Individual Gurus

In his 2009 book Common Sense on Mutual Funds: Fully Updated 10th Anniversary Edition, author John Bogle has “not altered a single word of the original edition, but [has] chosen instead to update its voluminous data, and to comment on significant developments that have occurred since then…”, [trying his] “best to be candid in describing occasions when experience confirmed [his] insights of a decade ago, and when experience failed to do so…” One significant development over the past decade is the growing availability and diversity of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) as substitutes for mutual funds. Some notable reflections from the book are: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Have you seen this market timer?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Nicholas Vardy sends me offers to subscribe to his newsletter. If I am to believe his claims, he could make me rich. He is not listed among your gurus. Would you consider evaluating his track record?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Do you know of Mike Paulenoff? Have you reviewed him?” Mike Paulenoff‘s web site is MPTrader.com, “a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff’s trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon…” Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here stock market forecasts of John Buckingham, Chief Investment Officer of Al Frank Asset Management, who emphasizes careful stock selection, broad diversification and a long investing horizon. He is editor of the Prudent Speculator and author of The Buckingham Report (as much promotional as informative). The few forecasts found, starting in May 2002, come directly from The Buckingham Report and indirectly from articles at Forbes.com, MarketWatch, TheStreet.com and CNNMoney.com. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Do you have any data and/or analysis of Norman G. Fosback’s performance?” Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Have you evaluated the newsletter at KeyTurningDates.com by Stephen Campbell?” Keep Reading

Jason Kelly has occasionally requested further explanation and reconsideration regarding our evaluation of his forecasting record. His requests and our responses follow: Keep Reading

A reader asked: “Have you ever tracked Jim Shepherd’s market calls?” Keep Reading

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here commentary from Jon Markman’s past articles at MSN Money through early 2010 and from his “Speculations” column at MarketWatch.com since May 2010. Jon Markman is the founder of Markman Capital Insight LLC, which “provides unbiased, unvarnished and up-to-the-minute information, analysis and leadership on the equity and credit markets to thousands of customers worldwide.” There are many additional, older articles by Jon Markman at MSN Money, but the search capabilities there make them very difficult to extract and organize. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that: Keep Reading