Individual Gurus

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Gary Shilling regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Gary Shilling is founder of A. Gary Shilling & Company, Inc., which uses a “top down” approach, “emphasizing the major themes, developed from our economic, financial, and political analysis, that will influence business and financial markets in the short and long runs. The themes are developed carefully, and we normally stick to them as they unfold, avoiding whipsawing our clients…by constant radical changes in our outlook.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the stock market commentary since late 2000 of Bernie Schaeffer, Chairman of Schaeffer’s Investment Research and Senior Editor of “Bernie Schaeffer’s Option Advisor,” via Business Week, MarketWatch.com,  TheStreet.com and SchaeffersResearch.com. According to the latter, “Mr. Schaeffer is widely recognized as an expert on equity and index options, investor sentiment and market timing.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by two readers, we review here the U.S. stock market forecasts of Steve Saville at Safe Haven since March 2003. Steve Saville is the editor of The Speculative Investor. His forecasts “are conceived by integrating the analysis of fundamental, technical, psychological, monetary and political factors…” with “…dual focuses on the stock market (primarily the technology sector) and the gold market.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the commentary of Dr. Marc Faber regarding the U.S. stock market via his archived articles at “AME Info – The ultimate Middle East business resource” during late 2000 through 2007 and via his blog since the end of 2008. Marc Faber is publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, which “highlights unusual investment opportunities around the world.” He is contrarian, holding that “many shall be restored that are now fallen and many shall fall that are now in honor.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the overall U.S. stock market forecasts from the commentaries of Clif Droke, available since late May 2003. Clif Droke uses parabolic cycles as an overlay for more specific analyses to predict market behavior, all from a contrarian perspective. He frequently gauges the “Wall of Worry.” He notes that: “Cycles should never be viewed as anything more than a rough guideline, or road map if you will, for navigating the markets…cycle theory should always be combined with a comprehensive study of market internals (i.e., technical analysis) as well as fundamental analysis, market psychology analysis, and an analysis of market liquidity.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the commentary of David Dreman at Forbes.com regarding the stock market via his archived articles since the beginning of 2001. David Dreman is chairman of Dreman Value Management. His investing philosophy is ” that the markets are not perfectly efficient and that, in particular, behavioral finance plays a considerable role in investor actions and over-reactions and subsequently in stock price movements.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Richard Russell, mostly since mid-2002. Evaluated predictions/recommendations come indirectly via MarketWatch columns, which have tracked his commentary closely in recent years. Richard Russell has since 1958 been editor-publisher of the Dow Theory Letters, which “cover the U.S. stock market, foreign markets, bonds, precious metals, commodities, economics — plus Russell’s widely-followed comments and observations and stock market philosophy.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Robert Prechter, mostly since April 2002. Evaluated predictions come indirectly via MarketWatch columns, which have tracked his commentary only occasionally in recent years. Robert Prechter is president of Elliott Wave International and has since 1979 been publishing the Elliott Wave Theorist. He is the author of multiple books related to the Elliott wave principle. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the public stock market forecasts of James Dines since the second quarter of 2002. Evaluated predictions/recommendations come indirectly via MarketWatch columns, which have reported his commentary occasionally in recent years. James Dines is editor of the The Dines Letter investing newsletter, published since 1960, which promises: “insights into investing and the economy, including timely stock, and precious-metals recommendations; economic forecasts; bull-and-bear market strategies and details that clarify today’s markets and economy…” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here forecasts for the overall stock market from the commentaries of Comstock Partners since March 2005. The Comstock partners are Charlie Minter and Marty Weiner, who analyze “economic and financial conditions from a long-term macro-economic perspective and [make] adjustments based on cyclical and shorter-term considerations” to evaluate the prospects for “various asset classes including domestic and foreign stocks, bonds, currencies and derivatives including indices and options.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading