Individual Gurus

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Bill Fleckenstein’s commentary in the “Contrarian Chronicles” at MSN Money since August 2002 (the earliest we can find). Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, manages a hedge fund based in Seattle. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Ken Fisher regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Ken Fisher is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Fisher Investments, which operates under the assumption that “supply and demand of securities are the sole determinants of securities pricing.” They believe that, to add value, “active management…must identify information not widely known or interpret widely known information differently and correctly from other market participants.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Do you have any data on Puru Saxena’s performance?” Keep Reading

A reader suggested that add Doug Fabian to Guru Grades. According to his web site, Doug Fabian “is the editor of Successful Investing, High Monthly Income and ETF Trader, and is host of the syndicated radio show, ‘Doug Fabian’s Wealth Strategies’. Taking over the reigns from his dad, Dick Fabian, back in 1992, Doug has continued to uphold the reputation of the newsletter as the #1 risk-adjusted market timer as ranked by Hulbert’s Investment Digest [sic].” He is also the author of Maverick Investing: Building Extraordinary Wealth Through Unconventional Principles and President, Fabian Wealth Strategies. Based on web searches, we find that: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Can you evaluate Doug Casey in Guru Grades?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Can you evaluate Roger Conrad in Guru Grades?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Can you look into the predictions of Martin Armstrong? He may be one of the most interesting and out-of-the-box thinkers on the markets. He supposedly predicted the 1987 crash, the Japanese crash and the top of our real estate market to the day.” Keep Reading

We evaluate here the market commentary of Jack Schannep, previously available via Zacks.com (since removed) and currently available via MarketWatch since July 2002. Jack Schannep, editor of The DowTheory.com and author of Dow Theory for the 21st Century: Technical Indicators for Improving Your Investment Results, claims that “[o]ur interpretation of The Dow Theory…and our proprietary Timing Indicator have successfully timed and beaten the stock market over many years.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As requested by a reader, we evaluate here the quarterly market commentary of Stephen Leeb since January 2003 (much of commentary archive removed in occasional site redesigns) with respect to his outlook for U.S. stocks. Stephen Leeb is president of Leeb Capital Management, Inc., editor of The Complete Investor newsletter and author of several books. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

A reader suggested that we evaluate the stock market forecasts of Jeremy Grantham, Chairman of GMO LLC. GMO LLC “is a global investment management firm committed to providing sophisticated clients with superior asset management solutions and services.” Its “client base includes endowments, pension funds, public funds, foundations and cultural institutions.” The predictions/recommendations evaluated here extend as far back as August 2000 and come from columns in MarketWatch, CNN/Money, TheStreet.com and directly from Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly letter published by GMO. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading