Individual Gurus

A reader asked about Robert Drach’s “Basic Timing” Model Portfolio, initiated on 5/5/95 with the objective of demonstrating that market timing can beat the S&P 500 Index. The self-assessment of this portfolio (as of 8/19/09) reports 399 closed positions with an 89.7% win rate. The average closed position yields a 7.22% gain over 205 calendar days for an annualized return of 12.9%. The cumulative portfolio gain is 129%, compared to 93% for the S&P 500 Index. These cumulative returns “…are reflective as to capital capture and market price of current holdings… They do not include cash dividends, interest earned on cash balances, transaction costs, or anything else.” Robert Drach is publisher of the “Drach Weekly Research Report” (no web site). As explained in an article by Jon Markman, “he scales into stocks only when he believes there is a 95% likelihood of a successful result. …He focuses on buying only from a master list of 80 large stocks [with decent earnings predictability] that hasn’t changed much over the years.” Do Robert Drach’s results demonstrate market timing ability? We can address this question approximately by measuring the correlation of his cash balance (from the Cash Balance Ledger) with stock market returns. Using this cash balance data and contemporaneous S&P 500 Index data for the period 5/5/95-7/31/09 (171 months or about 14 years), we find that: Keep Reading

A reader commented and asked: “I’ve been a fan of Jim Puplava and John Loeffler’s podcast program for quite a while now, and it’s been a lighthouse in these times. Their investment advice has been just excellent for a bearish economy like this. I jumped onto your site and found they only scored 40% in the Guru Grades, but that your criteria only extends to 2007. Are they being updated on the chart anymore?” Keep Reading

We evaluate here the market commentary of Jim Puplava at Financial Sense Online for February 2002 (the earliest available) through October 2005, at which point he stopped posting regular written commentaries archive. Jim Puplava is president of of Puplava Financial Services Inc., an investment advisory and money management firm, and Puplava Securities Inc., a broker-dealer. He is also the host of Financial Sense Newshour. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Why not have Ned Davis Research or Lowry’s Research in your ranking?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “I have heard about Bert Dohmen’s research. Can you please shed any light on him and/or his research?” Keep Reading

Several readers have asked about VectorVest, such as: “Have you evaluated the VectorVest trading program?” Keep Reading

A reader noted and asked:

“I’m on an email list of many gurus these days, but the claims that Mark Skousen makes are incredible — so ‘wild’ that I’m wondering if they might actually be true?! He promises to turn $10,000 into $442,000 in seven months.”

While there are implications (such as “Every $5,000 invested could have turned into $60,000 in a just a few weeks.”), there is not enough information at MarkSkousen.com to assess realistic performance of his advice and recommendations. Some credibility checks include: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Why is Dan Murphy not on your graded list [of gurus]?. His web site, Financial Picks, touts a high percent accuracy and am curious if it is close to that at all.” Keep Reading

Alan M. Newman, Editor of Alan M. Newman’s Stock Market Crosscurrents, wrote on 8/3/09: Keep Reading

A reader requested a test of the stock market forecasts/targets at the end of the archived “Pictures of a Stock Market Mania” articles at Alan M. Newman’s Stock Market Crosscurrents, which promises ” powerful commentary and unique perspectives that cannot be found anywhere else.” Using the forecasts for the S&P 500 index from the 40 archived articles spanning 2/24/01 through 3/15/09, along with contemporaneous actual S&P 500 index data, we find that: Keep Reading