As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Steve Sjuggerud’s commentary on the U.S. stock market via the DailyWealth archive since October 2005. DailyWealth is an informational service of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, which is owned by or affiliated with Agora Inc. Stansberry & Associates Investment Research also offers Steve Sjuggerud’s True Wealth, “a monthly investment advisory that boasts one of the largest followings in the world,” claiming that: “Since 2001, Steve has consistently booked double- and triple-digit returns for his subscribers.” There is no trade data to justify this claim. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Steve Sjuggerud comments on many asset types, including housing stocks, real estate, gold and currencies. We focus here on his forecasts for the overall U.S. stock market. Most of these forecasts occur after early 2008.
- His principal forecasting approach is contrarian to measures of investor sentiment. He often emphasizes the use of trailing stops to terminate trades gone bad.
- His forecast horizon is often vague, but he seems mostly to address extreme sentiment readings and their implications for return horizons several months or more in the future, and we grade his forecasts accordingly. Assuming a different forecast horizon would affect grading.
- Steve Sjuggerud’s sample is small and not long in duration relative to typical forecast horizon, so confidence in the measurement of his accuracy is low.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Steve Sjuggerud via DailyWealth.com | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 126-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 11/23/12 | We’ve just gone through a small correction. Based on investor sentiment numbers, I think we’re through the worst of it. Investors are no longer overly optimistic… This is a small correction in the great Bernanke Asset Bubble. | 1.2% | 5.6% | 17.1% | 27.9% | + |
| 10/4/12 | Bernanke has laid his cards out. We know his intentions. We expect his actions can and will drive asset prices to crazy levels. You have to position yourself for this… Own stocks… Then, sit. …this “Bernanke Asset Bubble” may be due for a short pause. But this idea will take time to cook – possibly years. | -2.3% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 15.8% | + |
| 9/13/12 | Get yourself invested in stocks now. It’s not even that important how you do it… a simple, broad stock market fund will do the job. It’s just important that you do it… | -2.2% | -2.8% | 6.3% | 18.0% | + |
| 4/26/12 | Stocks are the most attractive in a half-century, Jeremy Siegel says. I agree with him. He predicts the Dow could rise by 4,000 points between now and the end of 2013. I’m usually not as bold as Siegel is in putting hard predictions down like that. But I think he’ll turn out to be right… | -5.9% | -4.4% | 0.9% | 14.1% | + |
| 4/16/12 | We are only partway through the Bernanke Asset Bubble. It should last another two years… at the very least. And asset prices have the potential to soar in this environment. | -2.8% | -0.9% | 4.6% | 14.1% | + |
| 3/22/12 | Right now, I believe we’re still in the “sweet spot” in stocks. I believe we’re in the “legitimate uptrend” portion of a bull market in stocks – the time when the big gains are made… All the ingredients are in place for an incredible year in stocks… | -1.9% | -2.7% | 4.9% | 12.7% | 0 |
| 2/27/12 | I am personally still bullish on stocks. I believe we’ll eventually see much higher highs in the stock market this year…Yes, the market is due for a correction, but that’s all it will be. | 3.3% | -3.4% | 2.5% | 11.5% | + |
| 11/28/11 | I believe stocks…bottomed out at the beginning of October, when the S&P 500 index stopped falling near 1,100. I believed that was the start of a new uptrend – a new bull run. …Stocks in general are cheap. So I am willing to give up a little downside risk (using a stop loss) to participate in the incredible upside potential from here. | 4.8% | 15.1% | 11.7% | 18.2% | + |
| 10/10/11 | … we have two of the three things we look for before piling into an investment… Stocks are 1) cheap and 2) hated (as consumer confidence is low). We are just missing the uptrend. It’s about to be an incredible time to be an investor… But we’re not quite there yet. | 6.8% | 7.2% | 13.7% | 19.9% | – |
| 9/12/11 | …for now, the trend is down. Don’t fight it. | 2.9% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 25.6% | + |
| 8/22/11 | …volatility has finally reached a high enough level where history shows you can make big money from it…as volatility settles down, you make REAL MONEY in stocks. Trade accordingly… | 3.8% | 8.2% | 21.2% | 24.8% | + |
| 8/5/11 | Individual investors are scared… The correction is likely over. | -2.8% | 3.2% | 12.1% | 16.9% | + |
| 7/18/11 | …stocks have doubled since their March 2009 lows… Doesn’t this bull run in stocks have to end already? Absolutely not. It’s still “the best time to buy in a generation”…the “setup” conditions are still in place for this bull market to continue. |
-8.6% | -7.8% | -1.3% | 5.4% | – |
| 6/27/11 | When everything is in a downtrend, there’s no point in trying to swim upstream. With stocks as cheap as they are now, we can afford to miss the first 5%-10% of a new uptrend when it arrives. …Better to wait for it to make its turn and then hop on board | 1.9% | -11.2% | -2.0% | 3.8% | + |
| 5/24/11 | …you must recognize stocks are as cheap as they’ve been in decades and interest rates are at record lows. And you must consider buying. | -2.5% | -14.6% | -7.6% | 0.1% | – |
| 5/10/11 | If the last few times are any indication, the end of the Fed’s “easy money” could mean the continuation of this bull market in stocks… one that could last for years. | -5.0% | -17.5% | -7.7% | -0.3% | – |
| 1/19/11 | …you should have your portfolio positioned for a flat stock market, at best, over the next two to three months. | 4.6% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | – |
| 1/6/11 | …investors are now more complacent than I’ve ever seen. The only comparison I can remember is the dot-com days back in late 1999-2000…you don’t want to aggressively buy stocks now. …I’ve made my biggest gains when investors are terrified and things are stealthily getting less bad. …We’re in the opposite situation today. Trade accordingly. | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 1.4% | – |
| 12/20/10 | It’s Finally Time to Sell Stocks …over the next three months or so, the risk is not worth the potential reward. The smart play is to pull back your leverage and move to higher ground. …we’re selling a good number of positions. | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | -0.3% | – |
| 12/6/10 | We have a set of conditions in the stock market that could cause an extraordinary boom in 2011. …I expect we could see a Nasdaq-in-2000 style runup… | 4.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.1% | – |
| 11/20/10 | Stay Long Stocks …with the Bernanke Asset Bubble in full swing, it’s worth it to hang in there. | 5.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | -3.0% | + |
| 10/25/10 | Don’t sell your winners now for a quick profit. Now, more than ever, don’t accept a single when you can hit a home run. …Stay “all in.” Sit tight. Don’t cut and run. | -0.4% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 4.8% | + |
| 10/9/10 | This is a moment when you want to own stocks…it’s a bull market in everything. And that should continue. Get on board. | 4.1% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 3.6% | + |
| 9/29/10 | …our proven indicators are giving the “all clear” sign – but investors are still scared of stocks. This is a moment we hope for as a stock investor. It’s time to speculate in stocks. …don’t shy away from investing in stocks right this moment. …this is the moment to step up and speculate. | 3.4% | 9.9% | 15.3% | -1.2% | + |
| 9/1/10 | When things get as gloomy as they are today, 98% of the time stocks have been higher three months later. “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” Warren Buffett – the greatest investor in history – says. Others are fearful now… | 6.1% | 9.3% | 21.1% | 8.7% | + |
| 8/27/10 | …With history as our guide, it’s probably a time to be optimistic. …Many high-quality stocks are cheap. | 7.8% | 12.6% | 24.0% | 13.9% | + |
| 7/9/10 | A Three-Month Rally in Stocks Starts Now… Stocks are a great value right now… | 4.6% | 7.6% | 18.4% | 21.9% | + |
| 6/26/10 | The bad news is out in the sunshine, and blue chips are cheap. | 2.9% | 6.9% | 17.0% | 21.7% | + |
| 4/21/10 | You don’t make money over the long run when you buy stocks as expensive as they are today. While stocks are this expensive, trade carefully… with one eye on the exits. …At these lofty prices, the outlook for stocks in general isn’t good. | -11.1% | -10.2% | -1.8% | 10.9% | + |
| 4/16/10 | After weeks and weeks of a “safe” bull market, investors are downright greedy these days. Don’t fall for it. | -4.6% | -8.0% | -3.6% | 9.5% | + |
| 3/24/10 | The easy money is over. It’s time to play good defense with your stock positions… | 4.2% | -6.2% | -2.4% | 12.5% | 0 |
| 2/3/10 | Is the worst over in stocks? Or is another leg down coming? I personally believe the worst is over. | 3.8% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 19.5% | + |
| 8/12/09 | …the end of the rally is closer. But don’t bail. Have courage. Keep holding your positions, as there could still be significant upside in the next few months… | 3.7% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | + |
| 6/24/09 | We’re staying in the game with stocks. The Great Recession is over and we want to be along for the ride. But we’ve got a finger on the eject button… | 8.7% | 18.9% | 23.7% | 19.3% | + |
| 5/29/09 | If you’re an investor and you thought the end of the world was here in March, now is the time to be in stocks. The market can continue to rally for many more months. …things are getting “less bad” – which is the ultimate time to own stocks. | 0.9% | 11.9% | 20.3% | 19.5% | + |
| 5/12/09 | Get ready. Our top stock market signal is just about to flash a “buy.” | 4.0% | 10.9% | 17.7% | 25.0% | + |
| 3/20/09 | To make the biggest gains here, we have to own stocks well before the script has completely played out. Now is the time in the script you want to buy stocks. | 10.6% | 19.5% | 38.6% | 51.9% | + |
| 2/24/09 | No hurry to buy stocks now. Better to play it safe than to try timing the bottom here… | 5.3% | 14.7% | 32.7% | 42.9% | 0 |
| 1/16/09 | If I’m right, you should make a pile of money investing in…stocks…in 2009. | -7.3% | 2.3% | 10.6% | 31.3% | + |
| 12/12/08 | …this is not a time to get out of stocks. This is a time to buy. | 0.0% | -20.9% | 3.6% | 21.2% | – |
| 11/7/08 | …we’ll stick with what we’ve found works… buying exceptional value, when investors are extremely scared and we have the start of an uptrend in place. …but we’re still missing that legitimate uptrend. | -4.5% | -6.6% | -2.3% | 18.0% | + |
| 10/28/08 | …both history… and Warren Buffett… tell us that now is exactly when you need to be bold and buy stocks….now is the time to invest and get rich… | -5.6% | -7.1% | -7.1% | 10.2% | – |
| 10/21/08 | …I think stocks will have an exceptional run over the next 12 months. Make sure you don’t miss it! | -10.1% | -6.3% | -5.9% | 20.4% | 0 |
| 10/7/08 | Stocks are cheaper today than they’ve been in over 20 years. …We’re missing the uptrend, so I can’t recommend buying just yet. | -4.4% | -6.2% | -18.1% | 7.6% | + |
| 8/1/08 | …we’re very close to an ideal situation for making money in stocks: …We’re just missing the uptrend. | 1.4% | -26.2% | -34.5% | -20.4% | + |
| 7/29/08 | So at this point, I think we’re closer to the start of something great, rather than on the brink of much more pain. | 1.5% | -30.6% | -33.0% | -21.8% | – |
| 7/18/08 | …I bought a variety of stocks…though it feels extremely risky out there now, it’s probably the least risky time to buy stocks in the last decade. | 1.4% | -28.0% | -33.1% | -24.3% | – |
| 5/20/08 | Consumer confidence is terrible! Stocks are much closer to a “buy” than a “sell.” | -5.0% | -9.5% | -38.2% | -37.2% | – |
| 4/15/08 | The bad news is already priced in. Now the bar is low… It’s the time when you make money in stocks. …know when it’s a great time to buy… and now is one of those times! | 5.6% | -8.0% | -32.6% | -34.8% | – |
| 11/21/07 | Investors are nearly unanimously scared. It’s time to find where they’re most afraid… and put a few chips there. | 4.8% | -4.5% | -1.6% | -39.9% | – |
| 10/5/07 | I think the bull market in everything is already here. Position yourself accordingly… | -4.4% | -8.6% | -13.8% | -38.9% | – |
| 8/23/07 | Instead of betting on a decline from here, this is what I see: Based on valuation, stocks are as cheap as they’ve been in a dozen years. The Fed is about to start cutting interest rates. And if you believe that you’ve got to be a contrarian to make money, the contrary thing is to believe in stocks when most people don’t… and that’s now. Don’t worry. And don’t hustle out and sell things in haste. | 3.8% | -1.6% | -7.5% | -13.1% | – |
| 12/1/06 | …the rally that started in July is now over. …Take your profits now… | 1.5% | -0.1% | 9.6% | 7.9% | – |
| 7/24/06 | If you’re buying stocks right now, chances are very good that, a few months from now, you’ll be glad you did… | 3.0% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 15.7% | + |
