We evaluate here the weekly market commentary of Price Headley, available via now-inaccessible archives for May 2000 through December 2010, and since presented as a “Weekly Market Outlook” via BigTrends.com. Price Headley, “was inducted into the Traders’ Hall of Fame in 2007 and is the founder of BigTrends.com, which provides investors with specific real-time stock and options strategies and investment education to profit from significant market trends.” He is “a member of the Market Technicians Association. He is also a chartered financial analyst (CFA) charterholder and a chartered market technician (CMT) charterholder.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- We focus on Price Headley’s roughly testable outlooks for the S&P 500 Index, though these outlooks are still often vague.
- Although he sometimes refers to the intermediate and long terms, Price Headley focuses his commentary on short-term actions based on near-term technical trends. We therefore weight near-term stock market behavior most heavily in judging forecast accuracy.
- He sometimes swings rapidly from bullish to bearish and back again.
- Price Headley’s forecast sample is fairly large, so confidence in the measurement of his accuracy is fairly high.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Price Headley via BigTrends.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 10/1/12 | In the short run, the S&P 500 looks destined to retest the 1420/1410 area… | 0.8% | -1.2% | 1.2% | 16.0% | – |
| 9/17/12 | We’re still thinking the market is due the same pullback that was due before ECB President Draghi and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke threw big money at their respective problems. | -0.3% | -0.4% | -2.1% | 16.5% | + |
| 9/10/12 | …we have more downside to go before ‘the’ bottom has been made. That leads to the next question…. where will that bottom be?…we’re going to draw the ultimate line in the sand around…1335… | 2.2% | 0.9% | -0.7% | 18.8% | – |
| 8/27/12 | …a little bearish in the short run, but still bullish in the long run. We still expect the S&P 500 to ultimately test the floor at 1371.8…the dip is actually a huge buying opportunity for a bullish finish to the year. | -0.4% | 1.6% | -0.8% | 16.3% | + |
| 7/30/12 | …our ‘guess’ is a healthy retreat back to the 1332 area… | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 23.2% | – |
| 6/11/12 | …we’ll side with the bulls for now. | 2.7% | 2.5% | 9.9% | 25.2% | + |
| 6/4/12 | We may (probably will get a dead-cat bounce out of the move lower, but given the way the prior two big selloffs looked, we can’t say we’re at ‘the’ bottom yet. | 2.4% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 28.5% | – |
| 5/14/12 | There’s still a slight possibility the bulls can step in here and stave off a pullback. That’s the less likely outcome here, now, however. If things do get really nasty from here, it may take a move back to the 1270-ish area before the bleeding is stopped. | -1.7% | -1.8% | 5.0% | 24.5% | + |
| 4/30/12 | …it certainly looks like the market at least a little more room to run. And truth be told, it does. More than that, we think it will continue to do so…there may be enough gas in the tank to push the index all the way up to the ceiling at 1420… | -2.0% | -6.1% | -0.9% | 15.7% | – |
| 4/16/12 | …odds favor more downside. | -0.2% | -2.8% | -0.9% | 14.1% | + |
| 3/26/12 | The overall uptrend in the broad market indices…is still intact, and will be until further notice. | 0.2% | -1.8% | -5.8% | 10.9% | – |
| 2/6/12 | …if you’re not thinking like a long-term bull here, know that you’re betting against the odds. | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 12.8% | – |
| 1/9/12 | …we’re in a “buy on the dips” environment as long as any of the key support levels hold up… this is the best shot the market’s had at a true recovery in a long time. | 1.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 14.8% | + |
| 11/14/11 | The bulls have an edge here, so we’ll lean that direction. | -4.7% | -3.2% | 7.9% | 10.8% | – |
| 11/7/11 | Bottom line? We’re bullish. The index may follow-through early this week up into the 1285 area, but even if it doesn’t get started with an immediate rally, the floor’s in place to reignite it quickly. | -0.7% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 9.4% | + |
| 10/31/11 | We’re going to go ahead and play the optimist’s role here and assume that somehow the market’s going to build on the bullish foundation that’s been laid here. As such, we now have a broad (and intermediate-term) upside target of 1370 for the S&P 500… | 0.6% | -0.5% | 4.7% | 13.1% | + |
| 10/17/11 | …given the pattern that’s been in place since August – we still have to assume a pullback is in the cards… | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 21.4% | – |
| 10/10/11 | The bears still have enough control here to side with them rather than being bullish. …We’ll assume the worst/bearish… | 0.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 19.9% | – |
| 8/8/11 | This is a scenario where the best place to be may be on the sidelines for a while, while this thing runs its course. If you gotta trade though, we see more short-term upside than downside. Don’t try and catch a falling knife, however… | 7.6% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 25.3% | – |
| 7/4/11 | …the deck is stacked against the bulls this week. | -1.8% | -5.8% | -15.4% | 1.3% | + |
| 5/9/11 | …in the short run, it’s the bears that have the current edge…odds are that we’ll at least see a test of the lower band line at 1275. | -1.2% | -5.0% | -10.9% | 0.9% | + |
| 4/11/11 | …our short-term ‘guess’ is still a bearish one. | -1.5% | 1.3% | -0.4% | 3.5% | + |
| 4/4/11 | We have to assume the trend in motion will stay in motion until further notice, which technically means we’re bullish | -0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 4.9% | – |
| 3/14/11 | …the deck is still stacked against the market. | 0.2% | 1.4% | -2.0% | 8.2% | – |
| 3/7/11 | …a correction still seems to be in the cards. It doesn’t have to be a big one to burn off all the overbought pressure… just a garden variety one of 10% to 15% should be sufficient….that’s the likely direction… | -1.0% | 1.7% | -0.8% | 4.3% | – |
| 2/28/11 | …the higher-odds move here is still a bearish one. …The bulls are probably going to take a couple of good swings this week… Ultimately though, the bears are apt to start winning this war (and likely before the end of the week). | -1.3% | -0.6% | -0.1% | 3.5% | + |
| 1/31/11 | …it’s the weekly chart that sends a clear message about just how overextended and at-risk the market is at this point. It just may take a few days to really see this downside effort materialize. | 2.6% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | – |
| 12/29/10 | …the bulls are really, really pushing their luck. …Stocks are just overbought, and far from a meaningful floor. A couple of consecutive bad days should be all we need to jump-start a move toward the 1156 area. …the bears remain on hold, waiting for the Santa Clause rally to run its course. | 1.3% | 1.3% | 4.7% | -0.2% | + |
| 12/20/10 | …the lower Bollinger band line and the 100-day average line at 1153 still seem to be beckoning the S&P 500. If not now, soon. | 0.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | -0.3% | – |
| 12/5/10 | Putting all the pitfalls and red flags together technically puts the odds in favor of the bears, and against the bulls. | 1.4% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 3.1% | – |
| 10/25/10 | …the right move here is to side with the trend until it’s clear the bears are taking over. | -0.1% | -0.4% | 8.9% | 4.8% | + |
| 9/27/10 | Falling back and finding support at its key moving averages – around the 1100 at the worst – and then restarting the uptrend would actually be a more plausible breakout for the S&P 500 than continuing on from these already-overbought levels. | -0.4% | 3.8% | 10.0% | 0.8% | – |
| 7/12/10 | …the bulls have a little more to work with than the bears. | -0.7% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 22.2% | + |
| 3/15/10 | …common sense says after 7.8% gains over…five weeks, the tank’s got to be close to empty. Be very cautious as the S&P 500 continues to test new highs. | 1.3% | 5.2% | -5.1% | 9.2% | – |
| 2/1/10 | …the more likely downside target for the SPX remains around 1025/1030… | -3.0% | 2.7% | 9.0% | 19.7% | – |
| 1/17/10 | …the major trend is bullish…a brief bearish trend is likely… a pullback that…would be a good entry opportunity….the S&P 500 should find a floor around 1090. | -5.0% | -3.8% | 4.1% | 11.3% | – |
| 11/30/09 | …the pressure is on the bulls, and the wind favors the bears. | 0.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 11.5% | – |
| 11/23/09 | Though not due for a complete implosion, stock remain overbought and ripe for a decent correction. | 0.2% | 1.3% | -0.1% | 7.5% | – |
| 11/16/09 | We’re looking for corrective action at this point… STOCKS: Bullish | -0.3% | 0.0% | -0.9% | 7.9% | – |
| 11/8/09 | …the odds now slightly favor the bulls as we head into next week… | 1.5% | 0.3% | -2.1% | 11.0% | + |
| 10/21/09 | STOCKS: Bullish | -3.6% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 9.6% | – |
| 8/25/09 | …we are in a new leg of the uptrend. …Don’t miss the upside while you are waiting for a long-term re-test of the lows. | -2.9% | 2.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% | + |
| 7/27/09 | The short-term momentum remains UP for the markets — don’t fight this strong underlyling trend. | 2.1% | 4.7% | 11.3% | 12.2% | + |
| 7/20/09 | …the short-term underlying trend is bullish and should not be faded… | 3.3% | 4.1% | 15.3% | 15.0% | + |
| 6/22/09 | We remain in a bigger picture trading range, but we see a short-term bearish bias as we head into the heart of the summer months. | 3.8% | 6.8% | 19.6% | 20.2% | – |
| 6/8/09 | …the bias should be to the long side. | -1.6% | -6.3% | 6.8% | 15.7% | – |
| 5/26/09 | The underlying stock uptrends remain in place…but risk levels are high, and a downside correction could be coming soon. The VIX, Interest Rates, and the Dollar are all contributing to a potential negative underlying tone for the U.S. markets. | 3.8% | -1.0% | 12.7% | 21.2% | – |
| 5/18/09 | Our short-term view is for a trading range with a slight bearish bias. | 0.1% | 0.1% | 10.4% | 17.8% | + |
| 5/4/09 | …Weekly and Monthly charts…are like a hanging weight over this market that will kick in eventually. …these longer-term charts often take a while to play out, but ultimately will come to “bear” on this market. | 0.2% | 2.7% | 8.8% | 24.3% | – |
| 3/16/09 | More likely is that the current short-term market rally will be followed by a grinding volatile market. | 9.2% | 13.0% | 25.5% | 54.6% | – |
| 3/9/09 | …any market rally will be short-lived in nature. | 11.4% | 20.5% | 39.0% | 70.0% | – |
| 3/2/09 | It certainly does not seem like we have hit a “climactic bottom” that would mark the point of a sharp upside reversal. | -3.5% | 13.8% | 31.2% | 60.2% | – |
| 2/9/09 | The bottom line this week is that it looks like we have room for more short-term upside in the markets… | -9.3% | -17.1% | 6.8% | 24.0% | – |
| 2/2/09 | We look to be heading towards a test of the Bottom Band around 800. | 5.4% | -13.6% | 6.3% | 28.8% | – |
| 1/26/09 | We appear to be have held support at the 800 level, and may be poised to move higher towards 900, and possibly test the Top Band around 950. | -1.3% | -8.6% | 3.5% | 29.6% | – |
| 12/28/08 | …we’re still working a bearish view… Our short-term target is…850… | 7.5% | -2.8% | -9.4% | 28.3% | – |
| 12/6/08 | …we’ll take on a slightly more bullish tone for the S&P 500… After all, the market can’t keep falling forever, and now’s as good of a time as any for a recovery. | -4.5% | 0.0% | -20.9% | 21.2% | – |
| 8/16/08 | …we’re bullish on the S&P 500… | -0.9% | -8.0% | -28.7% | -21.2% | – |
| 7/26/08 | …the S&P 500 is more apt to head lower than higher from here… | 1.2% | 3.0% | -29.0% | -20.1% | – |
| 7/19/08 | We’re looking for this index to at least rally up to 1330 or so… | -0.2% | 0.5% | -24.9% | -22.5% | – |
| 7/12/08 | We expect that to be enough to jump-start what is at least a decent recovery…on the order of days. A move to 1350 is possible/likely. | 2.6% | 5.0% | -25.9% | -23.4% | – |
| 5/11/08 | Bottom line – there are more bullish scenarios here than bearish ones, even if we don’t see them play out immediately. | 1.6% | -4.9% | -7.6% | -36.4% | – |
| 4/26/08 | …we don’t trust the bulls here to really follow-through. | 2.0% | 0.0% | -9.6% | -37.3% | + |
| 4/20/08 | our line in the sand…1396. …If that line breaks, we can risk being bullish. If it doesn’t break, we’ll look for the index to sink back to at least 1313. | 0.2% | 1.8% | -9.2% | -38.6% | – |
| 4/12/08 | A trip back down to this year’s lows around 1273. That’s not a guarantee – just likelihood. | 4.5% | 5.6% | -6.7% | -34.9% | – |
| 3/29/08 | …we’re bearish until proven bullish. | 3.8% | 4.8% | -3.0% | -38.7% | – |
| 3/9/08 | Bottom line – the VIX says we probably have more downside to go before making a good bottom. | 0.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | -41.0% | + |
| 2/24/08 | Though we’re not quite there yet, the odds for a bullish push here look good. | -2.9% | -2.2% | 1.6% | -45.1% | – |
| 2/18/08 | …the bearish arguments here are stronger than the bullish ones. | 2.4% | -3.7% | 5.7% | -42.9% | – |
| 2/10/08 | In the short run we see a little potential for an upside pop, based on the VIX. In the bigger picture, we really have to wonder if the underlying trend has changed into bear market mode. | 0.7% | -2.3% | 3.7% | -37.6% | + |
| 2/3/08 | For the time being we’ll side with the trend and get bullish. …Don’t be surprised if we see a small dip sometime in the coming week… | -3.0% | -3.4% | 1.9% | -38.7% | – |
| 1/27/08 | …the S&P 500…is well past its normal movement limits. …We only found three legitimate instance where the index worked its way this far below the 200 day line and then kept falling. …the market will correct itself. | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | -37.6% | + |
| 1/13/08 | …a ton of signs that say a bottom has been made. | -7.5% | -3.5% | -6.2% | -40.4% | – |
| 1/6/08 | …Friday was the kind of blowout that short-term bottoms are made of. …Now, if the 1407 area (or so) doesn’t hold up as support, then we need to rethink things. | 0.0% | -6.3% | -3.1% | -35.8% | – |
| 12/9/07 | We’re still more bullish than bearish here… | -4.6% | -6.3% | -12.9% | -42.4% | – |
| 12/3/07 | …we remain less than enthusiastic about the market’s upside here… | 3.0% | -1.7% | -9.9% | -42.6% | + |
| 11/18/07 | We have to assume more downside until the streak can be broken. | -0.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% | -47.5% | + |
| 11/12/07 | …the trend remains to the downside. | -0.4% | 3.3% | -6.3% | -36.7% | – |
| 10/15/07 | Profits are there, itching to be taken. All they need is a nudge. Thursday looked like that very nudge… Sometimes it takes two or three tries to get an avalanche going. | -2.7% | -4.4% | -8.6% | -38.9% | + |
| 10/8/07 | …the risk profile of buying these new highs is pretty great. If this is indeed a bullish event, …buy once any dip is over and done with. If said sip never actually turns around, then we can safely trade the other [direction]… | -0.2% | -2.1% | -8.8% | -41.4% | + |
| 10/1/07 | …the overall trends remains [sic] bullish. | 0.4% | -1.0% | -4.4% | -28.0% | – |
| 9/17/07 | So were bullish now? Not quite… | 2.8% | 4.2% | 0.8% | -18.3% | – |
| 9/9/07 | …we remain mostly bullish… | 1.7% | 7.8% | 3.8% | -14.0% | + |
| 8/26/07 | …the market will [take] a few weeks to base before the bull market really gets going again more strongly. | 1.5% | 4.0% | -1.8% | -11.3% | + |
| 8/5/07 | Don’t over-react to Friday. …If it was instead – as we suspect so far – too bad to be true, then we may finally get that bounce we’ve been expecting. | -1.0% | 0.3% | 2.8% | -13.7% | – |
| 7/28/07 | …we’re actually inclined to be bullish – in the sense that things couldn’t get any worse. | -0.4% | -2.8% | 2.7% | -14.0% | – |
| 6/2/07 | …our outlook remains sided with the trend – bullish until it’s clear we shouldn’t be. | -2.0% | -0.9% | -5.3% | -8.8% | – |
| 5/5/07 | We have to side with momentum, as frightening as that may be. Just be prepared for anything… | -0.3% | 0.6% | -5.0% | -7.9% | – |
| 4/20/07 | …patience is merited until we get that vital clue. | 0.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% | -7.0% | – |
| 4/7/07 | Now that it’s ‘reloaded’, the steam can build again. | 1.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | -5.8% | + |
| 3/17/07 | …we still don’t have a major number of reasons to think we’re actually at the bottom just yet. | 2.5% | 5.0% | 9.3% | -5.2% | – |
| 3/3/07 | A trip all the way back to the 200 day line would indeed be an 8.1% dip…if the bears keep getting traction, don’t be surprised if we actually fall a little under it… | 2.4% | 4.6% | 11.8% | -5.1% | – |
| 2/25/07 | …we do indeed expect to see a little weakness. | -5.2% | -1.4% | 4.0% | -5.6% | + |
| 2/17/07 | …the upward move near the end of last week is probably going to lead to a small move lower in the coming week… | -4.2% | -1.7% | 4.3% | -7.3% | – |
| 2/4/07 | …we’ll choose conservatively – for the time being – and guess the hot three-day move is likely to result in a dip. | -0.9% | -3.8% | 4.1% | -7.6% | + |
| 1/14/07 | …the market is indeed setting up another bullish leg. | -0.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | -6.9% | + |
| 1/6/07 | …the tide is turning in favor of the bears. | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | – |
| 12/2/06 | …our tone is turning a little more bearish… | 0.3% | 0.0% | -1.2% | 6.8% | + |
| 11/27/06 | …the S&P 500 has established a bullish channel that – as long as the support side holds – has to keep us in the bullish camp. | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 7.2% | + |
| 11/18/06 | …stick with the overall momentum until it’s clear the sellers are actually going to get some traction. | -1.0% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 0.4% | + |
| 11/12/06 | …there’s not enough reward…to justify the risk of buying in now. | 1.2% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | – |
| 10/29/06 | We’ve been talking about a breakdown for a while, and we’re now on the verge of possibly seeing one. | 0.1% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 9.6% | – |
| 10/22/06 | It’s only a question of time before the VIX bounces (sharply) at the expense of stocks. | 0.1% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 11.5% | – |
| 10/15/06 | While we’re still saying ‘we’re due’, it’s also worth keeping in mind that it could take a few days for any such dip to materialize. | 0.6% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 9.6% | – |
| 10/1/06 | In the short run, we’d say we’re set for a small dip… | 1.5% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 17.0% | – |
| 9/2/06 | We still expect to see [a correction]. But, we no longer think it’s going to be a major one. | 0.0% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 10.5% | – |
| 8/19/06 | …we’re still quite hesitant to get bullish here. | 0.3% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 14.0% | – |
| 7/23/06 | …the odds still technically favor more downside. | 1.2% | 3.0% | 8.4% | 15.7% | – |
| 7/15/06 | …a bounce is very very likely. | 2.1% | 4.1% | 10.4% | 24.3% | + |
| 7/3/06 | …we’re bullish… | -0.6% | -0.1% | 4.3% | 19.7% | – |
| 6/24/06 | …we can’t sink our teeth into the idea of going higher… | 2.4% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 20.2% | – |
| 6/17/06 | The path of least resistance is lower. | 0.8% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 21.2% | – |
| 6/10/06 | When you put all those pieces together, what you get is a bearish scenario. | 0.3% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 24.0% | – |
| 5/27/06 | We’re neutral… | 0.3% | -1.1% | 2.8% | 22.2% | + |
| 5/21/06 | The most likely short-term high point will probably be around 1289… After that, …we’re headed lower. | -0.2% | -0.8% | 3.2% | 20.1% | + |
| 5/13/06 | …we want to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. | -2.5% | -5.0% | -2.1% | 17.6% | – |
| 5/6/06 | With the ‘worst six months’ officially started, the market should start to sag… The other possibility is that we’re all set for a surprisingly bullish year that defies the odds, and the calendar. Any mid-year strength will be fueled by the Fed’s easing of interest rates. …it [is] a bit premature to make that bet… | -2.3% | -5.2% | -3.4% | 13.5% | + |
| 4/29/06 | …the SPX is poised to fall from the upper end of the range to the lower. | 1.5% | -2.7% | -2.0% | 15.4% | + |
| 4/22/06 | …expect to see a neutral-to-bearsh environment in Q2, so odds are that the support line will break before the resistance lines do. | -0.2% | -3.9% | -5.2% | 14.2% | + |
| 4/15/06 | …we’re not even going to entertain the bearish idea this time around. If anything, we have better reasons to be bullish. | 1.8% | 0.5% | -3.8% | 15.5% | + |
| 4/8/06 | …we’re actually thinking like bulls here. Just note that it might take a day or two for any rally to gain some traction. | 0.9% | 2.0% | -2.3% | 13.3% | + |
| 4/1/06 | As for how far the sell signals might carry the S&P 500 lower, the answer is, not far… | -0.1% | 0.8% | -2.1% | 11.3% | + |
| 3/25/06 | …overall, we have to remain bullish in the (much) bigger picture. | -0.3% | 0.3% | -4.4% | 9.2% | – |
| 3/11/06 | It’s just tough to start a real bullish move with a low VIX. | 1.6% | 0.2% | -2.5% | 8.0% | – |
| 2/19/06 | Let’s give things a little time here to see if the bulls have the conviction to follow through… | -0.2% | 1.7% | -1.2% | 13.0% | + |
| 2/11/06 | Slowly but surely, the bears are getting their claws into the buyer’s efforts. …we don’t expect any correction to be out of the ordinary. | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 15.3% | – |
| 2/4/06 | …we don’t expect any correction to be out of the ordinary. Watch for that close under 1259. | -0.2% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 13.7% | + |
| 1/28/06 | …any rally will be on the smaller side. | -1.6% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 12.7% | + |
| 1/21/06 | …we’re in the bearish camp this time around. | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 12.5% | – |
| 1/7/06 | …the odds favor a dip… | -0.6% | -1.9% | 0.4% | 10.9% | + |
| 12/31/05 | …a rather bearish trend. …From here, the potential for a pullback to 1180 isn’t unrealistic. | 1.6% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 11.4% | – |
| 12/24/05 | …we have doubts that there will be much follow-through in any direction… | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 12.9% | – |
| 12/17/05 | …we really can’t think about being bearish here. | -0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 12.6% | + |
| 12/10/05 | …we’re slightly bearish here… Until the S&P 500 actually breaks under 1250 or above 1263, there’s not going to be a lot of trade-worthy movement. Once the index finally does break out…, it could be huge. | 0.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 13.1% | + |
| 12/3/05 | …we could see a period of consolidation or mild bearishness over the next week or so. | -0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 11.5% | + |
| 11/27/05 | …can things continue at this white hot pace? …we think not… | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 11.4% | + |
| 11/19/05 | We anticipate this bigger bullish trend staying strong through the end of this calendar year. As of the first trading day of 2006, all bets are off… We still think January will be bullish, though, after an initial small correction. | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 11.6% | + |
| 11/12/05 | …the [S&P 500 index] chart is technically ripe for a fall… | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 13.5% | – |
| 11/4/05 | …we remain short-term bullish. | 1.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 13.6% | + |
| 10/29/05 | …we still have to lean with the bulls… | 1.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 13.3% | + |
| 10/22/05 | …we’re still leaning on the bullish side of things here… | 0.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 15.8% | + |
| 10/20/05 | …after the election, we expect things to turn strong… | 2.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | + |
| 10/8/05 | …we’re hesitant to expect any more downside pressures. | 0.2% | 2.6% | 7.5% | 14.8% | + |
| 10/2/05 | …the bulls have something to get excited about……and not just for the near-term. | -3.2% | -2.0% | 1.8% | 10.3% | – |
| 9/24/05 | …it’s almost a coin toss from here. | 0.9% | -1.6% | 4.3% | 10.1% | + |
| 9/17/05 | …the odds are still bullish. | -1.3% | -4.3% | 3.2% | 7.1% | – |
| 9/10/05 | …the S&P 500 is closest to making new highs for the year…we don’t think this is a mater of ‘if’, but a matter of ‘when’. …there’s still plenty of upside potential left. | -0.8% | -4.5% | 1.2% | 6.1% | – |
| 9/4/05 | …at this point, it’s coin toss. | -0.2% | -3.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | + |
| 8/27/05 | …this short-term bearishness could quickly turn into longer-term bearishness… | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 7.6% | – |
| 8/20/05 | …we expect stocks to move lower over the course of the next few weeks. | -0.8% | -0.9% | 1.7% | 6.1% | + |
| 8/13/05 | …we still have to side with the bears here… | -1.0% | -0.5% | -0.2% | 5.2% | + |
| 8/7/05 | In the bigger picture, we remain bullish either way, and see any dip as a chance to buy longer-term holdings. In the shorter-term, we see some bearish swing trades in the making. | -1.0% | 0.0% | -0.9% | 4.0% | – |
| 7/30/05 | …we’re hesitant to buy into the recent strength… | -1.0% | -2.2% | -4.6% | 3.6% | + |
| 7/24/05 | So for now we are best served to ride this momentum until the overbought condition truly fades, which we don’t expect to see for many months. | 0.5% | -0.9% | -4.2% | 2.8% | + |
| 7/16/05 | We really are due for a pullback… We think it will be a buying opportunity for longer-term holdings. It may also be big enough to make a quick bearish trade with | 0.5% | 0.5% | -4.1% | 2.3% | – |
| 7/9/05 | …momentum is bearish… | 0.1% | 1.0% | -2.3% | 1.9% | – |
| 7/2/05 | This years lows around 1140 are still the more likely bounce point if this pullback solidifies the way we think it will. | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 6/25/05 | For now we would expect a mild bounce…, followed by more selling pressure… | 1.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 6.9% | – |
| 6/4/05 | We’re staying neutral… | 0.3% | -0.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | + |
| 5/28/05 | …we think things will remain tame in either direction. | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 8.1% | + |
| 5/21/05 | …the market does seem intent on moving higher in the grand scheme of things. | -0.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 6.6% | – |
| 5/14/05 | Discipline dictates that we interpret these things for what they appear to be – bearish. | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 8.2% | – |
| 5/7/05 | …we’re still unconviced that this rally is anything more than part of the zig-zag motion of a bigger downtrend. | -1.1% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 10.8% | – |
| 4/30/05 | …we’re sticking with our bearish slant. | 1.4% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 12.9% | – |
| 4/23/05 | …stocks will head lower before moving higher again. | 0.0% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 12.7% | – |
| 4/16/05 | We’re bearish. …But at the same time, we expect to get something of a dead-cat bounce in the coming week…it may well be until the middle of summer before the buyers even start to get interested again. | 1.4% | 2.4% | 7.2% | 14.4% | – |
| 4/2/05 | The momentum is clearly to the downside for stocks… | 0.4% | -1.3% | 1.3% | 11.5% | + |
| 3/26/05 | The current momentum and tax season selling we’ll see early next month have bearish implications. | 0.2% | -1.9% | 2.3% | 11.0% | + |
| 3/19/05 | …don’t be shocked if we see a rebound this week. Just don’t mistake that temporary bullishness for a recovery. | -1.6% | -3.9% | 2.8% | 10.0% | – |
| 3/12/05 | …the market really could go either way. | -1.9% | -2.7% | -0.7% | 8.2% | – |
| 3/5/05 | …we clearly have to be bullish. But it will cost you very little to wait and see for sure. | -1.5% | -3.4% | -2.4% | 3.8% | – |
| 2/26/05 | …we’re optimistic about all stocks right now… | 1.8% | -1.8% | -0.5% | 7.1% | + |
| 2/12/05 | …we’re looking for…indexes to build [on] the bullish foundation… | -1.8% | -1.5% | -4.3% | 6.9% | – |
| 2/5/05 | …we’re looking for the [S&P 500 index] to at least reach 1218 with its current hot streak. Once there we’ll take a closer look for evidence of a continuation, which we see as being very likely. | 0.4% | 0.4% | -2.5% | 5.2% | – |
| 1/15/05 | …we’ll side with the trend and expect this downward move to keep carrying stocks lower. | -2.3% | 1.2% | -4.2% | 5.5% | + |
| 12/4/04 | We’re hesitantly bullish in the short-term… But in the intermediate-term, we remain very optimistic, and look to use any dip as a buying point for long-term positions. | 0.7% | -0.5% | 2.9% | 5.6% | + |
| 11/24/04 | This overbought market is still in need of a pullback, which we expect to get soon. Use that dip as a buying opportunity. | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 6.4% | – |
| 10/30/04 | Our expectation is that Tuesday’s decision – no matter the outcome – will lead to the usual year-end buying… | 3.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | + |
| 10/13/04 | …expect the net movement to remain minimal until next week. Once we get there, …our expectation is that they’ll be selling… | -0.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | – |
| 9/25/04 | …although we do foresee a pullback, we don’t expect it to last past October. | 2.9% | 0.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | – |
| 8/28/04 | …charts are bullish. | 2.0% | 1.4% | 7.6% | 11.0% | + |
| 7/31/04 | We’re looking for August to be a pretty bullish month. | -3.7% | -0.2% | 1.9% | 12.5% | – |
| 7/24/04 | …we expect stocks to just indecisively chop around. | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 14.1% | – |
| 7/17/04 | …trends are mixed. | -1.5% | -1.7% | 0.2% | 12.2% | – |
| 7/10/04 | …we think the market may give us a quick end to its recent weakness. | -1.2% | -3.2% | 1.5% | 9.8% | – |
| 6/18/04 | …we’re looking [for the] trend to be to the downside. | -0.1% | -2.3% | -1.0% | 6.9% | + |
| 5/22/04 | …our intermediate-term outlook isn’t qu[I]te as optimistic for the bulls. …the summer months will be mildly weak… | 2.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 9.3% | – |
| 5/8/04 | …we’re clearly bearish in the short-run right now… | -0.3% | 4.1% | -2.0% | 6.6% | + |
| 4/24/04 | …we’re still not fully convinced that we’re headed higher in the short-run. So, traders need to remain cautious. | -1.6% | -2.0% | -4.5% | 0.7% | + |
| 4/18/04 | …all of the indexes are essentially range-bound. | 0.0% | -3.9% | -3.1% | 2.1% | + |
| 4/10/04 | We expect the uptrend to resume its course… | -0.8% | -4.3% | -2.7% | 1.5% | – |
| 3/27/04 | …we’re still technically trending lower. We’re expecting more of the same… | 2.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 4.5% | – |
| 3/20/04 | …we have to remain bearish. | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 6.9% | – |
| 3/13/04 | …we’ll be looking for some short/bearish trades in the near future… However, …this dip is a great buying opportunity for long-term holdings. We’re still very positive on the market for 2004. | -0.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 7.8% | + |
| 3/6/04 | …the next move could indeed be a move higher. We are, after all, still within a bigger bullish trend. | -3.7% | 0.1% | -2.2% | 5.4% | – |
| 2/27/04 | Our ultimate expectation is for a mild correction. …Once that correction is complete, we do expect the bull trend to be revived. | 1.0% | -2.0% | -2.6% | 5.7% | – |
| 2/15/04 | In the short-run (next few weeks) we don’t expect to see much strength in the market… In the long-run, we think these companies will be able to prove that the earnings recovery is for real. | -1.5% | -2.9% | -5.3% | 3.8% | + |
| 2/9/04 | The bottom line is that the trend is still bullish. | 1.5% | -1.4% | -3.6% | 5.0% | + |
| 1/24/04 | …the index is going to having a tough time moving higher…we have the right ingredients for long-term gains. | -1.7% | -1.0% | -1.3% | 1.7% | – |
| 1/17/04 | …investors want to push things higher, so we’ll go with the bullish flow. | 0.5% | 0.7% | -0.3% | 2.6% | + |
| 1/10/04 | …we’re still bullish in the bigger picture, although we do expect to see the market head a little lower in the near future. | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 4.5% | – |
| 12/27/03 | …the overall progress was generally bullish. We’re expecting that trend to continue into next week… | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 9.2% | + |
| 12/20/03 | …the days surrounding Christmas and the last few days of the year are bullish, and based on current momentum we don’t expect things to be different this time around. But…caution is advised… Some [stocks] may be overvalued and due for a pullback | 1.5% | 4.4% | 0.1% | 10.2% | + |
| 12/13/03 | …the S&P 500 chart looks fantastic. | 2.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 11.8% | + |
| 12/6/03 | …the S&P 500 chart is still a bullish one. | -0.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 11.1% | + |
| 11/29/03 | …the trend is still bullish, but it’s not fiercely bullish. | -0.1% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 11.3% | + |
| 11/22/03 | We’re leaning towards the ‘due for a bounce’ camp… | 1.4% | 4.0% | 8.7% | 12.0% | + |
| 11/15/03 | …the trend is still bullish. | 0.8% | 3.1% | 10.4% | 12.1% | + |
| 11/1/03 | …we have to assume that the picture will remain bullish… | -1.1% | 0.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | – |
| 10/25/03 | Technical indicators are in agreement with the possibility of a little more downside. | 2.7% | 2.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | – |
| 10/18/03 | Our expectation is that the movement will be to the downside…this is just a warning of a correction, possibly in the range of 5% to 7%… After that correction…, we’re again going to think like bulls and take advantage of the usual fourth quarter strength. This turn-around will probably be sometime around early November. | -1.3% | -1.0% | 9.0% | 4.9% | – |
| 10/11/03 | …we’re thinking that this may be the beginning of a pullback – at least in the short-term. …We’re getting some signs now that we may see a bottom this October too. | -0.1% | 0.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | + |
| 10/4/03 | There is room for upside from current levels, and we certainly have some momentum. You may also want to keep in mind that it’s very unlikely that we’ll see losses in both September and October. | 1.1% | 1.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | + |
| 9/27/03 | Look for a little buying next week, but our ultimate expectation is that we have more downside to go in the bigger picture. We do expect to hit bottom in October, but that still gives us a few weeks of potentially bearish movement. | 2.8% | 4.0% | 8.9% | 12.4% | – |
| 9/20/03 | The momentum remains bullish… | -1.6% | 2.3% | 6.5% | 8.5% | – |
| 9/13/03 | …while stocks may be generally headed higher right now, we’re mildly bearish in the bigger scheme of things… | 0.8% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 11.2% | – |
| 9/6/03 | The trend is still technically bullish… | -1.6% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 8.9% | – |
| 8/30/03 | …the current momentum is certainly on the side of the bulls. | 0.1% | -0.4% | 3.5% | 9.0% | – |
| 8/23/03 | …momentum now favors the bears… | 2.8% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 11.5% | – |
| 8/16/03 | …we’re right on the verge of a bullish breakout, but we’re still seeing falling trend lines when looking at longer timeframes. | -0.6% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 9.9% | – |
| 8/9/03 | …we’re still bearishly biased… | 2.0% | 3.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | – |
| 8/2/03 | …most indications are still calling for a pullback. | -0.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | + |
| 7/26/03 | Although our expectation is now for a bullish surge, we’re still sticking with the idea that we’re headed lower in the bigger picture. | -1.4% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 10.6% | – |
| 7/21/03 | The trend is technically bearish… | 1.8% | 2.4% | 7.3% | 11.0% | – |
| 7/12/03 | We’re still expecting a bit more bullishness ahead, yet we’re gearing up for a downturn to begin soon. | -2.5% | -1.3% | 3.5% | 9.7% | + |
| 7/5/03 | …our expectation is a few more days of upside stemming from momentum and earnings announcements, then substantial declines for the intermediate term. | -0.1% | -3.9% | 1.6% | 10.8% | + |
| 6/28/03 | While we’re still technically above bullish trend lines, the bulls should certainly be concerned at this point. …most indications are calling for a pullback… | 3.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 15.5% | – |
| 6/22/03 | …we’re reluctantly going to continue in the direction of the trend and remain bullish. | -0.7% | 0.7% | 5.6% | 15.6% | – |
| 6/14/03 | We’re bullish since the bigger trend is technically a bullish one. | -2.9% | -1.6% | 0.8% | 12.3% | – |
| 6/8/03 | The bias is still bullish… We are expecting a pullback soon…, but until we technically start that decline, we’re going to trade with the trend… | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 16.4% | + |
| 5/31/03 | Our bias is still bullish… | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 15.5% | + |
| 5/24/03 | All in all…, the charts are bearish. | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 17.8% | – |
| 5/17/03 | The economy can only disappoint for so long until it catches up with stocks. …All the same, the current short-term trend is bullish, so we remain bullish until we have a reason not to be. | 3.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 18.3% | + |
| 5/10/03 | For a few weeks we’ve been cautioning that this bullishness was ripe for a decline. Ripe or not, an uptrend is an uptrend, so go with it ’til it turns. | -2.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 16.0% | – |
| 5/3/03 | At this point stocks are headed higher… Go with the trend… | 2.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 20.2% | + |
| 4/26/03 | …we’re pretty bearish… | 1.3% | 4.2% | 9.2% | 21.8% | – |
| 4/18/03 | We encourage you to equip yourself with methods to take advantage of…bearishness… | 2.6% | 3.1% | 11.4% | 27.8% | – |
| 4/14/03 | …any April strength will be followed by some downside… | 3.0% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 28.2% | – |
| 4/5/03 | We’re…conditionally bullish. …the intermediate picture isn’t quite as compelling…don’t be surprised if we see a pullback starting in a few weeks. | 0.6% | 5.6% | 14.1% | 29.5% | – |
| 3/29/03 | …we now know that the conflict will not be short one. Coupling that with the fact that we’re in a developing downturn does not bode well, at least in the near term. The charts are back to bearish, so we are too. | 3.7% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 33.5% | – |
| 3/21/03 | Although mildly optimistic, we’re still advising caution, both long and short term. | -3.6% | 1.7% | 11.0% | 21.8% | + |
| 3/15/03 | Sadly, we feel the final leg down is still ahead of us, and will be much more painful. Our short-term and intermediate-term outlook is still bearish. | 0.2% | 3.2% | 14.6% | 30.1% | – |
| 3/8/03 | …things don’t look so good. | 6.8% | 8.8% | 22.3% | 37.1% | – |
| 3/1/03 | …we’re on the sidelines waiting for either the bulls or the bears to make the next move. | -3.3% | 2.8% | 15.4% | 38.3% | – |
| 2/22/03 | It appears that we have broken out of January’s bearish trendlines…we are maintaining our neutral posture… | 0.3% | 5.1% | 11.9% | 37.5% | + |
| 2/15/03 | …don;t get pulled into the market by one errant day. …Patience is advised… | -1.5% | 2.7% | 10.9% | 34.4% | + |
| 2/7/03 | Just when it seemed things couldn’t get any worse, they got worse. | 0.6% | -3.5% | 10.9% | 39.5% | + |
| 2/1/03 | …we’re looking for more downside… | -2.8% | -3.5% | 8.1% | 31.2% | + |
| 1/26/03 | …we…remain bearish… | 1.5% | -2.4% | 6.1% | 33.8% | – |
| 1/18/03 | …the bears are in control. | -3.3% | -5.7% | 0.5% | 28.6% | + |
| 1/12/03 | …the bulls have control… | -4.2% | -11.6% | -6.3% | 22.2% | – |
| 1/4/03 | …simple correction of an overbought situation…will result in a “pop” in the market, at the very least in coming weeks. | -0.3% | -9.2% | -5.4% | 21.8% | – |
| 12/30/02 | …down side bias remains the prudent choice… | 5.0% | -4.0% | -3.5% | 26.1% | – |
| 12/23/02 | …it’s not the best time to be in the market, long or short, yet the biases are setting up on the short side, so we must remain moderately bearish… | -2.0% | -4.0% | -2.5% | 22.1% | + |
| 12/16/02 | …we’re bearish the markets now… | -1.4% | 0.5% | -4.8% | 19.6% | + |
| 12/9/02 | …we’re holding the line neutral… | 2.1% | 4.0% | -10.2% | 20.1% | – |
| 12/2/02 | …from a weekly perspective we’re back to neutral… | -4.6% | -2.7% | -12.0% | 14.5% | – |
| 11/24/02 | …continuing bullish biases from a weekly perspective… | -1.3% | -4.6% | -11.3% | 13.4% | – |
| 11/17/02 | …managed to hold onto their continuing bullish biases from a weekly perspective… | 3.6% | -1.0% | -6.1% | 14.8% | + |
| 11/9/02 | …continuing bullish biases from a weekly perspective… Meanwhile, from a longer-term perspective, we’ve yet to see enough strength to turn the trend higher. | 2.8% | 3.3% | -5.4% | 20.8% | + |
| 11/3/02 | …continuing bullish biases from a weekly perspective… Meanwhile, from a longer-term perspective, we’ve yet to see enough strength to turn the trend higher. | -3.5% | 1.0% | -6.6% | 16.5% | – |
| 10/27/02 | …continuing bullish biases from a short-term perspective… Meanwhile, we remain intermediate-term neutral. | 2.0% | 2.6% | -3.6% | 17.6% | + |
| 10/20/02 | …we’re short-term bullish, while awaiting further evidence to move to intermediate-term bullish. | -1.1% | -0.3% | -1.3% | 14.9% | – |
| 10/13/02 | …we moved back to short-term bullish… | 6.9% | 4.9% | 10.1% | 24.8% | + |
| 10/6/02 | The short-term bearish bias [is] confirmed… Meanwhile, the intermediate-term has been to the downside…shows [no] clear signs of turning. | 7.2% | 16.6% | 18.3% | 32.3% | – |
| 9/29/02 | …the short-term bias remains neutral to lower…, while the intermediate-term has been to the downside…and shows [no] clear signs of turning. | -3.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 25.1% | – |
| 9/22/02 | …we’re electing to generally temper our bearishness… Meanwhile, from a more intermediate-term perspective, the bias remains to the downside… | -2.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 20.3% | – |
| 9/15/02 | …the downside bias…remains… | -6.4% | -1.1% | 1.2% | 16.7% | + |
| 9/8/02 | The bias will remain to the downside… | -1.3% | -11.6% | 0.4% | 12.6% | + |
| 8/25/02 | …we remain bigger-picture bullish…, we expect these retracements, should they occur, to present favorable opportunities to add to longer-term long exposure… | -7.4% | -11.4% | -1.5% | 5.8% | – |
| 8/18/02 | …although we’re still bigger-picture bullish…, we moved back to short-term neutral… | -0.3% | -8.5% | -4.9% | 5.5% | + |
| 8/11/02 | …we [are] still bigger-picture bullish…, we’re back to short-term bullish from neutral… | 5.2% | 0.6% | -0.1% | 9.6% | + |
| 8/3/02 | Although the short-term upside bias was suspended…, the bigger-picture upside potential remains… | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 16.7% | – |
| 7/27/02 | …bullish price action then allowed us to move to bullish the market… | -7.2% | 4.0% | -1.8% | 10.2% | – |
| 7/20/02 | …we remain neutral to bearish the indices until they reclaim some key technical levels… | 9.6% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 19.7% | – |
| 7/13/02 | …we went back to bullish the market… | -10.7% | -3.7% | -12.4% | 7.0% | – |
| 6/29/02 | we’re short-term bullish | -1.6% | -5.9% | -14.6% | 1.8% | – |
| 6/21/02 | …we moved to neutral… | 0.1% | -19.4% | -14.7% | -1.4% | + |
| 6/15/02 | …all index shorts should have been exited on the penetrations of the key buy bands and bullish positions added. Once we see confirmation, we’ll seek to add more long exposure. | -4.2% | -12.6% | -14.1% | -4.0% | – |
| 5/18/02 | …we expect a retracement to be the healthiest thing for the market, which will also serve as an opportunity to add to long positions… | -1.6% | -6.6% | -14.9% | -14.7% | – |
| 5/11/02 | …we’re neutral to bearish the market, while on the lookout for a tradable bottom… | 1.6% | -5.1% | -15.4% | -11.9% | – |
| 5/4/02 | …we’re mostly neutral to bearish the market…within an overall neutral environment. | 2.1% | -0.3% | -17.9% | -12.6% | – |
| 4/20/02 | …we implemented a general neutral stance on the market, while maintaining a bearish bias… | -3.8% | -2.5% | -23.5% | -17.7% | – |
| 4/13/02 | …we are electing to maintain a “tempered” bearish bias. …although we’re not moving to neutral, reaching the key buy zones on the downside is reason enough to lock in gains in short positions. | 0.5% | -0.5% | -16.4% | -20.2% | + |
| 4/7/02 | …the chances are good that the market should fall as a result of…heightened fear creeping back into the market. …such a breakdown will only be a matter of time. | -2.0% | -6.7% | -12.1% | -23.0% | + |
| 3/30/02 | …we’re now once again at key resistance levels we removed the tempered status from the bearish perspective… | -1.9% | -6.1% | -13.6% | -23.2% | + |
| 3/23/02 | …although we continue to be comfortable with a bearish bias, …we introduce a bit of neutrality… | 0.4% | -3.4% | -12.6% | -23.3% | + |
| 3/16/02 | …our overall bias toward the markets [is] bearish… | -2.9% | -3.4% | -13.6% | -24.9% | + |
| 3/9/02 | …now the markets are likely to present favorable selling opportunities. As a result, we are moving to bearish… | -0.2% | -3.2% | -12.0% | -28.8% | + |
| 3/2/02 | …don’t get too caught up in the news headlines about a growing economy again. We expect it will remain a bumpy market environment… | 1.2% | -2.5% | -7.5% | -28.8% | + |
| 2/23/02 | …we lost our bearish bias, …while maintaining a generally neutral stance. | 4.0% | 2.6% | -1.1% | -24.5% | – |
| 2/16/02 | …we lost our bullish bias and went fully bearish… | 2.4% | 6.3% | 2.1% | -21.7% | – |
| 2/9/02 | …we’ve lost most our bearish bias and now move to bullish from within a generally neutral state… | -2.6% | 3.8% | -5.1% | -26.5% | – |
| 2/2/02 | …we are holding steady at a moderately bearish bias… | 1.6% | 6.2% | -1.9% | -23.4% | – |
| 1/26/02 | …pressure could continue on the bulls and any move back to resistance…will likely be met with sellers. | -3.4% | -2.0% | -5.0% | -25.5% | + |
| 1/19/02 | …the general outlook from our perspective remains bearish… | -1.7% | -3.4% | -1.0% | -23.0% | + |
| 1/12/02 | …we maintain our general bearishness… | -1.7% | -1.7% | -3.2% | -19.7% | + |
| 1/4/02 | …we have tempered bearishness for the OEX and a generally neutral bias the tech-centric market based on price action. | -2.3% | -7.0% | -4.2% | -22.4% | – |
| 12/28/01 | …we remain fully bearish the market… | 0.3% | -4.1% | -1.2% | -21.7% | + |
| 12/21/01 | …we remain fully bearish the market… | 0.3% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -22.3% | + |
| 12/15/01 | …we remain fully bearish the market. | 0.9% | 0.4% | 3.2% | -22.0% | – |
| 12/7/01 | …we remain fully bearish the market. | -3.0% | -0.3% | 0.9% | -21.9% | + |
| 12/1/01 | …we remain fully bearish the market. | 0.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | -19.8% | – |
| 11/24/01 | …we remain tentatively bearish the market… | -2.4% | -0.7% | -4.2% | -18.9% | + |
| 11/17/01 | …we remain tentatively bearish the market… | -0.1% | -0.1% | -4.6% | -18.9% | + |
| 11/10/01 | …we’re staying with a mostly neutral bias with a bearish tint… | 2.9% | 1.7% | -1.0% | -19.1% | – |
| 11/3/01 | …we remain predominantly bearish…with a dose of neutrality. | 1.4% | 6.1% | -1.2% | -18.2% | – |
| 10/27/01 | …we move back to a neutral…for the short term, while continuing to be on the lookout for the selling opportunity… | 2.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% | -17.9% | – |
| 10/19/01 | …we are now bearish. Having said that, we continue to maintain our bullish posture from a broader perspective. We anticipate any retracement to present another favorable buying opportunity… | 2.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | -16.5% | – |
| 10/13/01 | We now expect a short-term…retracement…we continue to maintain our bullish posture from a broader perspective. | 0.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | -19.3% | – |
| 10/6/01 | …more room to run before there is significant resistance. | 2.6% | 5.3% | 9.6% | -24.3% | + |
| 9/29/01 | …we remain bigger-picture bullish… Short-term we may see some weakness… | 2.3% | 2.0% | 11.8% | -21.1% | + |
| 9/21/01 | We continue to suspect a ferocious rally to ensue in the coming sessions as the fear unwinds itself in the form of higher equity prices. Those that are selling out now will only be buying back later at 20 to 30% higher prices. | 7.8% | 12.8% | 19.0% | -13.1% | + |
| 9/1/01 | …we move to neutral the market… | -8.3% | -6.7% | 3.0% | -21.7% | – |
| 8/25/01 | …remain cautious for now… | -3.9% | -10.8% | -3.3% | -25.4% | + |
| 8/18/01 | …we stay predominantly neutral the market while being on the lookout for a buy trigger. | 0.7% | -13.6% | -2.9% | -21.6% | – |
| 8/11/01 | We now move to tentatively bullish…perspective…still from within a generally neutral state. | -1.7% | -13.3% | -4.2% | -20.3% | – |
| 8/4/01 | …we must assume a bearish bias from within a general neutral context. | -0.8% | -5.7% | -7.1% | -23.4% | + |
| 7/28/01 | We are staying predominantly bearish the market here… | -0.3% | -3.6% | -12.0% | -27.2% | + |
| 7/21/01 | …stay neutral. | 1.1% | -2.8% | -8.9% | -23.5% | + |
| 7/14/01 | …we no[w] move to predominantly neutral the market… | -0.9% | -1.3% | -10.4% | -29.9% | + |
| 6/30/01 | …we expect a new bearish setup… | -4.5% | -1.7% | -13.5% | -25.0% | + |
| 6/9/01 | …we continue to keep a bullish tint to our view of the markets… | -3.7% | -5.9% | -13.4% | -18.7% | – |
| 5/24/01 | …we must view the market from a bullish perspective. | -2.5% | -5.8% | -9.9% | -19.5% | – |
| 5/17/01 | …we are now neutral from a weekly perspective… | 0.4% | -6.2% | -8.6% | -16.6% | + |
| 5/4/01 | …we lose our bullish outlook in favor of one of neutral to bullish. | -1.7% | 1.3% | -3.6% | -13.4% | – |
| 4/28/01 | …we continue to view the market from a bullish standpoint and look for long entries… | 1.1% | -0.1% | -3.5% | -12.9% | – |
| 4/12/01 | …expect a little retracement and consolidation from current levels before another big push higher… | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | -7.0% | – |
| 3/23/01 | …the markets look as though they may have bottomed…it certainly doesn’t appear as though it will be a straight shot, more of a backing and filling. | 1.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | -1.3% | + |
| 3/16/01 | …it’s always darkest before the dawn. As such, we continue to view the current down leg in the markets as a favorable tradable buying opportunity. | -0.9% | 3.6% | 6.0% | -1.0% | + |
| 3/2/01 | We continue to believe this to be one of the better buying opportunities we’ve seen in the markets in some time. We also expect the markets to make gains as we move into March. | -0.1% | -7.2% | 1.8% | -5.6% | – |
| 2/2/01 | …look to add to long stock positions in relative strength leaders on pullbacks. …the bottom to this perfectly normal retracement could be fast and furious. | -2.6% | -7.1% | -7.5% | -17.9% | – |
| 1/18/01 | …we could be shaping up for a retracement, or at least consolidation of the recent gains…more sideways to slightly negative action. | 0.7% | -3.4% | -8.1% | -15.9% | + |
| 12/22/00 | …the markets are at an inflection point…but the probability lies with a continuation move to the upside. | -1.7% | 3.9% | -11.7% | -10.8% | – |
| 12/15/00 | …a tradable rally in stocks should occur soon. …Right now we stay mostly in cash as it is too late in the game to be primarily short, and too early to be primarily long. | -0.5% | 2.7% | -10.8% | -12.4% | + |
| 12/8/00 | …we will likely remain stuck in a trading range environment. …the market’s bias appears to be one of higher intentions. | -4.2% | -4.1% | -13.9% | -16.6% | – |
| 12/1/00 | …we apparently need to go back and put in a test of…support before any marked move higher. | 4.2% | 2.5% | -5.6% | -13.6% | – |
| 11/17/00 | …this fall has done its part in bringing the fear levels back in favor that should, in turn, lead to a significant bottom, which will likely bring more than a 12.3% rally this time. | -1.4% | -4.5% | -6.5% | -17.5% | – |
| 11/3/00 | Think about how many bears have been impaled by the bull?s horns over the past ten, or even 18 years. [There’s] a lot of money coming into the system that must find a home. | -4.3% | -3.5% | -5.1% | -20.2% | – |
| 10/27/00 | It appears, at least for now, that the index may steadily trend upward… | 3.4% | -3.2% | -1.1% | -18.9% | – |
| 10/20/00 | …the rally has begun…buy from the panicked sellers. …expect an end to all this madness, at least for the intermediate-term and enjoy higher prices as we head into the year’s end and the next millennium. | -1.2% | -3.9% | -3.9% | -24.1% | – |
| 10/13/00 | What will likely occur…is, at the least, a tradable rally in stocks. …The signs of bottoming…are now occurring. | 1.7% | -1.7% | -4.0% | -21.1% | + |
| 10/6/00 | …be careful about being too bearish at this juncture. | -2.5% | 1.6% | -7.9% | -22.1% | – |
| 9/22/00 | …reversal off key support levels…combined with…sentiment data representing too much pessimism should work in tandem to propel the markets higher. | -0.8% | -3.7% | -12.7% | -27.4% | – |
| 9/8/00 | …the market confirmed that it would maintain its bearish bias. | -1.9% | -6.2% | -9.6% | -30.9% | + |
| 8/25/00 | …will the Dow be higher a year from now, probably so. | 1.0% | -5.3% | -12.2% | -23.8% | – |
| 8/11/00 | …expect…a downward bias. | 1.4% | 0.7% | -4.3% | -20.0% | – |
| 7/14/00 | It is unlikely that there will be any heavy selling, as those on board don’t want to miss the move to challenge the old highs at 5000… At worst we could see some consolidation… | -2.0% | -1.2% | -9.6% | -20.0% | – |
| 7/7/00 | …expect the market to make gains over the next few weeks… | 2.1% | 0.0% | -3.0% | -20.2% | – |
| 6/3/00 | …expect…choppier trading, or backing and filling this week… | -1.5% | -1.5% | 3.4% | -13.0% | – |
| 5/27/00 | …we remain bullish… Either the market averages will re-take their respective 200-days (likely), or they will break down to lower prices. At which point bargain hunters will come in… | 2.5% | 2.3% | 5.9% | -11.4% | + |
| 5/12/00 | …we remain bullish. | -1.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | -9.6% | – |
