Individual Gurus

We evaluate here the market commentary of Tim Wood, as available via the Financial Sense archive from April 2003 through June 2010 and currently via Financial Sense. Tim Wood, who maintains the “Cycles News & Views” web site, derives his market outlook from “technical studies…based on his knowledge of both Market Cycles and Dow Theory.” He considers that “these tools are overlooked and/or forgotten today when they are most needed.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here forecasts for the overall U.S. stock market from the commentaries of Carl Swenlin since January 2006. Carl Swenlin “is a self-taught technical analyst, who has been involved in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he is president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, a premier technical analysis website specializing in stock market indicators, charting, and focused research reports.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the market commentary of Dan Sullivan since May 2002, previously available via Zacks.com during 9/02-10/05 and via MarketWatch columns from just before that period to the present (with some non-overlapping commentary from his MoneyShow.com articles). Dan Sullivan is editor of  The Chartist, which “tells you exactly when to buy and when to sell.” His general approach is to wait for the market to reveal a clear trend before committing or pulling funds. He states that: “We do not make predictions or pretend to have a crystal ball. Instead we let the market be our guide.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here Tobin Smith’s weekly “WaveWire” commentary at ChangeWave.com since May 2000. Tobin Smith is founder and editor of ChangeWave Investing and author of related books, with a presence on radio and television. ChangeWave Investing is a service of ChangeWave Research, which “provides real world, real-time data and insight into the future performance of products, companies and industries well ahead of other available sources.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We find that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the weekly market commentary of Price Headley, available via now-inaccessible archives for May 2000 through December 2010, and since presented as a “Weekly Market Outlook” via BigTrends.com. Price Headley, “was inducted into the Traders’ Hall of Fame in 2007 and is the founder of BigTrends.com, which provides investors with specific real-time stock and options strategies and investment education to profit from significant market trends.” He is “a member of the Market Technicians Association. He is also a chartered financial analyst (CFA) charterholder and a chartered market technician (CMT) charterholder.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market forecasts from the monthly commentaries of Gary D. Halbert, available since January 2002. Because these commentaries stop with May 2007, we include also market-oriented editions of his weekly commentaries since June 2007. Gary Halbert is President and CEO of ProFutures, Inc., which has a “mission of matching client needs with suitable professional money managers.” His main tool for analyzing financial markets for much of the period reviewed was research/opinion from BCA Research, which he then described as “the most accurate source for major economic trends that I have read over the last 25 years.” However, he no longer cites their forecasts. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

A reader suggested that we evaluate the market commentary of Martin Goldberg, as available via the Financial Sense archive for September 2003 through June 2010 and currently via Financial Sense. Martin Goldberg “is a Chartered Market Technician who manages money privately.” He sometimes notes that “when you identify a hot guru, it pays to follow his advice.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we expand here an evaluation of overall stock market forecasts from the commentaries of Carl Futia, available since April 2005. The main tools that Carl Futia uses to analyze financial markets are the theory of contrary opinion, his box theory and the work of George Lindsay on ‘repeating time intervals’. Patterns are the common theme uniting his interests in mathematics, markets and economics. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Bill Fleckenstein’s commentary in the “Contrarian Chronicles” at MSN Money since August 2002 (the earliest we can find). Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, manages a hedge fund based in Seattle. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Ken Fisher regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Ken Fisher is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Fisher Investments, which operates under the assumption that “supply and demand of securities are the sole determinants of securities pricing.” They believe that, to add value, “active management…must identify information not widely known or interpret widely known information differently and correctly from other market participants.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading