We evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Richard Russell, mostly since mid-2002. Evaluated predictions/recommendations come indirectly via MarketWatch columns, which have tracked his commentary closely in recent years. Richard Russell has since 1958 been editor-publisher of the Dow Theory Letters, which “cover the U.S. stock market, foreign markets, bonds, precious metals, commodities, economics — plus Russell’s widely-followed comments and observations and stock market philosophy.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Richard Russell generally follows Dow Theory, as modified by a few critical indicators and his judgment.
- This evaluation addresses the nuances of his commentary, as reported by MarketWatch, and not just one or two big market calls.
- Because Mr. Russell issues daily commentaries and sometimes changes his sentiment quickly , we include a 5-trading day test of his forecasts. However, we tune evaluations of specific comments to timeframes addressed, sensitive to the possibility that MarketWatch columns sometimes lag his forecasts. His comments are sometimes difficult to evaluate because of sweeping statements and multi-horizon components.
- Richard Russell’s forecast sample is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
Here are additional notes to augment the tabular summary:
From Mark Hulbert in MarketWatch (5/30/12): “The HFD has data back to the beginning of 2002 for three hypothetical portfolios that traded between an index fund and cash on these three timers’ interpretation of the Dow Theory. Schannep is well in the lead for performance since then, followed by Moroney. Russell is solidly in third place.”
From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (9/12/11): “…his insights tend to be so incoherent (or Delphic) that the Hulbert Financial Digest no longer constructs and monitors a model portfolio for him.”
From Mark Hulbert in MarketWatch (4/7/11): “Though his track record over the last decade has been below-par, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, his timing of the market’s primary trend during the 1980s and 1990s was at the top of the risk-adjusted performance rankings.”
From Mark Hulbert in MarketWatch (2/11/11): “Richard Russell made a remarkable confession earlier this week. He said that he finds the financial markets to be so inscrutable that trying to time them is close to futile. He says that he’s therefore decided to invest a good chunk of the accounts he manages in a mutual fund that has a static allocation to several uncorrelated asset classes.” [Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX)]
From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (8/6/07): “According to the Hulbert Financial Digest, Russell is tied for top place as a market timer on a risk-adjusted basis since 1980.”
From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (7/20/06): “Over the period si nce the Hulbert Financial Digest began, in mid-1980, Russell has been the top-performing market timer on a risk-adjusted basis.”
From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (7/22/05): “Russell is the top market timer on a risk-adjusted basis of all letters followed by the Hulbert Financial Digest since mid-1980. The last twelve months have been relatively difficult for Russell. A portfolio based on his timing gained only 1% through the end of June, vs. over 21% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Index. But the HFD takes no account of Russell’s helpful hints — And over the last three years ending in June, Russell’s timing produced a 1.5% annualized gain, vs. a 0.8% gain for the Wilshire. Over the last five years, he gained at a 1.3% annualized rate, vs. a loss of 1% a year for the Wilshire.” [Note that this assessment assumes 100% cash as Mr. Russell’s position over the prior five years.]
Our evaluation generally squares with Mr. Russell’s contemporaneous measurement of performance from the Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD). Why might his long-term HFD rating be so much more positive than our evaluation here? Possibilities are: (1) Mr. Russell was very lucky years ago, but his luck ran out; (2) Mr. Russell’s timing approach used to work, but does not anymore; and, (3) differences in evaluation methodology regarding commentary nuance and penalties for off-target predictions make our grading tougher.
See “Dow Theory Long Dead?” for an analytic reconsideration of Dow Theory as a timing strategy by Stephen Brown, William Goetzmann and Alok Kumar.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus. For methodologies comparable to Mr. Russell’s, see especially Richard Moroney and Jack Schannep.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments re: Richard Russell at MarketWatch | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 8/9/12 | …ominously, he’s now significantly more bearish than he was during this summer’s sag. | 0.9% | 1.9% | -1.8% | 18.4% | – |
| 8/1/12 | …out of the stock market. | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 22.9% | – |
| 7/9/12 | …go with the bear signal. | 0.1% | 3.6% | 8.1% | 24.4% | – |
| 5/14/12 | …he’s out of stocks completely. “…something big is coming up, and I don’t think it will be good. Caution is the watchword now. This is the quiet before the storm.” | -1.7% | -6.1% | 5.0% | 24.5% | + |
| 2/7/12 | …he’s worried about the Dow transports’ weakness and, in part for that reason, is largely out of the stock market. | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 12.8% | – |
| 1/9/12 | ““I consider all this action to be a part of the construction of a top.” | 1.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 14.8% | – |
| 12/15/11 | “…we are back in the grip of a vicious and ruthless bear. …I believe we’re going to see a brutal stock market that will shock the Fed and the bulls and the public…” | 3.1% | 7.6% | 15.5% | 18.7% | – |
| 11/28/11 | “Crumbling debt will act like a cement roller, crushing everything in its path. The occasional rebound or bounces on the lows will be sudden and short-lived.” | 5.4% | 4.8% | 15.1% | 18.2% | – |
| 9/22/11 | “I get an increasingly ugly feeling that we are re-living 1930”. That means a double-dip and a return to 2008’s lows — at least. | 2.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 27.6% | – |
| 8/8/11 | …he is frankly bearish… | 7.6% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 25.3% | – |
| 7/21/11 | Russell has not actually given a sell signal and is still in the market… | -3.2% | -16.4% | -8.8% | -0.4% | – |
| 6/6/11 | “The market is probably now in the process of forming a complex top.” | -1.1% | 4.1% | -6.4% | 2.2% | + |
| 4/11/11 | “…this is still a bull market — and that consideration overrides everything else.” | -1.5% | 1.3% | -0.4% | 3.5% | – |
| 4/7/11 | …he believes we should be looking for optimal times to get into stocks rather than when to get out. “…any forthcoming correction should serve as a buying opportunity.” | -1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | – |
| 3/18/11 | …also bullish on the stock market…is Richard Russell… | 2.7% | 2.0% | -0.9% | 9.7% | + |
| 2/3/11 | “I’m changing my position on the stock market. I’m now recommending buying the Dow…” | 1.1% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | + |
| 1/13/11 | “There’s no way around it, the long-term technical position of the stock market remains bullish. …why don’t I simply ignore everything else and load up with the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust? The main reason is VALUES. That 1.86% DIVIDEND YIELD in the S&P 500 Index worries me. I couldn’t sit with stocks with that statistic in mind…” | 0.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | – |
| 12/13/10 | “IF the Dow can muster up the strength to break out… above 11,450, the trend will revert to bullish.” [Closed above 11,450 on 12/14/10.] | 0.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | -2.3% | + |
| 11/11/10 | “This is not the time to load up on stocks. Stocks today are priced to produce future losses.” | -1.4% | 2.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | – |
| 7/26/10 | …Russell has said that this buy signal has significance primarily for the short term, since on his interpretation stocks remain in a longer-term bear market. | 1.0% | -5.7% | 5.9% | 17.0% | – |
| 7/19/10 | We’re in a primary bear market…” | 4.1% | 2.0% | 9.6% | 23.8% | – |
| 7/8/10 | “…one of the hardest things to do in this business is to get out of a bear market early and then STAY OUT — no buys, no shorts. This was a dramatically impressive day. … But no cigar yet.” | 2.5% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 23.3% | – |
| 7/1/10 | Russell’s proprietary technical indicator is now bearish. “Nevertheless, the stock market should give us a meaningless rally shortly.” | 4.9% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 30.2% | – |
| 5/24/10 | …his point-and-figure chart projection suggests the Dow could fall to 8600. | -0.3% | 1.7% | -0.2% | 23.0% | – |
| 5/19/10 | “Do your friends a favor. Tell them to ‘batten down the hatches’ because there’s a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don’t need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that…by the end of this year they won’t recognize the country.” | -4.2% | 0.2% | -2.0% | 19.6% | – |
| 3/18/10 | “A Dow Theory bull signal — the primary trend of the market is bullish. …What am I personally going to do about it? Honestly, nothing. Stocks are generally overvalued in this area…priced to produce losses over the years…” | 0.0% | 2.7% | -4.4% | 11.4% | – |
| 2/10/10 | “Dow is now on its way down to test the March 9, 2009, low of Dow 6,547” He is recommending that clients have none of their portfolios allocated to the stock market. | 3.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 24.4% | – |
| 2/1/10 | “…I think the Dow will violate first its November low and then its March low. …It will be a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286… If the Dow does not halt its decline at 7,286, I see it sinking down to…around Dow 1,000.” | -3.0% | 2.7% | 9.0% | 19.7% | – |
| 1/25/10 | “…the picture is becoming progressively more ugly….this market has the potential to panic on the downside. …Remember, after a 90% down-day, it is normal to see a 4 to 7 ‘dead cat bounce’ on the upside. It’s like a man who’s shot getting up for a few seconds in shock — just before he falls down again.” | -0.7% | 0.8% | 11.0% | 18.2% | – |
| 11/27/09 | Richard Russell…who just a few days previously had declared that the intermediate and primary trends were now bullish, changed his mind. “I had no specific reason to do so, except for my gut-feeling.” | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 10.5% | – |
| 11/18/09 | Richard Russell [is] now officially bullish on both the secondary and primary trends of the stock market. | 0.1% | -0.7% | -0.1% | 7.9% | + |
| 11/9/09 | “It appears that the Industrial Average might have enough strength to make it to a new high above its October 19 high close of 10092.19.” | 1.5% | 0.3% | -2.1% | 11.0% | + |
| 10/16/09 | He continues to believe that we’re in a primary bear market, but is nevertheless impressed by the joint new highs that the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports reached earlier this week. “The secondary trend of the market is now decisively bullish.” | -0.7% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 0 |
| 10/12/09 | …Richard Russell, is even gloomier, because of what he sees as “a major non-confirmation,” with the Dow Jones Transportation Average failing to echo the new high scored by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. | 2.0% | 1.6% | 6.6% | 9.1% | – |
| 9/21/09 | “…the secondary trend is powerfully bullish…” | -0.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.7% | + |
| 7/27/09 | “…we are now dealing with an extended bear market rally. … But I’m operating on the thesis that a primary (secular) bear market is still in force (although it has been suspended for a while)….the final and true bottom of the bear market had not been seen.” | 2.1% | 4.7% | 11.3% | 12.2% | – |
| 7/9/09 | “We are in a potentially huge bear market…the dividend yield on the S&P is now 0.77%. At a bear market bottom, it’s not unusual for the dividend yield on the S&P to rise to 5 or 6%. I expect to see those yields again before this bear market is over.” | 6.6% | 14.5% | 19.5% | 24.1% | – |
| 6/12/09 | …Russell currently rates the stock market’s primary trend as being down. | -2.6% | -4.3% | 10.3% | 17.8% | – |
| 5/4/09 | “…the primary trend of the market cannot be manipulated.” And, Russell says, it’s bearish. | 0.2% | 2.7% | 8.8% | 24.3% | – |
| 4/17/09 | Russell is still in cash, but not so firmly… “Let’s wait a while to see if this market corrects.” | -0.4% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 38.7% | – |
| 3/12/09 | He didn’t think Tuesday’s follow-through was strong enough to change his renewed bearish stance. But…for younger subscribers with lower blood pressure, “a speculative position in Dow Diamonds ETF…with a stop-loss at 64 is an interesting trade.” | 4.4% | 14.4% | 25.1% | 54.4% | 0 |
| 2/19/09 | “With a great bear market [now] in force, we’re forced to think in terms of individual or family survival. …More inflation on top of a bear market that was created out of debt and inflation will not work…” | -3.4% | -1.3% | 16.6% | 40.5% | – |
| 2/2/09 | …he won’t turn bearish on the stock market’s major trend “unless or until the Dow [Industrials] violates its Nov. 20 closing of 7,552.29…I [therefore] decided to hold off on placing the bear on the site until we receive a bearish confirmation by the Industrial Average…despite the fact that I don’t like the market action.” | 5.4% | -13.6% | 6.3% | 28.8% | – |
| 1/26/09 | …Russell is on the sidelines… | -1.3% | -8.6% | 3.5% | 29.6% | + |
| 1/12/09 | Russell…has returned to his old habit of posting a picture at the top of his letter to help his…readers figure out what exactly he’s saying. Right now, the picture is a long-horned bull. “…most of any coming bad news has been discounted.” | -7.5% | -4.2% | -1.3% | 32.0% | – |
| 10/8/08 | …still not enough to justify calling a bottom: Russell even speculates that the market may test the 2002 low Dow low of 7,286. | -7.8% | -8.1% | -7.9% | 9.3% | + |
| 9/18/08 | “The great stock market balance has finally tipped over to the downside, and the extent of the potential market losses ahead are now unknown. …move as far as possible into cash and T-bills with a balance against catastrophe via gold coins.” | 0.2% | -18.3% | -24.3% | -11.2% | + |
| 7/31/08 | “Until proven otherwise, the long-term trend of the Dow is now down.” | -0.1% | 1.2% | -25.8% | -20.7% | + |
| 6/23/08 | “I continue to advise cash and gold…Lousy Fridays are often followed up by rotten Mondays.” | -2.9% | -2.7% | -4.8% | -30.2% | + |
| 5/1/08 | “…I’m going on the assumption that we’ve seen the bottom for this market. I have to think that the market has fully discounted all the bad news. The only thing I think would break this market down would be a total surprise…” | -1.8% | -2.0% | -9.2% | -36.1% | – |
| 4/9/08 | The lows of October 2002 and January 2008…represent nothing more than “important secondary or cyclical correction-bottoms. …the major stock averages have been building huge bases,” and…appear ready to move much higher — to new all-time highs…”somewhere between 2008 and 2010.” | 0.8% | 2.5% | -6.0% | -36.6% | – |
| 3/20/08 | “The main thing to do here is probably not to do anything. Sit with Treasury bills and gold… The best description I can think of for this stock market is a car careening downhill with no brakes and an engine running on the wrong fuel.” | -1.1% | 4.4% | 0.6% | -39.4% | – |
| 3/12/08 | “…it could turn out to be more than ‘just a turnaround.’ Ideally, what I’d like to see now is a 90% day on the upside. If that were to occur, we could be seeing a key reversal…” …Russell’s wish for a 90% up day apparently was granted… | -0.8% | 1.8% | 3.8% | -42.4% | + |
| 2/27/08 | “My suggestion, if you are willing to trade, is to take a position in Dow Diamonds ETF…based on my ‘guess’ that the Dow and the Transports will break out above their Feb. 1 closing highs.” | -3.4% | -4.7% | 0.4% | -49.2% | – |
| 2/4/08 | “…unless the Transports and the Industrials both break below their January lows, the market is saying that it has already discounted the worst that can be seen ahead. As I see it, the lows have been put in, but the upside remains open-ended.” | -3.0% | -3.4% | 1.9% | -38.7% | – |
| 1/21/08 | “…we’re watching a deadly international bear market, one that is pressing down on every stock exchange on the planet. How it will all work out I honestly don’t know. I’ve lived through a number of bear markets, but this one is shaping up as a ‘biggie,’ a real brute.” | 4.0% | 2.4% | 5.9% | -36.5% | – |
| 1/14/08 | His proprietary Primary Trend Indicator is bearish and he’s been shocked by recent stock market action to the point where he’s taken to referring to a primary bear market. | -7.5% | -3.5% | -6.2% | -40.4% | + |
| 11/21/07 | Sell. | 3.7% | 4.8% | -4.5% | -39.9% | + |
| 10/22/07 | “Now it looks to me as though the Dow will test its 200-day moving average, which is around 13137.” | 2.3% | -4.4% | -13.0% | -41.8% | + |
| 9/20/07 | Richard Russell…obviously feels his long-awaited buy signal is now safe from being whipsawed. | 0.8% | -1.2% | -4.2% | -21.8% | – |
| 8/23/07 | “What did I think of [yesterday’s] action? Here’s what I thought of it I bought DIAMONDS Trust, which is an ETF for the Dow. That should answer your question.” | -0.3% | 3.8% | -1.6% | -13.1% | – |
| 8/15/07 | …the current pullback [is] a correction within a long-term bull market… | 4.1% | 5.5% | 2.3% | -9.1% | – |
| 8/6/07 | “This is turning into one mean-looking decline…calls for defensive action on the part of investors.” | -1.0% | 0.3% | 2.8% | -13.7% | – |
| 7/16/07 | “…we’re now early into the third or speculative phase of a great bull market …from a Dow Theory standpoint the new record highs in BOTH the Industrials and Transports was a HUGE PLUS in the price structure, and the Dow Averages were confirmed by a new high in the S&P. Who could ask for anything more? | -0.5% | -7.9% | 0.3% | -18.7% | – |
| 6/18/07 | Values be damned, it’s “Get me out of paper money and into something of real value.” | -2.2% | 1.0% | -3.1% | -12.3% | + |
| 6/7/07 | “Normally, the first ‘interest rate scare’ won’t stop a bull market. And I’m reasonably sure that it won’t stop this one. However, the tightening interest rates may be enough to trigger the first real correction since the March 2003 lows.” | 2.2% | 2.8% | -1.2% | -8.9% | + |
| 5/31/07 | “…the early part of the third phase of the bull market is now underway.” | -2.6% | -1.8% | -6.4% | -10.0% | – |
| 5/8/07 | “To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over half a century, this was like a clap of thunder… My take on the situation is that the stock market (and the Dow Theory) told us that an unprecedented world boom lies ahead.” | -0.8% | -1.4% | -3.0% | -8.2% | – |
| 4/19/07 | “Market is really straining… There’s an awful lot of enthusiasm in this market, and some kind of a decline is overdue.” | 1.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | -6.4% | – |
| 2/15/07 | “…this kind of strength with all three D-J Averages at new record highs doesn’t usually reverse in a hurry.” | 0.2% | -3.8% | 3.9% | -6.6% | – |
| 2/1/07 | “This is a very unusual market, and it’s senseless and dangerous to try to outguess it. When the inevitable correction comes, I think it will be fast and scary … Trying to catch the turn can be expensive and nerve-wracking. I don’t recommend it.” | 0.2% | -5.0% | 3.5% | -7.6% | + |
| 12/21/06 | “This is not a healthy situation, and it makes me think we’re coming ever-closer to the end of this strange, highly speculative advance in the stock market.” | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 4.1% | – |
| 12/1/06 | …he is very bearish on the stock market’s primary trend. Nevertheless, Russell conceded earlier this week that the new high for the Dow Jones Utility Average is “both bullish and impressive.” | 0.9% | 1.5% | -0.1% | 7.9% | – |
| 11/16/06 | …Russell is still out of the market. | 0.1% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 1.2% | – |
| 11/9/06 | …he is back to thinking negative big-picture thoughts, especially about housing (” … I think it’s going to be a very hard landing, one that will work a hardship on the entire nation.”) | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.7% | – |
| 10/16/06 | …the stock market’s action constitutes “a great top that has been forming since the year 2000.” …”the recent breakout of the Dow (unconfirmed by the Transports) was a fake-out.” | 0.6% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 9.6% | – |
| 10/5/06 | “Stocks are too expensive for me I’ll watch the show, but you guessed it I won’t be short.” | 0.7% | 0.8% | 4.2% | 15.5% | – |
| 10/2/06 | …the Dow Theory remains in the sell mode it has been in since late 1999. | 1.5% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 17.0% | – |
| 9/14/06 | For now, he’s still in gold and cash. | 0.1% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 16.2% | – |
| 7/20/06 | …we’re very close to major trouble in the stock market. | 1.1% | 4.3% | 9.2% | 21.5% | – |
| 7/6/06 | …despite “bobbing and weaving … the big picture is that it’s a bear market.” | -2.5% | 0.4% | 4.7% | 19.2% | – |
| 6/12/06 | …the stock market will be heading considerably lower into the fourth quarter this year. So except for dribs and drabs of oils and utilities, I’m on the sidelines – sitting mainly with T-bills and money market stuff along with gold which I will probably never sell. | 0.3% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 24.0% | – |
| 4/17/06 | All in all, this is a good market to pretty much stay out of. | 1.8% | 0.5% | -3.8% | 15.5% | + |
| 3/23/06 | Amid massive liquidity, the stock market looks as though it wants to go higher… | -0.1% | 0.5% | -3.8% | 8.9% | – |
| 3/15/06 | …the trend remains a question mark. …he’s still officially bearish. …his instincts are bearish. | 0.2% | -1.1% | -6.1% | 8.3% | + |
| 2/17/06 | Russell’s instincts are cautious. | 0.5% | 0.8% | -2.0% | 12.7% | + |
| 1/6/06 | …it is worrisome that the DJIA took so long – nearly three months – to confirm the DJTA’s strength. …valuations today are far from cheap. | 0.2% | -2.4% | 1.8% | 10.8% | + |
| 1/2/06 | The poor performance of the stock market during the last week or so of 2005 does not make me any more optimistic about 2006. …This is indicative of a major market top. | 1.6% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 11.4% | – |
| 12/19/05 | Russell sees short-term strength in store for the stock market, along with long-term weakness. | -0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 12.6% | – |
| 12/5/05 | This is a very mixed market, but my PTI is bullish, and I’d forget about shorts here. | -0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 11.5% | + |
| 11/16/05 | …characteristic of the final advance in a tired market. | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 13.8% | – |
| 10/31/05 | Richard Russell…has been growing increasingly alarmed recently. | 1.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 13.3% | – |
| 9/21/05 | Russell…appears to be backing off the…qualified endorsement he gave to stocks recently. | 0.6% | -2.7% | 4.1% | 9.6% | + |
| 9/7/05 | Richard Russell…has turned “totally neutral on the stock market — at least as to the secondary trend.” …his advice remains unchanged for investors, as opposed to speculators: Stay primarily in cash. | -0.7% | -3.6% | 2.1% | 5.1% | + |
| 8/16/05 | …it’s much better to do nothing. | -0.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 6.8% | + |
| 8/11/05 | …he restated his long-standing bearishness, with a little wiggle room… | -1.5% | 0.2% | -1.6% | 3.9% | + |
| 7/29/05 | …the market may continue to be strong for another six months or so… | -0.6% | -1.8% | -3.5% | 3.6% | – |
| 7/22/05 | He’s out of the market now… I don’t sense any real downside pressure on the stock market — at least not yet. | 0.0% | -1.0% | -3.1% | 2.8% | + |
| 5/19/05 | I most definitely would not want to be short here. | 0.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 5.5% | + |
| 4/15/05 | …we have what I would call a Dow Theory bear signal… | 0.8% | 2.0% | 7.3% | 14.6% | – |
| 3/31/05 | …this rally should go further, maybe into Friday… | 0.9% | -2.0% | 1.8% | 9.9% | – |
| 3/24/05 | Russell [is] talking about a (very) short-term rally but hating the market. Sort of a bullish bearish bear. | 0.1% | -0.8% | 3.6% | 10.4% | – |
| 3/7/05 | He is suggesting “a speculative position”… It’s not counted by the Hulbert Financial Digest monitoring system because it’s not a formal recommendation. | -1.5% | -3.4% | -2.4% | 3.8% | – |
| 2/17/05 | Evidently, the stock market hasn’t made up its mind which way it wants to go. Result is that it’s going nowhere. | 0.9% | -1.4% | -1.3% | 7.7% | + |
| 1/31/05 | Russell remains intensely agitated. He describes the current situation as “a grim struggle.” | 1.7% | 2.4% | -2.1% | 7.6% | – |
| 1/10/05 | This is one of the most overvalued markets in Wall Street History. …The last thing Wall Street wants to see is a down-January. Therefore, I’m thinking we could see quite a bit of manipulation ahead. | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.8% | 8.0% | – |
| 12/30/04 | Russell continues unashamedly bearish… | -2.1% | -2.7% | -2.7% | 4.6% | + |
| 12/22/04 | …this is such a strange market, extremely overvalued but at the same time, jazzed-up by liquidity and low interest rates — that I wouldn’t count on anything, and I wouldn’t bet on anything. | 0.3% | -3.8% | -3.1% | 4.9% | + |
| 12/3/04 | On this interpretation of Russell’s writings, a Dow Theory buy signal will not get issued for quite some time — not until P/E ratios fall towards the low end of their historical range and dividend yields rise to the high end of theirs. Absent a monumental crash, that is probably years away. | -0.3% | -0.3% | 2.6% | 6.1% | + |
| 11/4/04 | …the Hubert Financial Digest’s ruthless monitoring system shows Russell still out of the market. | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 5.3% | – |
| 9/22/04 | Russell means it. He is out of the market — OUT. | 0.1% | -0.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | – |
| 9/3/04 | Russell still is bearish for the stock market’s longer-term. But strength in the Dow Transports Average on Thursday was enough to cause Russell to switch his opinion of the market’s shorter-term prospects. …he doubts that the market will be able to produce very attractive long-term returns from current levels. | 1.1% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 11.0% | – |
| 8/23/04 | Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters thinks the stock market is moving for its own reasons — down. | 0.3% | 1.6% | 8.0% | 10.4% | – |
| 8/9/04 | My advice is to be OUT, OUT, OUT of this market and to be in cash. PS — It wouldn’t surprise me if they “pull” the Google offering. | 1.3% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 15.4% | – |
| 8/5/04 | Russell is bearish but waiting for a break either way on much higher volume. | -1.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 13.2% | – |
| 7/22/04 | …what Russell thinks the market is supposed to do is go down. …the market is virtually devoid of values. | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 12.1% | – |
| 7/15/04 | …the averages will break out to the downside. | -0.9% | -3.8% | 1.4% | 10.3% | + |
| 6/28/04 | …something is wrong. I don’t know what it is — but I listen to the language of the market, and it’s saying, “Careful, hot-shot, something’s wrong…” | -1.5% | -3.3% | -2.1% | 5.9% | + |
| 5/20/04 | …Richard Russell…is bearish. …what we’re seeing is a race to get to the November elections without a disaster occurring. And I think that’s going to be rather difficult. | 2.9% | 4.2% | 0.2% | 9.6% | – |
| 5/10/04 | …it would not surprise me if this market were to crash. …The ideal position at this time is cash… | -0.3% | 4.1% | -2.0% | 6.6% | – |
| 4/16/04 | Russell is again facing a similar test: he is in the minority who think the market is topping out. | 0.5% | -4.5% | -2.9% | 0.3% | + |
| 4/12/04 | Richard Russell advocated “extreme caution” in his Dow Theory Letters hotline this weekend. | -0.8% | -4.3% | -2.7% | 1.5% | + |
| 3/12/04 | …the market rally that began in October 2002 is now over. | -1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 6.0% | + |
| 3/4/04 | Russell is officially out of the market. | -4.2% | -1.1% | -2.6% | 5.6% | + |
| 2/2/04 | Russell has sold half his DIA, which he suggested for “traders” — his trick way of playing the rally. He is talking about liquidating the rest early this week. | 0.4% | 1.4% | -2.5% | 4.8% | + |
| 12/29/03 | …the bear market will resume and make new lows. | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 9.2% | – |
| 12/18/03 | Russell is still bearish. | 0.6% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 11.1% | – |
| 12/8/03 | …the market is feeling “heavier.” | -0.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 11.1% | – |
| 11/3/03 | …it’s a ‘greater fool’ market. You buy the stocks here on the hope that they’ll go up at which time you’ll be able to sell them to the proverbial ‘greater fool.” Hulbert ranks Russell as 100 percent in cash. | -1.1% | 0.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | – |
| 10/22/03 | Richard Russell…has…just intensified his bearishness… | 1.7% | 0.3% | 11.0% | 7.8% | – |
| 10/8/03 | Richard Russell…is graded by the Hulbert Financial Digest as out of the market but…has also been talking about a short-term rally… | 1.3% | 2.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | + |
| 9/4/03 | …Russell is still out of the stock market…stocks are nowhere near the valuation levels seen at previous market lows. However, …it’s a money bubble, but never mind the definitions, this market has gathered a head of steam. | -1.1% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 8.6% | – |
| 8/19/03 | …the weakish action of the various indicators may be suggesting that this rally won’t go very far. | -0.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 9.3% | – |
| 8/8/03 | But now he has decisively declined to recognize a bear market bottom. In fact, he just announced…that he expects the Dow to sell ultimately “at or below 3,000.” …the potential for big breaks to the downside. | 1.3% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | – |
| 6/29/03 | Values are ridiculous in today’s market, but let’s call it a return of the bubble… | 3.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 15.5% | – |
| 6/23/03 | Richard Russell…remain[s] bearish. | -0.7% | 0.7% | 5.6% | 15.6% | – |
| 6/9/03 | …it’s just an old fashioned correction in a primary bear market….the market is now flagrantly overbought. | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 16.4% | – |
| 6/2/03 | …go with the flow or at the very least — think with the flow. And right now, until proved otherwise, the flow is due north. Russell still regards this as a secondary rally in a bear market. | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 15.5% | + |
| 5/2/03 | …Richard Russell seems to be losing faith in the bear market rally he that he has been artfully playing by suggesting Diamonds and Spyders — but only for traders, i.e. not in his Hulbert-monitored portfolio. | 0.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 20.6% | – |
| 4/30/03 | …the rally that began in mid-March is not as strong or as healthy as it otherwise appears. | 1.4% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 21.9% | – |
| 4/24/03 | Richard Russell…is worried. | 0.5% | 2.4% | 8.5% | 24.9% | – |
| 3/31/03 | Russell has never said anything other than that recent move is a bear market correction — and, as of Saturday, he was worrying that it was running out of steam. | 3.7% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 33.5% | – |
| 3/24/03 | He unflinchingly sticks with his established forecast: a primary bear market which will only end when values get to levels last seen in 1949, 1974 or 1982. …a tradable rally — if you’re really aggressive. Officially, he’s still in cash. Right now, it seems to me that the market wants to go up. It’s conceivable that we could have a 1967-68 situation where the Dow (within the context of an ongoing bear market) actually runs up to new highs. | -1.9% | 6.3% | 15.2% | 28.3% | + |
| 3/21/03 | Russell [has] been impressed enough to accept that a secondary, bear market, rally is underway. | -3.6% | 1.7% | 11.0% | 21.8% | + |
| 3/10/03 | …still [no] stock market bottom is in sight. | 6.8% | 8.8% | 22.3% | 37.1% | – |
| 2/17/03 | …he’s now talking about another bear market rally in the stock market… | -1.5% | 2.7% | 10.9% | 34.4% | + |
| 1/27/03 | That tells me that October [Dow 7,286.27] was not a major bottom, only a stop on the way down. | 1.5% | -2.4% | 6.1% | 33.8% | – |
| 1/23/03 | This week, he’s even more triumphantly pointing to the fact that the Dow and all major averages are below their 50-day moving averages and talking darkly about the possibility of “really nasty declines.” | -4.8% | -6.2% | 3.6% | 28.9% | + |
| 12/9/02 | Stocks are not great values today. | 2.1% | 4.0% | -10.2% | 20.1% | – |
| 12/5/02 | …this rally will end eventually and the bear market will resume. …I can’t discount the possibility of the Dow ultimately testing the 1974 low of…577. | -0.5% | 1.8% | -8.6% | 16.9% | – |
| 11/25/02 | Officially bearish, though continues to play this rally… | -1.3% | -4.6% | -11.3% | 13.4% | – |
| 11/7/02 | …the stock market is overpriced… the losing stock market that began, by his estimates, in 1999, could last “anywhere from eight to 15 years …maybe two decades. …Most ordinary investors are best advised to keep their funds in cash… | 0.2% | -1.2% | -8.1% | 15.9% | + |
| 11/4/02 | …he is still making favorable noises about an equity bear market rally… | -3.5% | 1.0% | -6.6% | 16.5% | – |
| 10/14/02 | Maybe it’s time for the market to make mince-meat out of a large portion of shorts that are in this market. Maybe it’s time for the bear to give the battered bulls a little hope. Maybe it’s time for Mr. Bear to bring in a fresh batch of ‘investors’ who believe that we’ve seen the end of the bear market. Rough translation: A tradable rally may be underway… | 6.9% | 4.9% | 10.1% | 24.8% | + |
| 10/7/02 | [An] outright bear: Dow Theory Letters’ Richard Russell. | 7.2% | 16.6% | 18.3% | 32.3% | – |
| 9/17/02 | …this changed market is not even close to a market bottom… | -6.2% | -1.5% | 1.8% | 18.6% | – |
| 9/4/02 | …the all-powerful primary bear trend [eventually] will… swallow up all the manipulations… of those interests who are attempting to stem the tide. | 1.8% | -8.3% | 4.6% | 15.5% | – |
| 8/12/02 | Richard Russell, has recently allowed as how there’s a tradable stock-market rally here, although cunningly adding that he himself will not participate personally. | 5.2% | 0.6% | -0.1% | 9.6% | + |
| 8/1/02 | Richard Russell has decided this is a tradable rally and is even hinting that the bottom may have been seen. | 2.4% | 3.6% | -0.3% | 9.1% | + |
| 7/15/02 | …we are entering the second phase of a bear market, which may not continue down as dramatically and may even begin with a rally, but which is usually longer than the first phase and results in total investor despair… | -10.7% | -3.7% | -12.4% | 7.0% | + |
| 6/25/02 | Somewhere ahead, as night follows day, the public will turn bearish… | -2.9% | -14.1% | -14.6% | 0.0% | + |
| 6/10/02 | …the remarkable fact about this bear market decline is that it has, so far, failed to generate panic conditions. | 0.5% | -10.7% | -13.3% | -3.1% | + |
| 6/3/02 | Richard Russell (of Dow Theory Letters) thinks we are in the second or third inning of this bear market and that the decline in the indexes has much further to run. He also thinks that it may take several more years to reach the end of this bear. | -1.0% | -8.9% | -11.8% | -4.9% | + |
| 5/13/02 | Russell remains letterland’s most prominent bear. | 1.6% | -5.1% | -15.4% | -11.9% | + |
| 12/3/01 | …Russell has been looking at the stock market’s behavior this autumn and wondering just what keeps prices so robust. | 0.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | -19.8% | + |
| 10/2/01 | …the New York disaster is simply part of what one might expect during a great, probably historic, primary bear market. | 0.5% | 0.8% | 9.2% | -23.9% | – |
| 4/18/01 | …the bear market will continue, with the best-case scenario involving the Dow falling to 6,350. | -0.8% | 4.1% | -1.9% | -13.1% | + |
| 6/13/00 | …there can be zero doubt that we are in the first phase of a bear market, a period of gradual attrition. As the bear market continues, in the second phase…such attrition will give way to nasty selling. When the public finally really realizes that something is wrong, we move into the “give up” phase, when people who were saving for a rainy day…dump stocks just to be out of the market. | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | -17.4% | + |
