Individual Gurus

We evaluate here the market commentary of Jim Puplava at Financial Sense Online for February 2002 (the earliest available) through October 2005, at which point he stopped posting regular written commentaries archive. Jim Puplava is president of of Puplava Financial Services Inc., an investment advisory and money management firm, and Puplava Securities Inc., a broker-dealer. He is also the host of Financial Sense Newshour. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Why not have Ned Davis Research or Lowry’s Research in your ranking?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “I have heard about Bert Dohmen’s research. Can you please shed any light on him and/or his research?” Keep Reading

Several readers have asked about VectorVest, such as: “Have you evaluated the VectorVest trading program?” Keep Reading

A reader noted and asked:

“I’m on an email list of many gurus these days, but the claims that Mark Skousen makes are incredible — so ‘wild’ that I’m wondering if they might actually be true?! He promises to turn $10,000 into $442,000 in seven months.”

While there are implications (such as “Every $5,000 invested could have turned into $60,000 in a just a few weeks.”), there is not enough information at MarkSkousen.com to assess realistic performance of his advice and recommendations. Some credibility checks include: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Why is Dan Murphy not on your graded list [of gurus]?. His web site, Financial Picks, touts a high percent accuracy and am curious if it is close to that at all.” Keep Reading

Alan M. Newman, Editor of Alan M. Newman’s Stock Market Crosscurrents, wrote on 8/3/09: Keep Reading

A reader requested a test of the stock market forecasts/targets at the end of the archived “Pictures of a Stock Market Mania” articles at Alan M. Newman’s Stock Market Crosscurrents, which promises ” powerful commentary and unique perspectives that cannot be found anywhere else.” Using the forecasts for the S&P 500 index from the 40 archived articles spanning 2/24/01 through 3/15/09, along with contemporaneous actual S&P 500 index data, we find that: Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the commentaries of Robert McHugh, Ph.D., at Safe Haven since February 2004 (the earliest we can find). Robert McHugh is president of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania “dedicated to the preservation of capital in turbulent economic times, while offering conservative and aggressive investment strategies in prosperous times.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

We evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Don Hays since late 2000, shortly after he established his own investment advisory firm. Evaluated predictions/recommendations come indirectly from two sources: (1) first from MarketWatch columns as far back as early 2004; and, as subsequently suggested by reader David Zaitzeff, (2) from TheStreet.com columns covering mostly the period 2001-2004. Don Hays is president of Hays Advisory, LLC, which is “devoted to providing stock market and economic analysis, while giving you sector and stock research to help both the individual and institutional investor make decisions.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading