Committee sees the S&P 500 closing 2006 at 1350, an 8.2% price gain from 2005’s close of 1248. We see the “500” ending 2007 at 1450, a 7.4% rise… | 0.2% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 12.8% | – |
| 9/15/06 | …S&P’s Investment Policy Committee reduced the recommended allocation to U.S. stocks to 40%, moving 5% into cash. | -0.4% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 15.1% | – |
| 9/1/06 | …we do not believe that the final market low has been put in, because the longer-term trend in market sentiment is still heading lower. | -0.9% | 1.8% | 6.8% | 10.9% | – |
| 8/25/06 | …U.S. equity markets are likely to remain range-bound for the foreseeable future…the S&P 500 will end the year at 1315, 5% higher than where it started. | 1.2% | 3.2% | 8.6% | 12.6% | – |
| 8/18/06 | The end of the Fed’s tightening cycle could be a catalyst for better stock performance… | -0.6% | 1.2% | 7.2% | 12.3% | + |
| 7/21/06 | The S&P Investment Policy Committee…lowered its 2006 year-end S&P 500 index target to 1315… | 1.2% | 4.6% | 10.1% | 19.5% | – |
| 7/14/06 | …the current global correction has discounted these risks and that the equity risk-reward ratio in many developed and emerging markets is now favorable from a longer-term standpoint. | 0.3% | 2.6% | 9.2% | 25.6% | + |
| 7/7/06 | …better equity market performance in the fourth quarter and early 2007. | -2.3% | 0.8% | 6.7% | 22.3% | + |
| 6/16/06 | …stay the course… S&P advises putting 45% into U.S. stocks, 20% into foreign equities… | -0.6% | -1.2% | 5.2% | 21.6% | + |
| 6/9/06 | Recent market downturns are making stocks more attractive… The S&P Investment Policy Committee target for year-end 2006 remains 1385. | -0.1% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 21.6% | + |
| 6/2/06 | …investors should consider buying… | -2.8% | -0.6% | 1.2% | 15.7% | – |
| 5/26/06 | …the recent market downturn presents a buying opportunity. We continue to recommend that investors keep 65% of their portfolios in stocks, with a 45% allocation to U.S. issues and 20% to foreign equities. | -1.2% | -3.2% | 1.2% | 20.0% | – |
| 5/5/06 | …keep a close eye on the second quarter, which we think is not going to be as much fun. | -2.6% | -4.7% | -3.4% | 13.6% | + |
| 4/21/06 | We favor a diversified approach to our 65% equity weighting, with 45% dedicated to U.S. stocks and 20% to international issues from both developed and emerging markets. | -0.1% | -3.8% | -4.7% | 14.0% | – |
| 2/24/06 | …Standard & Poor’s Investment Policy Committee continues to have a positive outlook on U.S. equities and forecasts a 9% return [to 1385], before dividends, for the “500” in 2006. | -0.2% | 0.9% | -2.4% | 8.8% | – |
| 2/10/06 | …we still think 2006 will be a good year for equities… We advise a 45% weighting in U.S. equities. | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 15.0% | + |
| 1/20/06 | …investors generally will be pleased when 2005 earnings are all reported. | 1.8% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 12.9% | + |
| 1/13/06 | …we see modest gains for stocks this year. Our yearend target for the S&P 500 is 1360… | -1.8% | -0.9% | 0.1% | 11.1% | – |
| 1/6/06 | …this year will be slightly better than last, with the S&P 500 ending at 1360… | 0.2% | -2.4% | 1.8% | 10.8% | – |
| 12/30/05 | …the typical inter-holiday torpor was disrupted recently by a troupe of dancing bears, who appeared happy to be roused by what they perceived to be a negative omen. We think their sleep was unnecessarily interrupted. | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 12.9% | + |
| 12/16/05 | …we see the Fed hiking rates only two more times…this augurs well for stocks in the coming year. | 0.1% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 12.4% | – |
| 12/9/05 | …the S&P 500 is attractive at a current multiple of 16.5 times our estimate of 2005 operating earnings. …We see the S&P 500 ending 2006 at 1360, for a 6.7% advance over the 1275 we now forecast for the end of this year. …keep 45% of your investment assets in domestic stocks… | 0.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 12.2% | – |
| 12/2/05 | …it’s hard to see conditions that might do much harm to stock prices by yearend. | -0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 11.7% | + |
| 11/18/05 | …stretching out the [rate hike] process could pressure stocks. | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 12.6% | – |
| 11/11/05 | History suggests that investors have paid little heed to most political scandals… | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 13.1% | + |
| 11/4/05 | …the market is likely to bounce within a fairly tight trading range through the end of the year…the easy gains from the October low have already been seen. | 1.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 13.6% | – |
| 10/28/05 | In the market environment S&P foresees, swinging for the fences may not produce the best results. | 1.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 14.1% | – |
| 10/21/05 | We now see the S&P 500 ending 2005 at 1220 (previously we had predicted 1270) and 2006 at 1290 (formerly 1335). …[reduce] domestic equities exposure to 45% from 50%… | 0.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 17.2% | – |
| 10/14/05 | …stocks are facing headwinds, including higher energy prices and interest rates. | -0.6% | 4.0% | 8.5% | 15.1% | – |
| 10/7/05 | …we still expect the market to finish 2005 higher. But our optimism is of the cautious variety. | -0.8% | 2.3% | 7.5% | 12.9% | + |
| 9/30/05 | A strong market with good showings by tech and consumer stocks could put investors in a merry mood by the end of 2005. | -2.7% | -1.8% | 2.1% | 9.9% | – |
| 9/9/05 | We expect stock market activity to be bumpy in the weeks ahead, but still see the S&P 500 up from its current level by the end of 2005. | -0.3% | -4.4% | 1.3% | 6.2% | + |
| 9/2/05 | Our yearend target for the S&P 500 is 1270… | 1.9% | -0.3% | 3.8% | 6.2% | – |
| 8/26/05 | …we don’t suggest that you dump stocks in anticipation of weakness. We continue to believe that the S&P 500 will post modest gains in 2005 and finish the year at 1270. | 1.1% | 0.9% | 5.0% | 8.2% | + |
| 8/19/05 | We expect oil prices to moderate a bit, which should be reflected in a reduced CPI number. | -1.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 6.0% | + |
| 8/12/05 | Standard & Poor’s Investment Policy Committee expects the S&P 500 index to end the year at 1270…U.S. stocks should be 50% of your holdings. | -0.9% | 0.1% | -0.8% | 5.3% | – |
| 8/5/05 | …stocks will climb in the second half… | 0.3% | 0.6% | -1.0% | 3.2% | – |
| 7/29/05 | …the Fed will stop when the fed funds rate reaches 4%. …the S&P 500 will end this year at 1270, and we project 1335 at yearend 2006. | -0.6% | -1.8% | -3.5% | 3.6% | – |
| 7/22/05 | …Standard & Poor’s Investment Policy Committee has raised the yearend target price for the S&P 500 to 1270 from 1255. …increase your U.S. equity allocation to 50% from 45%, with those assets coming out of bonds. | 0.0% | -1.0% | -3.1% | 2.8% | – |
| 7/15/05 | …more optimistic investors…should translate into higher stock prices…maintain 45% in U.S. stocks… | 0.5% | 0.5% | -4.1% | 2.6% | – |
| 7/8/05 | The quick market rebound in the wake of the London bombings reinforces our opinion that stocks will strengthen in the second half of 2005. | 1.3% | 0.9% | -1.3% | 3.9% | + |
| 6/24/05 | …stocks are likely to rise on any good news…move 5% from the MSCI EAFE index into U.S. stock indices. | 0.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 4.6% | + |
| 6/17/05 | …the current stock market presents some opportunities for the patient long-term investor. | -2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.9% | – |
| 6/10/05 | …we have raised our yearend target for the S&P 500. We now see 1255, up from 1245. | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | – |
| 6/3/05 | …the Federal Reserve will continue to be vigilant on inflation, but may skip a rate hike in August… | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 5/27/05 | …in the absence of attractive portfolio alternatives, stocks deserve investor attention. | -0.1% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 7.3% | – |
| 5/20/05 | We expect crude to average $50 a barrel this year, and believe that the U.S. economy won’t suffer major damage at that price level. | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 5.8% | + |
| 5/13/05 | There are some who fear that the Fed’s actions will derail the stock market. We don’t. | 3.1% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 10.1% | + |
| 5/6/05 | Our yearend target on the S&P 500 is 1245, or about 6% up from here. | -1.5% | 2.2% | 5.5% | 12.9% | + |
| 4/29/05 | …we have lowered our yearend target for the S&P 500 to 1245 from 1300… We continue to advise 40% in U.S. stocks | 1.3% | 3.0% | 7.5% | 13.1% | – |
| 4/22/05 | …we continue to believe that 2005 will be a modestly positive year for stocks. Consequently, our asset allocation for U.S. investors remains 40% in domestic stocks… | 0.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 13.3% | + |
| 4/8/05 | …though it won’t be an easy move, stocks could see some strength in the weeks ahead. | -3.3% | -0.2% | 1.4% | 8.9% | – |
| 3/18/05 | …for the S&P 500 to sport a 3% yield now, the index would have to sink to 712. While stocks have been a bit weak lately, we don’t foresee a decline anywhere near that magnitude. | -1.3% | -3.1% | 1.8% | 9.7% | + |
| 3/11/05 | …we still see the S&P 500 ending 2005 at 1300. | -0.9% | -1.0% | 0.1% | 8.6% | – |
| 3/4/05 | This year may see a great deal of back-and-forth action by stocks… we continue to have a yearend target of 1300 for the S&P 500 index. …Because of the weakening dollar, we advise U.S. investors to move 5% of assets from domestic stocks to foreign. | -1.8% | -3.3% | -1.5% | 4.6% | + |
| 2/25/05 | While we are cautious near term, we still expect stocks to produce moderate gains for 2005. Our yearend target on the S&P 500 remains 1300. | 0.9% | -3.8% | -1.8% | 6.6% | + |
| 2/18/05 | …once stocks regain their footing, prices will trend higher. Our yearend 2005 target for the S&P 500 remains 1300. We advise 45% in domestic equities, 15% in foreign stocks… | 0.2% | -2.5% | -0.9% | 7.2% | – |
| 2/11/05 | …there will be profits to be made in the 2005 market. | -0.3% | -0.6% | -3.8% | 6.2% | – |
| 2/4/05 | …another down month appears to be a distinct possibility. Even so, we expect a somewhat stronger showing for equities over the course of 2005… | 0.2% | 1.4% | -2.5% | 5.2% | – |
| 1/28/05 | We expect the market to go sideways for a while, but still project the S&P 500 at 1300 by yearend. | 2.7% | 3.3% | -2.4% | 9.4% | + |
| 1/21/05 | …the stock market is likely to draw some of [the fast money crowd’s] attention. | 0.3% | 1.4% | -0.7% | 8.3% | – |
| 1/14/05 | …the S&P 500 will perform somewhat better than has been typical in the first year of a second term. Our yearend target for the index is 1300… | -1.8% | 2.2% | -3.5% | 8.5% | – |
| 1/7/05 | Our S&P 500 target for yearend 2005 is 1300…we suggest 45% in domestic equities and 15% in foreign stocks. | -0.1% | 1.4% | -0.4% | 9.1% | – |
| 12/30/04 | We continue to advise 45% in domestic stocks [and] 15% in international equities. | -2.1% | -2.7% | -2.7% | 4.6% | – |
| 12/10/04 | …we see the S&P 500 ending 2005 at 1300, an 8.3% gain from the 1200 we project for yearend 2004…we suggest 45% in domestic equities, 15% in foreign stocks… | 0.5% | -0.4% | 1.0% | 6.6% | – |
| 11/19/04 | …we’ve raised our S&P 500 yearend target for 2004 to 1200 and now see 1300 at the end of 2005. | 0.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 7.8% | + |
| 11/5/04 | …we advise 45% in domestic stocks, 15% in foreign equities… | 1.5% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | |
| 10/29/04 | …deployment of corporate cash should send stocks higher in the months ahead. | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.4% | + |
| 10/22/04 | …move 5% of assets from cash to domestic stocks…[and] another 5% to foreign stocks. | 3.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 9.2% | + |
| 10/15/04 | …when consumers and businesses finally adjust to oil prices, the underlying strength in the economy is likely to be reflected in stocks. | -1.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | + |
| 9/17/04 | S&P doesn’t see a breakout to the upside for stocks yet, but conditions may improve after the election. | -1.6% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | + |
| 9/10/04 | September usually is not kind to investors. | 0.4% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 9.5% | + |
| 9/3/04 | We believe that any gains for stocks will be labored in the weeks ahead… | 1.1% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 11.0% | – |
| 8/27/04 | In the autumn of 2004, there will likely be numerous negative headlines to dampen investors’ moods. | 0.5% | 0.2% | 6.7% | 9.1% | – |
| 8/20/04 | Although oil has a smaller direct effect on the economy now than two decades ago, fears of disruptions can restrain stocks… We calculate that oil should be selling for slightly above $30 a barrel, based on current supply and demand conditions. | 0.9% | 2.8% | 7.6% | 10.9% | – |
| 8/13/04 | …our cash recommendation is at 40%, an all-time high. | 3.2% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 14.5% | – |
| 8/6/04 | Until the economy shows signs of renewed strength or the market bottoms firmly, we advise keeping only 40% of assets in domestic equities, 10% in foreign stocks… | 0.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 15.7% | – |
| 7/30/04 | …we have reduced our yearend 2004 target for the S&P 500 to 1150 from 1210… We advise 45% of investment assets in domestic stocks and 10% in foreign equities. | -3.4% | -0.2% | 2.1% | 12.9% | – |
| 7/23/04 | …the market looks more unstable to us than it did a few weeks ago. We advise moving 5% of assets from domestic stocks to cash…reduce…U.S. equity allocation to 45% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 13.3% | – |
| 7/9/04 | The dividend world appears to us to be heading back to its traditional ways. With the market in a trading range for much of this year, that might be welcome news for investors. | -1.0% | -4.3% | 2.6% | 9.8% | – |
| 6/25/04 | …the resulting spike in yields on the 10-year note could depress stocks. Will this happen? We don’t think so. | -0.8% | -3.5% | -2.3% | 5.9% | – |
| 6/18/04 | …we continue to believe that strong growth in both corporate profits and GDP will cause the S&P 500 to close up for the year. We advise 50% of investment assets in domestic stocks, 10% in foreign equities… | -0.1% | -2.3% | -1.0% | 6.9% | – |
| 6/11/04 | …we think that risk has increased. Consequently, we have trimmed our recommended exposure to equities… We now suggest 50% in U.S. stocks (down from 55%) and 10% in foreign (from 15%) | 0.4% | -1.2% | -0.1% | 7.2% | + |
| 6/4/04 | …the stock market appear likely to do well in the coming months. | 0.2% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 6.4% | – |
| 5/28/04 | We continue to believe that common stocks are the best place for the bulk of investment assets in the months ahead. | 1.8% | 1.8% | -1.2% | 7.5% | – |
| 5/21/04 | Some negatives…are wild cards. Nevertheless, we believe the positives outweigh them now. | 2.5% | 4.6% | 0.4% | 8.8% | + |
| 5/14/04 | …we continue to recommend keeping a majority of your investment assets in stocks. | -0.2% | 3.5% | -2.8% | 8.2% | + |
| 5/7/04 | With markets likely to be volatile in coming weeks, higher-quality large-cap stocks should outperform… We still see the S&P 500 ending the year at 1,215. | -0.3% | 4.0% | -3.2% | 6.6% | + |
| 4/30/04 | Traders tend to head for the exits whenever the future seems murkier than usual. That can make for choppiness, but sometimes it provides an attractive entry point for long-term investors. | -0.8% | 1.3% | -0.5% | 6.2% | – |
| 4/23/04 | …we think that the strong earnings picture will support stocks. We expect the S&P 500 to post a 9% advance in 2004. | -2.9% | -4.0% | -4.8% | 1.4% | + |
| 4/16/04 | Although we are maintaining our asset allocation of 70% in equities, we now see the S&P 500 ending 2004 at 1,215, down from our previous estimate of 1,230. | 0.5% | -4.5% | -2.9% | 0.3% | + |
| 4/9/04 | …the continuing improvement in the economy is a principal reason to keep 70% of investment assets in stocks, with 55% in domestic equities and 15% in foreign. | -0.8% | -4.3% | -2.7% | 1.5% | – |
| 3/26/04 | …another fear appears to have taken center stage. | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 6.5% | – |
| 3/19/04 | Standard & Poor’s now recommends an allocation of 55% U.S. stocks [and] 15% foreign stocks… | -0.2% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 5.7% | – |
| 3/5/04 | Standard & Poor’s is maintaining a yearend target of 1230 for the S&P 500 index. We advise 50% of investment assets in U.S. stocks, 15% in foreign equities… | -3.1% | -0.5% | -3.5% | 4.3% | – |
| 2/27/04 | The recent rotation into more defensive stocks should not raise fears of a sell-off. | 1.0% | -2.0% | -2.6% | 5.7% | – |
| 2/20/04 | With inflation low, many companies look to acquisitions to increase revenues. The trend could boost stocks. | 0.1% | -4.3% | -4.8% | 4.1% | – |
| 2/13/04 | We…believe larger-capitalization issues are likely to outperform in 2004. | -0.4% | -3.1% | -4.3% | 5.6% | – |
| 2/6/04 | We now advise that individuals keep 50% in domestic stocks and 15% in foreign issues. | 0.3% | -0.2% | -2.5% | 4.3% | + |
| 1/30/04 | …we still see the S&P 500 closing 2004 at 1230 and advise keeping 65% of investments in equities. | 1.0% | 1.6% | -1.5% | 5.5% | – |
| 1/23/04 | A 5% to 10% correction could occur at any time. After that…we see the market continuing its advance…we… have raised our yearend target to 1,230 from 1,190. | -0.9% | -0.2% | -0.1% | 2.8% | + |
| 1/16/04 | …the economy is on track to deliver solid gains in the months ahead. | 1.4% | 1.1% | -0.5% | 3.1% | – |
| 1/9/04 | …the market outlook remains positive, but investors should not expect a rerun of 2003. We think the S&P 500 index will end the year at 1190…we continue to recommend keeping 65% of investment assets in stocks. | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 5.9% | + |
| 12/31/03 | We estimate that the S&P 500 will end 2004 at 1190… | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 6.8% | + |
| 12/19/03 | We look for further gains in 2004 and advise keeping 65% of investment assets in stocks. | 1.9% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 11.2% | + |
| 12/12/03 | Our forecast is for the S&P 500 to reach 1160 by midyear 2004 and 1190 by the end of the year… We recommend an asset allocation of 65% [for] stocks… | 1.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 12.0% | + |
| 11/21/03 | …the economy is…returning to a sustainable level of growth — a plus for stocks. | 3.4% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 14.2% | + |
| 11/14/03 | Alternative investment choices in bonds and cash equivalents look unappealing. We continue to recommend keeping 65% of your investment nest egg in stocks. | -1.4% | 2.4% | 10.2% | 12.7% | + |
| 11/7/03 | S&P expects [the market] to resume its climb. | -0.3% | 0.7% | 8.2% | 11.4% | + |
| 10/31/03 | …we see the S&P 500 ending this year at 1085 and project 1190 by yearend 2004. …Standard & Poor’s now recommends an allocation of 65% [for] stocks… | 0.2% | 1.5% | 8.0% | 10.6% | + |
| 10/24/03 | We think stocks should advance with the economic expansion this year and next. | 2.1% | 2.3% | 12.3% | 9.6% | + |
| 10/10/03 | With the jobs picture slowly improving, we think consumers will continue to spend. That should encourage some business investment as well. Both are likely to send the market higher. | 0.1% | 0.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | + |
| 10/3/03 | We continue to believe the market is going higher. | 0.8% | 2.8% | 7.6% | 9.8% | + |
| 9/26/03 | …the market is heading higher. | 3.3% | 3.4% | 9.7% | 11.8% | + |
| 9/19/03 | Stocks still look to us to be the best place for gains, and we advise keeping 60% of investment assets in equities. | -3.8% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 7.0% | + |
| 9/12/03 | …we believe the trends are in place for a strong economic and market recovery, and recommend keeping 60% of your investment assets in stocks. | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 10.3% | + |
| 8/8/03 | …equities usually rebound in the fourth quarter… Keep 60% of assets in stocks in anticipation of that move. | 1.3% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | + |
| 8/1/03 | We advise switching 5% from stocks into bonds because fixed-income prices could rise a bit after their huge decline. We still see a likely buying opportunity in stocks later this year. | -0.3% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 10.3% | – |
| 7/25/03 | …we continue to advise keeping 65% of investment assets in equities. | -1.9% | -0.5% | 3.2% | 10.2% | – |
| 7/18/03 | With both the economy and corporate earnings likely to look better in the months ahead, we see the S&P 500 closing the year at 1030. | 0.5% | 0.6% | 5.4% | 10.4% | – |
| 7/11/03 | We advise keeping 65% of assets in equities in anticipation of a stronger economy. | -0.5% | -1.8% | 3.6% | 10.9% | – |
| 6/27/03 | We continue to advise keeping 65% of assets in equities as we expect stocks to trend higher by yearend… The stock market has moved sharply higher since mid-March. We expect it will be in a trading range for a while, and it could dip a bit in the traditionally weak third quarter. Hold reserves to deploy then. | 2.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 15.6% | – |
| 6/20/03 | …the S&P 500 will work its way higher, but some backing and filling should be expected. | -2.0% | -0.8% | 4.4% | 14.6% | + |
| 6/13/03 | …the S&P 500 will end the year at 1030, for a 17% 12-month gain. By the middle of 2004, we expect the “500” to reach 1105. As a result, we advise keeping 65% of your investment portfolio in stocks. | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 14.5% | – |
| 6/6/03 | S&P’s Investment Policy Committee [has] increase[d] its yearend 2003 price target for the S&P 500 from 985 to 1030. We still advise keeping 65% of investment assets in stocks. | 0.1% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 14.5% | + |
| 5/30/03 | For now, maintain 65% of investment assets in stocks. | 2.5% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 16.7% | |
| 5/23/03 | With bond yields down and stock dividends now taxed at lower rates, equities should be attractive to more investors. | 3.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 19.5% | + |
| 5/16/03 | And another [Fed rate] cut should boost stocks. | -1.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 15.3% | + |
