We evaluate here the commentary of Dr. Marc Faber regarding the U.S. stock market via his archived articles at “AME Info – The ultimate Middle East business resource” during late 2000 through 2007 and via his blog since the end of 2008. Marc Faber is publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, which “highlights unusual investment opportunities around the world.” He is contrarian, holding that “many shall be restored that are now fallen and many shall fall that are now in honor.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- He has wide-ranging opinions on financial assets worldwide, international economics and geopolitics. He often bases his forecasts on similarity to historical situations, inferring patterns from very small samples.
- Dr. Faber is generally pessimistic regarding the economy of the U.S. and its “doomed currency, which will over time lose all its value.” He is apocalyptic in foreseeing “that the US Fed’s monetary policies will lead to exponentially widening wealth inequity and impoverish the majority of US households, which will then lead to social strife, protectionism, war, and the breakdown of the capitalistic system.“
- His commentary in AME Info is monthly. His commentary on the U.S. stock market as presented in his blog is more frequent but irregular and generally less formal. The specifics in each of his forecasts generally guide the horizon we use in evaluating the forecasts.
- Marc Faber’s forecast sample is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Marc Faber via ameinfo.com and marcfaberblog.blogspot.com | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 126-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 11/9/12 | …from a low of around 1360, we could have a rally to January, but I think sometime next year will be again lower. | 3.5% | 9.9% | 18.4% | 29.1% | 0 |
| 10/25/12 | We have peaked out recently a couple of weeks ago and we are in a downtrend. Eventually, the markets will be down 20%, but will be oversold in about 10 days’ time to two weeks’ time. So there can be a year-end rally, but certainly no new highs in the markets. | -0.2% | 6.7% | 13.1% | 24.3% | – |
| 10/22/12 | I think here we’re going to go down 20 percent from the recent top at 1,470. | -1.7% | 4.3% | 10.6% | 22.9% | – |
| 10/15/12 | I just want to have a lot of cash because within the next 6-9 months we can buy just about anything 20 percent lower. | -6.0% | 2.3% | 7.0% | 21.1% | – |
| 10/2/12 | I think we’re entering a correction time where there will be some disappointments, where stock markets can easily drop 20 percent. | -2.2% | 0.9% | 7.4% | 14.5% | – |
| 9/14/12 | It’s a temporary boost followed by a crash. | -1.7% | -3.6% | 5.6% | 16.7% | – |
| 9/5/12 | …for the next three to six-nine months, equity markets will rather go down than up and a better buying opportunity will occur at some point in this period over the next nine months. | 4.1% | 0.4% | 10.5% | 20.4% | – |
| 8/16/12 | S&P to Drop 10%, Sparking QE3 | 3.2% | -4.4% | 8.2% | 17.1% | – |
| 8/9/12 | …lows could be exceeded and I think it may be October or November – or after the U.S. election – we could essentially have a decline of around 20 percent in the market. | 1.9% | -1.8% | 8.1% | 18.4% | – |
| 8/6/12 | So I think that we may still rally somewhat into August — mid-August, end of August and then probably will have a tougher second half. In other words, September-October-November could be somewhat tougher months. | 0.7% | 1.7% | 8.5% | 21.2% | – |
| 6/8/12 | I think a global bear market has begun and we are going to go lower. | 1.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 22.7% | – |
| 5/27/12 | There are more and more stocks that are breaking down economic sensitive stocks and companies that cater to the high-end. …the economy is likely to weaken and the huge asset run is likely to come to an end with significant asset deflation. | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 22.4% | – |
| 5/16/12 | I think the markets are becoming very oversold, sentiment is now very negative and I think we are heading into an intermediate term low, and we can have a rally into June…but no new highs. | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 25.0% | – |
| 5/2/12 | If you would build an advance/decline line of all stock markets in the world, it would be in a downtrend. And I think that the markets for the next one-two months will be going lower. | -8.9% | -1.6% | 0.7% | 16.4% | + |
| 4/12/12 | I think we may easily have a correction of 10 to 20 percent here. | -2.5% | -3.3% | 3.9% | 11.1% | – |
| 3/30/12 | …I rather think that we are at the beginning of a more meaningful correction. | -0.2% | -5.6% | 2.7% | 11.0% | + |
| 3/22/12 | I am not entirely out of the stock market although I think that we may have a significant correction coming up in the next 3 months | -1.9% | -2.7% | 4.9% | 12.7% | + |
| 3/16/12 | Right now, for the next one or two months, I don’t think that stocks will go up a lot. I personally think they will correct. | -1.0% | -5.3% | 4.0% | 10.9% | + |
| 3/12/12 | Markets are overbought, technically they have deteriorated, and we have very heavy insider selling, so I think a correction is coming. …I don’t think investors should be shooting for huge gains, but rather for preservation in capital. | -0.2% | -3.3% | 4.9% | 13.2% | – |
| 3/5/12 | Markets are overbought, technically they have deteriorated, and we have very heavy insider selling, so I think a correction is coming. | 3.6% | -6.3% | 2.6% | 14.1% | – |
| 2/15/12 | I would just wait here a little bit because we don`t know how bad the correction will look like… It could be 100 points on the S&P (500 Index), it could be 200 points. | 4.5% | -0.9% | 4.5% | 11.9% | – |
| 2/2/12 | Stocks Might Disappoint After April, May | 2.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 13.9% | – |
| 12/9/11 | …U.S. equities are not terribly expensive, so relatively speaking to other assets, they may for a while actually do quite well. | 3.0% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 12.6% | + |
| 11/15/11 | I think it`s going to be very difficult for markets to make a new high above…1370. I think there is a lot of supply between this level, 1260 and 1350, so I doubt we will see new highs. But that does not mean the market cannot rally another 5 percent or so. | -3.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 10.3% | – |
| 11/4/11 | we’re in a trading range of 900 on the S&P 500 Index and 1350… I don’t think we will make a new high above the May 2nd high on the S&P 500 Index… | 0.4% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | – |
| 10/26/11 | I think that stocks may still continue to go up… | -6.7% | 6.2% | 12.7% | 13.7% | + |
| 10/4/11 | After US stocks make a new low below 1100 on the S&P 500 (SPY), there could be a year-end rally followed by a more meaningful decline into 2012. Investors should use any bounce in stocks as an opportunity to reduce their equity exposure. | 10.1% | 13.6% | 25.8% | 30.0% | 0 |
| 9/26/11 | …I think a rebound is occurring. Following this rebound, which I expect to get underway this week, there will be a longer slowdown. | 5.7% | 7.8% | 21.8% | 24.4% | 0 |
| 8/24/11 | … I think we can rally again for a while…we could rally around 1,250… | -3.5% | 1.3% | 15.8% | 19.8% | – |
| 8/18/11 | I think the market may rebound somewhat more here because we are very oversold and some technical indicators have turned positive including insider buying. But in general I think it will be extremely difficult for stocks to make a new high and after this rebound I think we will drift lower. | 5.6% | 10.3% | 19.1% | 23.9% | + |
| 8/10/11 | …we will test the July lows of last year, the S&P at 1,010. | 3.0% | 12.5% | 20.5% | 25.3% | – |
| 8/8/11 | …it’s quite likely that we may bottom out today or tomorrow and have a rally. | 7.1% | 12.7% | 20.1% | 25.3% | + |
| 8/5/11 | Stocks will be dropping 30 percent, then rallying 20 percent, and dropping another 30 percent – that’s going to be the pattern. | -2.8% | 3.2% | 12.1% | 16.9% | – |
| 8/2/11 | The bear market is starting. | -2.8% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 10.9% | – |
| 7/1/11 | The stock market is going to rally in the short-term (July-August), but equities will not surpass their previous highs reached back on May 2. After this bounce, …the market will decline sharply to around 1100 on the S&P 500 (during the September-October period). | -6.4% | -13.4% | -5.7% | 2.1% | 0 |
| 6/23/11 | “I think we’ve seen the high for the year (on the S&P 500 Index)” | 4.2% | -9.1% | -3.3% | 2.8% | – |
| 6/3/11 | Faber is still cautious on equities, believing that a more significant market correction is around the corner. | 2.9% | -6.3% | -4.1% | 1.2% | + |
| 5/31/11 | QE 2 will come to an end, we will have a correction… | -2.8% | -12.5% | -13.9% | -5.0% | + |
| 5/3/11 | The markets may be giddy about stocks hitting new highs, but contrarian investor Marc Faber is having nothing of this. He is concerned that stocks will fall sharply in May and that the recent breakout in stocks will prove to be trap for the bulls. | -3.2% | -5.1% | -5.3% | 0.9% | + |
| 3/25/11 | …it’s likely that the S&P will not be able to make a new high and then we will have a more significant setback in May, June. | 2.5% | -2.3% | -14.0% | 7.0% | 0 |
| 3/15/11 | “We may drop 10 to 15 percent.” | 2.5% | -0.8% | -9.3% | 9.5% | + |
| 2/28/11 | …the American market started to weaken, and I think that we have just begun a more significant correction in the U.S…I would probably just stay out of the U.S. | -0.6% | -0.1% | -12.7% | 3.5% | + |
| 2/21/11 | I would be a little bit careful here to just buy the US because investor sentiment is very positive. The volume has been relatively sluggish and the market is extremely overbought by any statistical model. My view is that the US market will eventually join the emerging markets on the downside… | -1.4% | 1.4% | -14.6% | 3.8% | + |
| 1/27/11 | “A correction is coming.” | 2.1% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | – |
| 1/3/11 | …a correction is imminent for the stock marke… The correction should occur in January. …you should be buying into the correction as it represents a good buying opportunity. | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 0.7% | – |
| 12/15/10 | “I have been lightning up.” | 4.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | -1.3% | – |
| 12/1/10 | Faber thinks the correction could continue as things in Europe worsen. However, he does not expect the market to fall below the 1010-1050 range on the S&P 500… | 4.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 3.2% | – |
| 11/22/10 | “I don`t think the (US stock) market will make a new high in the near term…” | 5.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | -3.0% | – |
| 11/3/10 | On equities, Dr. Marc Faber is not optimistic in the short term. He expects a selloff after the Fed announcement on Wednesday… | 2.2% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 4.6% | – |
| 10/28/10 | A correction is overdue, but I would not think that a bear market is around the corner. The correction will be a buying opportunity and then we will have a boom in stocks and in commodities like we had between the end of 1999 and March 2000 when markets went up very strongly. | 0.3% | 9.8% | 14.9% | 5.9% | 0 |
| 10/6/10 | …stocks could experience some “downside turbulence” in October and November, with a downside target of no more than 950 on the S&P on the pullback. | 5.3% | 9.5% | 14.9% | -0.4% | – |
| 9/29/10 | I would rather think that after a strong month of September, when everybody was expecting September to be a horrible month, October and November may be bad months. …we could have some kind of a sharp correction developing. | 3.4% | 9.9% | 15.3% | -1.2% | – |
| 9/8/10 | I think we maybe in a kind of a trading range whereby first we go down somewhat into October-November and then rally again towards the end of the year. | 5.4% | 11.3% | 20.3% | 5.0% | 0 |
| 8/18/10 | We’re going to have a further decline into October in the U.S. | 2.9% | 9.5% | 16.2% | 2.7% | – |
| 6/10/10 | Stocks are unlikely to revisit the lows set in March 2009. They may not go up a lot, but they will adjust to money printers at central banks. | -0.7% | 1.1% | 12.6% | 17.0% | + |
| 5/24/10 | Near term, June, July, we could rally a bit, no new highs, and then we’ll have more weakness into October and November. | 1.7% | -0.2% | 11.5% | 23.0% | – |
| 5/19/10 | It is very likely that the rally, which originated in March 2009, has come to an end and that a correction of 20 to 30 percent from the recent highs will follow. | 0.2% | -2.0% | 7.4% | 19.6% | – |
| 5/13/10 | I think we have reached an intermediate top at the end of April. …a rebound to 1180 is quite possible. Between 1180 to 1200 on the S&P, there will be a lot of resistance, so to go through it will be difficult. | -5.9% | -5.9% | 4.8% | 14.9% | + |
| 4/16/10 | …the markets will rather correct. | -4.6% | -8.0% | -1.2% | 9.5% | + |
| 3/14/10 | I would rather be lightening up on positions in the next couple of weeks than heavily buying in here. | 5.2% | -5.1% | -3.6% | 9.2% | + |
| 3/2/10 | I am not sure we will make new highs, but if we make new highs above 1150, I don`t think it will be that far above the 1150 level, maybe 1200, and thereafter we will have a bigger correction on the downside. | 4.6% | -2.6% | -4.8% | 19.0% | + |
| 2/22/10 | I would look at the market to close probably a bit lower than it started the year in 2010. Equally, I don’t think we have a huge downside risk. | 6.0% | -3.3% | -2.9% | 18.0% | – |
| 2/3/10 | In the near term, should stock markets – following a brief rebound in the first few days of February – decline into the second half of February, I would buy some stocks for a rebound. And if stocks now fail to decline and continue to rally right away I would use strength to lighten up positions. | 3.8% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 19.5% | – |
| 1/13/10 | …complacency and unanimous belief that we can still go higher now may lead right now to a more meaningful correction and then later in the year maybe we can have a rally but not to new highs. And overall we can close the year lower than we are today. | -6.1% | 5.7% | -4.4% | 12.9% | – |
| 1/8/10 | We will have some downside volatility. | -6.5% | 4.3% | -5.9% | 11.3% | + |
| 12/29/09 | It will be more difficult to make money in 2010 as the markets become more volatile. I think 2010 will be more of a year when not to lose any money will be very important. | -4.6% | 4.2% | -7.5% | 11.7% | – |
| 11/4/09 | I would be careful to buy equities now as we are in a correction period. It could be a more serious correction then it’s perceived generally. | 5.7% | 1.6% | 7.8% | 16.9% | – |
| 9/25/09 | Stocks may have already peaked for this year and might drop 20 percent amid renewed deflation fears… | 2.2% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | – |
| 9/4/09 | …in the next 10 days, 2 weeks, we will have big moves in the markets…equity markets would correct and possibly quite meaningfully. | 3.8% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 8.6% | – |
| 8/12/09 | …expect for the next couple of months…a correction time in asset markets. | 3.7% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | – |
| 7/17/09 | What I’m telling clients? …take a holiday essentially. Because I think the gravy is out. …The S&P 500 index might go as high as 970 or even 1020 but then it will turn down again. | 4.2% | 16.1% | 22.1% | 13.7% | – |
| 6/28/09 | Maybe we will have for two or three months now a reversal in expectations, where people suddenly realize that maybe the economy doesn’t recover a lot and that deflationary pressures are still there. But if the S&P was to come down to 800 or 750, the Fed would probably increase its money printing activity. So, I kind of doubt that we’ll see new lows. | 5.2% | 12.6% | 21.5% | 10.8% | – |
| 6/9/09 | This is a high risk entry point for equities. | -6.3% | 7.8% | 17.4% | 15.8% | + |
| 5/25/09 | I expect a correction to unfold. | -1.0% | 12.7% | 20.3% | 21.2% | – |
| 5/18/09 | …stocks are not likely to collapse… But very high volatility and price fluctuations that don’t appear to make any sense will be the new dominant characteristic of the market. | 0.1% | 10.4% | 19.5% | 17.8% | – |
| 5/7/09 | …Faber…concedes that perhaps, just perhaps, the S&P 500 has bottomed out and things may improve from here. | 3.5% | 10.5% | 15.2% | 27.4% | + |
| 4/18/09 | The market very near term has become somewhat overbought, and the correction should essentially follow, but I doubt it will…make new lows in the intermediate future. The lows in early March…will hold, and we’ll have another push up into July. | 9.1% | 13.0% | 31.7% | 45.2% | 0 |
| 4/13/09 | The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rise 17 percent to 1,000 in the next three months… The S&P may decline to about 750 and probably rebound after July. | 5.8% | 2.4% | 24.1% | 41.1% | 0 |
| 4/7/09 | After this rally we need some kind of correction, maybe around 5 to 10% and after that we can probably rally more into July. | 11.3% | 8.0% | 27.6% | 46.7% | 0 |
| 4/1/09 | …Faber doesn’t expect any full stock market recovery within the next two years – and doesn’t feel we’ve yet seen the final low in the current bear market – he predicts some “further headway” before…summer. In the very near term, the stock market has become overbought and should correct…volatility is likely to remain high and market swings of 20% or more within a month or two will recur with high frequency… | 8.2% | 13.3% | 30.8% | 46.6% | – |
| 3/22/09 | …we may still have a rally (in the S&P) until about the end of April and probably then a total collapse in the second half of the year… | 2.5% | 11.9% | 29.8% | 41.7% | 0 |
| 3/9/09 | Government spending will spur gains in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index… | 20.5% | 39.0% | 48.3% | 70.0% | + |
| 2/27/09 | “A countertrend rally could occur soon where stocks would suddenly rise quite substantially.” | 7.1% | 23.4% | 39.9% | 52.2% | + |
| 2/18/09 | “…interest-rate cuts may cause a short-term jump for stocks. But in the second half of the year, stocks will likely dive again because of the slowdown.” | -0.6% | 15.4% | 24.3% | 40.5% | – |
| 1/19/09 | S&P 500…might rally some more in the next couple of months. Second Half of 2009 may be even worse than the first half…stocks may be under pressure… At 800-850 the S&P 500 is not unexpensive. | -3.3% | 3.4% | 18.1% | 35.6% | – |
| 12/30/08 | …2009 will be a better year. “…the S&P 500 will recover to around 1,100-1,200.” | -7.3% | -10.4% | 3.2% | 27.2% | + |
| 12/28/08 | “Markets may rebound somewhat more. I would look at it as a trading opportunity.” | -2.8% | -9.4% | 6.6% | 28.3% | + |
| 12/11/07 | The rebound is likely to last until around the turn of the year whereby new highs will most likely not be achieved. Thereafter, stocks should resume their downtrend…use further strength in equity markets as a selling opportunity (for the S&P selling is recommended on a rebound to around 1500). | -5.2% | -11.4% | -9.6% | -40.5% | + |
| 10/9/07 | …money printing will work for some assets (precious metals and commodities in general) but not for others (housing, US equities measured in gold terms) and not for the economy. | -5.7% | -11.2% | -13.5% | -42.5% | + |
| 9/10/07 | …the best course of action may be to only take small positions and to be patiently awaiting better entry points both on the long and the short side. | 7.8% | 3.8% | -12.3% | -14.0% | – |
| 8/7/07 | Market turbulence is far from done! | 0.1% | 2.2% | -9.5% | -12.2% | + |
| 6/9/07 | …lighten up on positions in asset markets, which are extremely extended and where the risks seem to outweigh the returns. …some short positions could be initiated. …consider shorting some index futures or to purchase of some ETFs, which move inversely to the stock indices… | 0.6% | -3.7% | -0.1% | -11.2% | + |
| 5/7/07 | …use the current strength in equity markets around the world, which has left them in an extremely overbought position, as an opportunity to sell and certainly not to increase positions. | 0.6% | -5.0% | 0.0% | -7.9% | + |
| 4/11/07 | …financial markets to – at best – hold around the current level, but more likely to enter a more meaningful decline than we had at any time since the asset markets began to rally in March 2003. There is some seasonal strength between the end of March and the end of April and, therefore, stock markets around the world may hold or even rebound modestly, but we would use rallies as selling opportunities. | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.9% | -7.7% | – |
| 3/15/07 | With very few exceptions, equity markets are over-bought, fully valued and vulnerable to some disappointments. | 5.5% | 8.9% | 5.7% | -4.4% | – |
| 2/11/07 | …the risks of a correction in asset markets occurring now or very soon have increased considerably. In fact, it is very likely that sometime in 2007 most assets can be bought at lower prices than they are selling for today. | -3.2% | 4.9% | 1.4% | -5.9% | + |
| 12/14/06 | Stock markets may shortly top out amidst rapid group rotation… | 0.1% | -1.6% | 7.4% | 1.9% | – |
| 11/23/06 | …whereas…stock markets could still make a new high into early next year, the majority of equities may already have peaked out. …I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. | 1.1% | -0.1% | 8.4% | 4.9% | – |
| 10/16/06 | …I would certainly not rule out a more meaningful downside correction starting soon, or even a nice little crash. …postpone any new buying or implement some selling. A better buying opportunity is likely to present itself at the end of October or in November. | 1.8% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 9.6% | – |
| 9/14/06 | …my concern for the entire market is that when the Fed announces its first interest rate cut, the stock and bond market and the dollar will tank…a nice crash should not entirely be ruled out. | 3.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 16.2% | – |
| 8/23/06 | The upside potential for equities appears to be very limited… There is much resistance for the S&P 500 between 1290 and 1320 and technical conditions are not supportive of a strong and sustainable rally. | 2.1% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 10.8% | – |
| 7/16/06 | Equities may rally somewhat from…deeply oversold levels in the very near future…use any additional strength as a selling opportunity, as the upside would seem to be very limited as substantial resistance resides on the S&P 500 at between 1290 and 1325. | 4.1% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 24.3% | – |
| 6/13/06 | …in most stock markets there is now huge overhead resistance, which will contain any significant advance and make it extremely difficult if not impossible for stock and also commodity markets to reach new highs for the next six months or so. For the S&P 500, the overhead resistance resides between 1295 and 1330. …the US economy will shortly badly disappoint. | 1.5% | 6.2% | 15.2% | 25.1% | – |
| 5/15/06 | …when asset markets will finally correct, which I expect to happen shortly, all asset markets could sell-off at the same time… | -5.0% | -2.1% | 6.5% | 17.6% | + |
| 4/16/06 | …be extremely defensive. Most asset markets including stocks and commodities are extremely overbought, and there is far too much speculation in all investment markets. Therefore, severe downside volatility, also in precious metals, should not be surprising in the period directly ahead. | 0.5% | -3.8% | 6.0% | 15.5% | + |
| 3/23/06 | …holding cash is now not such a bad alternative…expect to be able to buy most assets at lower prices within the next three to six months. | 0.5% | -3.8% | 1.8% | 8.9% | + |
| 2/21/06 | …we have all the ingredients for a stock market correction in the US getting underway very shortly. …we shall, eventually, be able to buy one Dow Jones Industrial Average with between just one and five ounces of gold. | 1.7% | -1.2% | 1.5% | 13.0% | – |
| 1/16/06 | I expect a correction to unfold in the second half of January, which will last at the very least into February. …emphasize high quality large market capitalization stocks…we are in the midst of a real investment rage, which in my opinion cannot offer to the contrarian investor particularly attractive entry points in asset markets. Maybe a good time to short assets! | -0.2% | 0.2% | -3.8% | 10.9% | – |
| 12/15/05 | …rather than to buy US stocks,…invest in gold…right now, both the Dow and gold, as well as most other investment markets are significantly over-bought and could easily correct by about 5% to 10% on the downside. | 0.5% | 2.9% | -1.5% | 12.2% | – |
| 10/10/05 | …the forthcoming recession will be characterized by consumer price inflation and simultaneous economic weakness. …when consumer price inflation accelerates it leads to poorly performing financial assets… | 2.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 14.8% | – |
| 9/13/05 | …we may be at lifetime selling opportunities for financial assets and real estate, though not necessarily in Asia. …invest when everything looks horrible and when nobody can see how fundamentals could improve, while selling is advisable when the sun is out and everything looks rosy. …Today, on the other hand, it seems as if investors had thrown any caution into the wind. | -4.3% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | – |
| 7/23/05 | …buy a post office scale. When all the reports on a stock or sector are light, it means ‘buy’. Conversely, when weekly the reports you receive on an industry add to several kilos then ‘sell’! So, after all, brokerage research does have a very useful function but not through its content but weight. …The US stock market has…little upside potential. …within the next twelve month[s] volatility will soar. Hence, buy the VIX Index. | -0.9% | -4.2% | 8.7% | 2.8% | + |
| 6/25/05 | …while new 2005 highs should be possible, the upside potential seems rather limited. Furthermore, I would expect any stock market strength lasting possibly into August to give way to renewed weakness in September and October. | 3.9% | 2.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | – |
| 5/14/05 | …a better shorting opportunity has now arisen and…stock markets will again weaken in the second half of May and in June. …new 2005 highs will be very difficult to achieve….use any strength to liquidate stock positions around the world. | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.2% | – |
| 4/9/05 | [Use] strength to reduce positions and to initiate some short sales. | -1.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 9.1% | + |
| 3/17/05 | …the high risks in…US stocks and other extended asset markets (real estate in the US, and industrial commodities)…hardly justify the very limited near term upside potential that might still exist… | -3.7% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 9.0% | + |
| 2/12/05 | …the best option for investors might be to maintain low leverage, small positions and bet on some further recovery in the US dollar… | -1.5% | -4.3% | 2.0% | 6.9% | + |
| 1/10/05 | US equities…had a very bad start in the new year…it is a bad omen for the rest of the year. …I would stay aside from equities, commodities (including gold and silver), and bonds and only hold the US dollar, which may have more of a rebound potential than is generally expected. | 0.1% | -0.8% | 2.5% | 8.0% | + |
| 12/8/04 | …stock markets around the world have become significantly overbought…either a top is already in place or about to occur within days, which should be followed by a correction of around 5% at the very least and lasting into mid December. …we should then get a year end rally into January… This should then lead to a more pronounced downturn into February. …we may already be at or very close to a major top. | 0.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 6.5% | – |
| 11/8/04 | …stocks around the world could rally for another month or so, while bond prices continue to retreat. …gold and silver will significantly out-perform the fully valued S&P 500…gold is also relatively inexpensive compared to the price of oil! | 1.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 4.8% | + |
| 9/13/04 | I still regard the upside potential for the US stock market to be limited and would sell strength rather than buy weakness. | -0.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 9.0% | – |
| 9/2/04 | …near term odds do not particularly favor to be heavily short the stock markets. | 1.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | + |
| 8/1/04 | …it is possible that the high short positions will this time not necessarily trigger a strong rally. …High tech industry fundamentals remain poor and, therefore, we would use any strength as a selling opportunity. | -0.2% | 1.9% | 5.9% | 12.5% | – |
| 7/14/04 | …a sustainable healthy recovery is unlikely to shape our future. | -4.3% | 1.2% | 7.1% | 10.5% | – |
| 6/13/04 | …use the current rebound in share prices around the world as a selling opportunity. | -1.2% | -0.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | + |
| 6/2/04 | It is a time to stay of out of all assets and be patiently waiting for better buying opportunities. | 0.0% | -1.8% | 4.3% | 6.4% | + |
| 4/12/04 | …since all asset classes including commodities, bonds, stocks and real estate rose in price in 2003, it is conceivable that everything will decline in 2004! … the long term fundamentals of commodities, particularly of oil, are by far more compelling than the ones of US equities… | -4.3% | -2.7% | -1.8% | 1.5% | + |
| 3/3/04 | …the equity markets may be forming a more significant top between now and April, which may not easily be exceeded for quite some time. | -1.6% | -2.6% | -3.9% | 6.5% | + |
| 2/7/04 | Time for a contrarian to take the other side of the trade – that is, go long on the US dollar and short the US stock market? | -1.4% | -3.6% | -5.3% | 5.0% | + |
| 1/3/04 | …the present ‘strong’ recovery phase in the US economy won’t last for long, as it is totally artificial. …US equities offer limited up-side potential but entail, in my opinion, high risk and should best be avoided. | 0.4% | 1.7% | -0.3% | 5.9% | + |
| 12/5/03 | …for the next month or so…liquidate US equities, and…go long on the US dollar and bonds. | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 12.0% | – |
| 11/4/03 | …the US stock market looks increasingly vulnerable. | 1.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 10.6% | – |
| 10/1/03 | I like Asian assets including real estate and equities and I remain of the view that investors should avoid the US. Thus, you might consider hedging your Asian bets by shorting the US! | 2.8% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 11.4% | – |
| 9/1/03 | …risks in US financial assets remain high and that the US dollar, US bonds, and US equities are vulnerable to a large number of potential negative factors, which could disappoint investors, if not in the second half of this year, then in 2004. …commodities including gold, silver as well as industrial commodities are the place to be. | -0.4% | 3.5% | 12.6% | 9.0% | – |
| 7/2/03 | In the kind of reflation scenario we are discussing, stocks will rise in nominal terms… But in real terms, they are likely to decline, as the coming additional US dollar depreciation (mostly against hard assets including real estate, collectibles, commodities, especially precious metals) will offset the nominal stock market gains. | -1.4% | 0.2% | 11.9% | 12.5% | – |
| 6/2/03 | …while…the current rally in US stocks may last for another few weeks, a serious setback should be expected in the second half of the year once it becomes more obvious that US corporate profits will continue to disappoint and once interest rates reverse their decline and start to rise. | 1.6% | 3.7% | 9.4% | 15.5% | – |
| 4/14/03 | …the stock market rally, which began in mid March, may have some more life in the next few days… | 6.1% | 13.4% | 18.1% | 28.2% | – |
| 3/10/03 | …the poor performance of the US stock market over the last three years should – sharp bear market rallies aside – continue for quite some time. | 8.8% | 22.3% | 27.8% | 37.1% | – |
| 2/9/03 | …after a brief technical rally, more dollar weakness should be expected in 2003, as the US economy continues to disappoint. | -3.8% | 11.7% | 17.3% | 37.8% | – |
| 1/12/03 | I would look at selling US equities during the present rallying phase, and avoid the US dollar and US treasury bonds. In my opinion, the euro and gold will continue to outperform US equities, as they have already done so over the last 18 months. | -11.6% | -6.3% | 8.0% | 22.2% | + |
| 12/4/02 | …the present stock market rally in the US will shortly run out of steam – possibly between now and January of 2003 and thereafter, we will likely move into a trading range and eventually make new lows… | 1.2% | -10.4% | 7.6% | 16.5% | – |
| 11/5/02 | …the present rally is unlikely to be the beginning of a new bull market, but rather a treacherous bear market rally, which will be followed by renewed weakness in 2003. …imbalances of the US economy will eventually have to be corrected during a more serious recession than what we have so far experienced… | -1.0% | -7.8% | 0.5% | 15.1% | – |
| 10/9/02 | …I would…wait for some even more extreme oversold positions. Moreover, I very much doubt that if the US market rallied right away that this we would be the ultimate low of this bear market. More work on the downside is likely to take place once the consumer and homebuyer finally capitulates. | 16.2% | 17.1% | 12.2% | 34.6% | – |
| 9/4/02 | …further downside for the major averages ought to be expected – at least to the 1995 level and possibly down to the 1990 level, or even lower if Prechter has correctly interpreted the Wave Principle (according to him the Dow will decline from quintuple digits to triple digits – that is below 1000). | -8.3% | 4.6% | -8.0% | 15.5% | – |
| 8/6/02 | The markets are likely to become rather unpredictable in the short term and even more volatile than they have been in the past few years. | 2.3% | 4.8% | -1.9% | 13.7% | + |
| 7/8/02 | …a sharp market rally aside in the near future, the very best we might expect from US equities is a trading range for the S&P 500 from about 950 to 1200. | -12.0% | -16.2% | -4.9% | 1.2% | + |
| 6/13/02 | Whereas we have seen that a major investment theme, which is accepted by the majority of investors leads inevitably to an over-valuation of the ‘theme sector’ and an under-valuation elsewhere in the investment universe, the timing of the water leaking from the popular and expensive sector into the neglected sector of the investment universe is difficult if not impossible to predict. …the next investment theme is…commodities including gold and silver, basic industries, emerging markets and real estate in emerging markets. | -9.1% | -9.9% | -10.4% | 0.2% | + |
| 4/22/02 | …the US empire is already past its peak…avoid for now US financial assets and… | -2.5% | -23.5% | -20.2% | -17.7% | + |
| 3/4/02 | I continue to recommend selling US equities in the present rally, which might extend into April. …buy Asian stocks | -2.5% | -7.5% | -20.6% | -28.8% | + |
| 2/4/02 | …take long positions in depressed Asian stocks and hedge this exposure by shorting the US stock market whose valuation is still far too high. | 6.2% | -1.9% | -23.7% | -23.4% | + |
| 1/10/02 | US equities have…little upside potential and…significant downside risk. …from here on the down trend will resume. | -3.9% | -4.6% | -20.3% | -19.4% | + |
| 12/5/01 | …we remain basically negative about US equities because we doubt that much of an earnings recovery lies around the corner. | -0.5% | -1.1% | -12.2% | -23.8% | + |
| 11/6/01 | …the US stock market…is still richly priced. …the now inexpensively priced Asian markets may offer the best up-side potential. | 4.3% | -3.2% | -4.1% | -20.0% | + |
| 10/6/01 | A bear market rally…is…now underway, but I very much doubt that we are at the beginning of a new bull phase… Thus, any strength in the market should be used as an opportunity to raise cash. | 5.3% | 9.6% | 6.4% | -24.3% | + |
| 9/6/01 | High tech and communication stocks have collapsed already. So any improvement in sentiment toward high tech…could lead to a strong bear market rally for depressed stocks like Ericsson and Lucent. …financial stocks…are looking increasingly weak. …avoid consumer finance companies, S&Ls, and sub-prime lenders… | -0.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | -19.5% | – |
| 7/28/01 | …US financial analysts and investors are still far too optimistic about future earnings growth and likely to be repeatedly disappointed. As a result we maintain our cautious or rather negative view about US financial assets. | -3.6% | -12.0% | -9.1% | -27.2% | + |
| 6/7/01 | I find it hard to find valuation jewels given the systematic risks in the financial markets. | -6.1% | -11.4% | -11.0% | -18.9% | + |
| 5/5/01 | …we need to go significantly lower in the US before reaching…a compelling combination of low risk and high returns. Valuations are still very high and investors are still far too optimistic about future earnings growth and about the market’s recovery potential…. Bonds could simply move sideward or down somewhat, while equities continue to sell off. | 0.5% | -3.9% | -11.5% | -13.6% | + |
| 4/4/01 | …the US is likely to continue to suffer from a profit deflation and badly disappoint investors who are still far too optimistic about future corporate earnings’ growth… shift…exposure…from the US multinationals to local companies in emerging markets. | 14.8% | 11.9% | -4.2% | -0.1% | – |
| 3/4/01 | …the first few months of this year may look somewhat better than expected, but…the second half will reveal weakness across almost all sectors of the economy. Deflationary forces are very powerful at this point and could lead to several years of disappointing corporate profits. | -10.9% | 1.6% | -8.7% | -7.0% | + |
| 1/6/01 | …declining US corporate profits, collapsing consumer confidence and a sobering up of investors should lead to further sharp declines for stocks. In particular, I expect the NASDAQ, which still sells for 100 times earnings, to fall by another 50% or so from the current level. | 3.5% | -12.9% | -8.8% | -13.0% | + |
| 12/5/00 | …my target remains for the NASDAQ to eventually bottom out at below 1,000, the S&P 500 around 700 and the Dow at 6,000. | -5.7% | -8.3% | -7.2% | -18.7% | + |
| 11/5/00 | …the great US bull market ended earlier this year…we shall see, over the next two years, far lower stock prices, as earnings will badly disappoint and as a recession will unfold. Therefore, investors should…sell US equities on any rallies, as weakness in high tech stocks will spread in time to all sectors. | -5.6% | -5.6% | -12.3% | -20.3% | + |
| 10/19/00 | …there is the possibility that the NASDAQ could fall from its March high of 5,000 by more than 70%. | -1.5% | -3.3% | -11.8% | -22.4% | + |
