We evaluate here the Forbes.com commentary of Ken Fisher regarding the broad U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2000. Ken Fisher is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Fisher Investments, which operates under the assumption that “supply and demand of securities are the sole determinants of securities pricing.” They believe that, to add value, “active management…must identify information not widely known or interpret widely known information differently and correctly from other market participants.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Ken Fisher is generally flexible in his assessment of market value, keying off potential demand for stocks, globalization and the consensus expert view, which he sees as generally inaccurate. He has been largely clear with his guidance.
- Ken Fisher correctly counseled readers to stay away from stocks from the beginning of 2001 through mid-2002, but was a bit too soon into the market in early July 2002. He was right about general market direction, but overly overoptimistic, for 2004-2007. During late 2007 through early 2009, he was dramatically over-optimistic. For the balance of 2009 and most of 2010, he was correctly bullish. For 2011, he was correctly neutral.
- Ken Fisher’s forecast sample is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
Note that we use the Forbes.com magazine publication dates for the table entries, and they post-date their issues, meaning that Mr. Fisher actually prepares columns at least two weeks before the publication/entry date. This approach treats new forecasts the same way as those pulled from magazine archives.
See Mr. Fisher’s article “Forecasting (Macro and Micro) and Future Concepts” for his own thoughts on forecasting. See also “Forbes Evaluates Ken Fisher’s Stock Picking” for an assessment of Ken Fisher’s public stock picking since 1998.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Ken Fisher via Forbes.com | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 126-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 9/24/12 | …the bull market is midway through its long run. …Skepticism remains thick, and we’re far from seeing optimism or euphoria. Hence, more bull ahead. | -3.0% | -2.1% | 7.3% | 15.4% | + |
| 7/16/12 | Don’t let the seemingly futile gyrations in Europe keep you out of the market this summer. | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 25.3% | + |
| 5/29/12 | My forecast is for global stocks to end 2012 up big. | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 22.4% | + |
| 5/7/12 | In no way am I predicting another raging bull market like the 1990s’. Don’t mortgage your house to buy stocks. However, remember few saw how optimal the environment really was back then. I think times are similar, and it’s a good time to buy, selectively. | -4.0% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 19.3% | + |
| 2/27/12 | We will soon begin the fourth year of this bull market. According to my research, fourth years have averaged 20% returns and sometimes have been much bigger. So it is best to think of the directionless daze the market suffered in 2011 as the pause that refreshes before the bull resumes. | 3.3% | -3.4% | 2.5% | 11.5% | + |
| 1/16/12 | …the best strategy is to buy good stocks now that were impaled by 2011’s head-fake to hysteria. This year will be beautiful. Give naysayers the finger. | 3.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 15.4% | + |
| 10/28/11 | That so many positive factors exist is bullish. That they are so little talked about is even more bullish. That gap between too-dour sentiment and better-than-realized reality is a powerful positive factor for stocks through yearend and well into 2012. | -7.0% | 2.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% | + |
| 10/24/11 | Be Bullish Even If Obama Wins: Presidential elections are good for stocks. …when we reelect a Democrat, the total return averages 14.8% and when we elect a new Republican the total return averages 18.8%. Either way investors win. | -5.3% | 4.8% | 9.4% | 12.7% | + |
| 9/26/11 | I expect 2011 will wind up a pretty fair year for stocks despite the fact that the S&P 500 is down 4% as I write this column. | 5.7% | 7.8% | 21.8% | 24.4% | 0 |
| 8/22/11 | …now is the time to focus on finding good stocks and making money rather than avoiding risk. | 3.8% | 8.2% | 21.2% | 24.8% | + |
| 7/18/11 | It feels like there are ghosts around every corner. …As I said on Mar. 14, a bull market’s third year is usually modest. It is the ideal time for my morphing fear phenomenon to finally peak before greed overtakes fear to lead the bull market into its last euphoric phase. I’m not afraid of ghosts, and you shouldn’t be, either. | -8.6% | -7.8% | -1.3% | 5.4% | – |
| 3/14/11 | …stocks are cheap. And when two up years have followed a big bear-market bottom we’ve never had a disaster third year–ever. So don’t bet on it. …I’m somewhat neutral on the market… | 1.4% | -2.0% | -11.0% | 8.2% | + |
| 2/14/11 | This year will frustrate bulls and bears alike–without a big directional trend. …In 2011 I expect the market to go sideways. | -5.7% | 0.4% | -11.5% | 1.9% | + |
| 1/17/11 | …a serious case of false fears. It’s bullish music to my ears. | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | + |
| 12/20/10 | Look forward to the gridlock of the coming year, because little gets accomplished. If you hate politicians as much as I do you’ll find this quiet marvelous. Markets do! | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% | – |
| 11/22/10 | Supporting most bears right now is a bunch of bull: namely, the notion that too much debt will bite us in the butt. Since last fall the guts underlying gloom-and-doom market forecasts have been disproven one by one. Excessive debt is the main argument the bears still hug. Which is one reason the bull market has a long way to run… | 5.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | -3.0% | + |
| 10/25/10 | I still believe there is a strong bull market ahead… | -0.4% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 4.8% | + |
| 9/13/10 | Why do so many fear something that has pretty much never happened? Because we always do that early in a big bull market after a huge bear market. At some later point false fears are seen as that. At that point the rebound will resume. …Get ready for this bull market’s second leg. | 4.3% | 9.9% | 16.3% | 6.0% | + |
| 6/7/10 | Panics pass. This one will, too. Stop thinking about short-term market jitters and more about long-term investing. | 0.9% | 3.8% | 16.3% | 21.8% | + |
| 5/10/10 | …I’m bullish…there are many reasons to expect a good return on stocks in 2010. | -9.0% | -3.3% | 5.3% | 15.7% | + |
| 4/12/10 | …I remain firmly bullish. …Snarky, cranky sentiment and better fundamentals are the classic ingredients of the second phase of bull markets. | -3.4% | -9.9% | -3.2% | 9.8% | – |
| 3/15/10 | The global expansion that began last spring…is building steam everywhere. The things now causing great fear…are just speed bumps… we now can reasonably expect several good stock market years. The volatility along the way creates additional buying opportunities. | 5.2% | -5.1% | -3.6% | 9.2% | + |
| 1/18/10 | …2010 will work out the way markets usually do in the second year after a big bear market, with returns not as high as 2009’s but well above average. | -3.8% | 4.1% | -6.9% | 11.3% | + |
| 12/14/09 | …stocks (globally) are still very cheap by historical standards. They are also cheap compared with bonds. Be bullish. | 3.1% | 4.1% | 0.1% | 11.6% | + |
| 11/2/09 | If history repeats, the current V recovery is far from over. Expect another 20%-to-25% gain by January. …we’re getting a big, long bull run. Stay with it… | 6.4% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 17.1% | 0 |
| 8/24/09 | …stocks are dirt cheap, as measured by the degree to which prospective earnings yields exceed long-term interest rates globally. Stocks are also low in relation to commodity prices. | 3.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 2.1% | + |
| 6/22/09 | …Wall Street marks down stocks before a Democrat is elected–and is pleasantly surprised afterward. …I’m optimistic… | 6.8% | 19.6% | 22.7% | 20.2% | + |
| 5/25/09 | Think about buying stocks now that you will want to own in 2012… | -1.0% | 14.8% | 20.3% | 21.2% | + |
| 4/27/09 | Look up and out. This huge bear market has presented huge opportunities. Beyond simple cheapness, we’re on the cusp of the biggest global monetary and fiscal stimulus relative to the world’s GDP in history. There is a wall of money coming. And then a boom! | 4.1% | 14.2% | 27.5% | 40.7% | + |
| 2/16/09 | I like stocks for 2009 precisely because they did so badly in 2008. …When the market rebounds, a lot of its gains will take place in a very short span (like two months or less), and people who are too cautious will miss most of these gains. | 0.7% | 11.9% | 27.2% | 40.5% | + |
| 1/12/09 | …you can expect the stock market to resume its recovery… | -4.2% | -1.3% | 3.5% | 32.0% | + |
| 12/22/08 | …I’m even more bullish now. Stocks are an even better buy. …These times will pass. Because stocks are so cheap, a big bull market will emerge. I don’t know when. | -4.6% | -7.5% | 2.7% | 29.2% | + |
| 11/24/08 | Sometime soon, and maybe now, we will have the definitive end of the 2008 crash. | 1.9% | -10.2% | 4.8% | 28.1% | + |
| 10/27/08 | Unless you are in your late 80s…, stocks are cheaper, adjusted for tax rates and interest rates, than they’ve been at any time in your adult life. That’s a simply stunning statement looking forward. You’re walking forward. Stop myopically looking at your feet and focus on the horizon. | 1.0% | -0.4% | 0.7% | 25.6% | + |
| 9/29/08 | Before the reverse bubble ends, buy something. | -15.0% | -21.1% | -28.8% | -6.9% | – |
| 9/1/08 | I’d bet we’re most of the way through to the end of this bear market. And after bear markets end, the initial upswings come fast and steep. It would be risky to get out now and end up being whipsawed–that is, exposed to most of the decline but absent for most of the recovery. Now is the time for patience. | -9.1% | -29.8% | -45.5% | -21.5% | – |
| 7/21/08 | Put aside your fears. The market will recover. …Markets dislike uncertainty, and uncertainty declines as Election Day nears. No guarantee the pattern will hold in 2008, but that’s the way to bet. | 0.5% | -24.9% | -32.5% | -22.5% | – |
| 6/16/08 | Now that we’ve had a full-fledged correction that scared the dickens out of everyone, stocks look wonderful. | -8.4% | -8.0% | -35.8% | -32.5% | – |
| 5/19/08 | Stocks should rise regardless of who winds up in the White House. | -6.2% | -9.0% | -36.1% | -37.7% | – |
| 4/21/08 | I’m bullish… I still think the year will end in the plus column. …Clearly folks are fearful now. So you should be greedy. | 1.8% | -9.2% | -31.8% | -38.6% | – |
| 3/24/08 | We’re in the first full correction of the new leg of the bull market. …By midyear we will awaken to an ever shrinking supply of equity and a growing economy. The market will be led by big companies. | 1.9% | -0.5% | -10.6% | -39.7% | – |
| 2/25/08 | I seek a parallel and find it only ten years ago. And that makes me bullish. Early 1998 saw financial crises eerily similar to today’s and a lot of hand-wringing about institutions collapsing and setting off a domino chain of other collapses. But guess what? The S&P 500 was up 28% that year. | -2.2% | 1.6% | -6.9% | -45.1% | – |
| 1/28/08 | I’m still bullish. Why? The larger non-U.S. economy is doing great. America isn’t doing badly… We aren’t likely to get much gloomier. Eventually we’ll come around. So 2008 is more likely to be a robust market than a bust one. Stocks are cheap, particularly compared with long-term interest rates globally… | 1.9% | 3.2% | -7.1% | -37.6% | – |
| 12/10/07 | …there’s room for more of a bull market ahead. I want to be the first to say we definitely are in a New Era of above-average returns… I’m expecting another above-average year ahead, an easy one. …buy stocks and be happy. | -6.3% | -12.9% | -10.4% | -42.4% | – |
| 11/12/07 | …I expect the flow of capital out of Japan to continue, and I remain very bullish about non-Japanese stocks. | 3.3% | -6.3% | -2.5% | -36.7% | – |
| 10/15/07 | …you should be … bullish! …The bears are wrong. …By December buybacks and takeovers will both be back and stocks will be soaring. | -4.4% | -8.6% | -13.8% | -38.9% | – |
| 9/17/07 | Don’t let this fall’s rally whiz right by you… As with all corrections, a few months from now we will be wondering what the fuss was about. | 4.2% | 0.8% | -13.5% | -18.3% | – |
| 7/2/07 | Here’s a good reason for believing that the bull market will continue: Journalists don’t think it will. …While you are waiting for the bears to turn bullish, buy good stocks… | -3.5% | 0.5% | -2.7% | -16.9% | – |
| 6/4/07 | If you haven’t already done so, buy stocks. Stocks are so cheap… | -0.9% | -5.3% | -4.5% | -8.8% | – |
| 5/7/07 | …you should own equities. The acceleration in buyouts and buybacks will keep creating a booming world stock market… | 0.6% | -5.0% | 0.0% | -7.9% | – |
| 4/16/07 | Good times are ahead in the stock market. So buy good stocks… | 2.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | -7.0% | + |
| 3/26/07 | Four and a half years and still going strong. The bull market that began in late 2002 is far from over. | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | -8.5% | + |
| 2/26/07 | This is a time to own stocks. | -1.4% | 4.0% | 0.9% | -5.6% | + |
| 1/29/07 | My 2007 forecast is for the global stock market…to be up somewhere between 10% and 40%, while the S&P 500 will up but by a lesser amount. By either measure the stock market will trounce both bonds and cash. | -1.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | -3.0% | – |
| 12/11/06 | The S&P 500…is on its way to a double-digit gain next year. Reason: 2007 is the third year of the presidential term… | 1.3% | -1.8% | 7.3% | 3.9% | – |
| 11/13/06 | …I still think there is a big bull move ahead. …Market timing is a dangerous game, best limited to the rare occasions when you have good reason to expect a significant bear market–meaning a decline of 20% or more…I just can’t justify the cost of in-and-outing to sidestep small corrections. …Could we have a big bear market now? I don’t think so. | 2.1% | 5.1% | 9.4% | 5.4% | + |
| 10/16/06 | Good times are close at hand. The time to buy is now, before the perception of political risk fades. | 1.8% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 9.6% | + |
| 9/18/06 | …the stock market has lots of political fear priced into it. Shrug off the fear and buy. You’ll find stocks a little cheaper than they should be. …Sometime before the election the market…will move upward… | 3.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 15.5% | + |
| 8/14/06 | The damage may not be over, but it’s not the beginning of a sustained bear market. You should be buying stocks now. There’s more bull market ahead before any real bear market. | 3.9% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 14.0% | + |
| 7/3/06 | You shouldn’t let gloomy thoughts stop you from buying stocks. …This year’s elections probably won’t budge the market. | -0.1% | 4.3% | 10.8% | 19.7% | + |
| 6/5/06 | …global long-term rates would have to almost double, to 7.2%, to choke off this bull market. Such an upward spike in rates…is unlikely. | 0.4% | 3.0% | 10.7% | 19.2% | + |
| 5/8/06 | Buy into this beautiful year. Keep thinking and buying globally, with a mix of good domestic and foreign stocks… | -5.2% | -3.4% | 3.2% | 13.5% | – |
| 4/17/06 | I remain bullish and believe that buying pressure will continue from companies using their excess cash and low aftertax borrowing costs to either acquire competitors or shrink their own capitalizations in buybacks. | 0.5% | -3.8% | 6.0% | 15.5% | – |
| 2/27/06 | This should be another good year in the stock market… Stocks could end 2006 like 2005, up a little, or like 1995, when they went up a lot–37%. | -0.1% | -1.6% | 0.1% | 7.2% | + |
| 8/15/05 | You’re not going to find a credible cause-and-effect relationship between oil and stocks. …other factors uncorrelated with stock market performance: the market’s overall price/earnings ratio, high volatility…, gold trade deficits, the dollar’s level, consumer sentiment, investor sentiment as measured by the “Investors Intelligence” data. So don’t panic when any of these go up or down. Buy good stocks and hold them. | -0.5% | -0.2% | 2.3% | 5.2% | – |
| 7/4/05 | There is scant media discussion of how long-term rates are down globally, much less why. The reason is that inflation is lower than expected. Despite regional and sector ups and downs, prices, globally, are pretty flat. Expect more of this and with it a sweeter world than the bubble brains forecast. | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | + |
| 6/6/05 | …stocks are cheap and money is even cheaper. | -0.2% | 2.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | + |
| 5/9/05 | Maybe I was wrong. Maybe the stock market won’t be up a lot in 2005… The only reason for a defensive posture…is perceiving risks that are little noticed. I can’t find many. | 1.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 10.8% | + |
| 4/18/05 | Instead of worrying about trade deficits, think about the unrelenting growth in both imports and exports. | 2.4% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 14.4% | + |
| 2/28/05 | I expect stocks to be up 25% this year. | -1.8% | -0.5% | 0.7% | 7.1% | – |
| 1/31/05 | I expect to be blessed in 2005 with what I didn’t get in 2004. I’ll stick my neck out and predict a better than 25% gain in 2005 for…the S&P 500… | 2.4% | -2.1% | 4.5% | 7.6% | – |
| 12/20/04 | Those who fear deficits also miss the fact that the fear itself, widely disseminated, is already priced into stock markets and has had a depressant effect. The aftermath of this depression must be bullish. | -1.6% | -0.9% | 1.8% | 5.7% | – |
| 11/29/04 | I’m looking for a melt-up. The postelection rally of November is just a down payment on what should be a terrific market for stocks in 2005. Next year will be a lot like 2003, when the S&P 500 index was up 28.7%, dividends included. | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 6.0% | – |
| 11/1/04 | Earnings yields at or above bond yields are exceptional. When you see that inversion of the normal relationship, you probably should be buying stocks. Which means you should buy now. | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 7.5% | + |
| 9/6/04 | I remain optimistic for a big upward move ahead. | 1.9% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | + |
| 7/26/04 | It is fashionable but wrong to think cheap stocks are now effectively nonexistent. Cheap stocks are plentiful. | 1.1% | 2.1% | 7.7% | 14.1% | + |
| 6/21/04 | There’s going to be a summer rally. Buy stocks. | -3.2% | -0.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | – |
| 5/24/04 | U.S. stocks [will] be up 20% in 2004… Interest rates should also be more benign than what’s expected in the consensus view. | 4.1% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | – |
| 3/15/04 | I see a good 20% as the result to bet on. | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 7.8% | – |
| 2/9/04 | My 2004 forecast is for a very positive year… The S&P 500 should do about 20%… | -1.4% | -3.6% | -5.3% | 5.0% | – |
| 1/12/04 | …this most enjoyable bull market has legs. | 2.7% | 1.6% | -1.4% | 4.5% | – |
| 12/8/03 | …the after-hours-trading scandal is bullish. It gives the first partial clues to how long this bull market may last–2006. | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 11.1% | + |
| 11/10/03 | I’m not defensive. | 1.1% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 13.1% | + |
| 9/29/03 | Life will be good for the next few years, even in Europe. Get ahead of the market’s response to the economic renaissance. | 4.0% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 12.4% | + |
| 9/1/03 | …right here and now, equities are doing just fine, beating cash or bonds this year handily. | -0.4% | 3.5% | 12.6% | 9.0% | + |
| 7/21/03 | The times ahead are going to be good. Enjoy them. | 2.4% | 7.3% | 16.3% | 11.0% | + |
| 6/23/03 | After three bad years prepare yourself for upside volatility, the good kind. | 0.7% | 5.6% | 10.9% | 15.6% | + |
| 5/26/03 | What should you worry about now? Letting the new bull market get away from you. Sell your timid Treasury bills. Buy stocks. | 2.5% | 4.4% | 8.8% | 17.8% | + |
| 3/3/03 | I expect [2003] to be great. | 2.8% | 15.4% | 20.7% | 38.3% | + |
| 2/3/03 | I’m bullish. Expect a 40%-plus 2003 S&P. | -3.5% | 8.1% | 14.2% | 31.2% | + |
| 1/6/03 | …third years of Presidents’ terms are overwhelmingly benign. | -9.2% | -5.4% | 8.5% | 21.8% | + |
| 12/9/02 | The next bursting bubble? Bonds | 4.0% | -10.2% | 11.8% | 20.1% | – |
| 11/11/02 | The not-quite-50% decline in stocks over the past two and a half years has wrung a lot of risk out of the market. You can now get some great long-term buys… | 3.3% | -5.4% | 7.2% | 20.8% | + |
| 10/14/02 | …this a beautiful time to invest in stocks. | 4.9% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 24.8% | + |
| 9/16/02 | But I think most of you will never see a market this gorgeous again, ever. Or if you do, you won’t see many. This is a time when value stocks are winning the tug-of-war. | -1.1% | 1.2% | -2.8% | 16.7% | + |
| 8/12/02 | I see very nice returns in 2003 and 2004. The question is: Exactly where is the bottom? Most folks now say later rather than sooner, so I suspect it will be sooner. | 0.6% | -0.1% | -8.3% | 9.6% | + |
| 7/8/02 | It is finally time to get fully invested, although maybe only temporarily. | -12.0% | -16.2% | -4.9% | 1.2% | – |
| 5/27/02 | The mere fact that a lot of people are asking me how to make good money right now is a sign that the ugly markets aren’t over. | -9.4% | -12.4% | -13.4% | -10.3% | + |
| 4/29/02 | I’m as bearish as I have been, without interruption, for 18 months. | 0.2% | -20.0% | -15.7% | -14.0% | + |
| 4/1/02 | My best guess is that the market won’t get past the 1200 mark soon. Lots of indigestion lies ahead before we reach that level. | -6.1% | -13.6% | -27.8% | -23.2% | + |
| 3/4/02 | Remain bearish. Save your strength. | -2.5% | -7.5% | -20.6% | -28.8% | + |
| 2/4/02 | Expect the S&P 500 to lose another 5% this year, plunging until spring with a strong rally in the year’s back seven months, one that won’t quite make up for the downdraft. The bottom might be around May 1, at about 900. | 6.2% | -1.9% | -23.7% | -23.4% | – |
| 1/7/02 | Highly probable for 2002: an up year for U.S. stocks despite a down first quarter. In the meantime, stay defensive. | -7.0% | -3.4% | -18.2% | -20.4% | + |
| 12/10/01 | …remain maximally bearish and defensive. | 1.5% | 2.3% | -10.5% | -20.9% | + |
| 11/12/01 | …a bottom is coming, and not too far away. Until then, hold tight. Remain defensive. | 1.7% | -1.0% | -2.4% | -19.1% | + |
| 10/15/01 | I remain bearish, and my reasoning has nothing to do with the way the market has reacted to the terrorist tragedy… Buy Treasury bills. Buy put options. Avoid equities. | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | -19.3% | + |
| 9/17/01 | What to do? Well, I’m still ahead year-to-date, by having avoided the decline so far this year. I’m content to sit and wait defensively until I see more worry and pain. Maybe it isn’t until the end of the year or, heaven forbid, until early next year. | 5.7% | 7.8% | 12.7% | -18.8% | – |
| 8/20/01 | This year? I’ve been cashlike all year. When I turn bullish, I will be recommending stocks. Not funds. | -13.6% | -2.9% | -5.3% | -21.6% | + |
| 7/23/01 | Remain defensive. The ride is rougher ahead. | -2.8% | -8.9% | -4.9% | -23.5% | + |
| 6/11/01 | Is it a new bull market? No. The spring rally has just about all the signs of a classic correction within a bear market. | -5.9% | -13.4% | -10.8% | -18.7% | + |
| 5/14/01 | It is still a long way to this bear market’s bottom. I stick by my forecast of an S&P 500 bottom below 860 (it’s now 1240) and a Nasdaq nadir of about 1200 (from 2080 currently). My forecasting methodology is based on the broad consensus of market professionals… Whatever they say will happen simply won’t… | -0.6% | -4.7% | -8.5% | -13.0% | + |
| 4/16/01 | …there’s gonna be a recession. It’s already started, I think. Gonna be ugly. | 5.9% | 3.1% | -9.4% | -7.3% | + |
| 3/19/01 | …the S&P 500, which lost 9% in 2000, will be off for 2001 by 35% come Sept. 1. Nasdaq, down 40% last year, will drop another 50% before the market bottoms out. … the market will hit bottom on Aug. 30, although it could be early July or late October. Then stocks should bounce back a lot… | 5.8% | 3.7% | -17.5% | -2.2% | + |
| 2/19/01 | My 2001 forecasts? I’m shifting to fully bearish for the first time in a decade. Next month I’ll detail why the S&P 500 should be fairly flat this year. For a while it will do much worse. It should fall more, maybe down 25% to 35%, in the late third or early fourth quarter. | -12.3% | 1.0% | -8.4% | -13.5% | + |
| 1/22/01 | Make no mistake, this is the middle of the classic bursting of a sector bubble. If you’re still overweight in technology, use the partial recovery to lighten up. | -6.5% | -7.4% | -11.3% | -17.1% | + |
| 5/29/00 | …be underweight [in tech]. What tech you do own should only be of the highest quality. | 2.3% | 5.9% | -5.7% | -11.4% | + |
| 5/1/00 | Build insurance into your investments. In case you’re wrong. And that comes from blending negatively correlated items. In other words, seek something that would go up a lot should other things go down. | -3.2% | -3.3% | -7.1% | -15.0% | + |
| 4/3/00 | The broad consensus of professionals as a group is always wrong. So figure out what it is and discard it. Consider all other possibilities and use historical analysis, market theory and good data-crunching to eliminate as many others as you can. What you can’t eliminate is most likely. … For 2000, I see a flat S&P. | -6.0% | -3.4% | -4.6% | -23.5% | – |
| 3/6/00 | Tech stocks are in a late-stage bubble. It should break later this year. | 7.4% | 6.2% | 9.1% | -9.1% | + |
| 2/7/00 | My forecasts for 2000? In terms of indexes, I foresee 20% for EAFE and 10% for my benchmark Morgan Stanley World. For the S&P 500, a 0% return. Not a bear market, but flat. The Nasdaq 100 should lose 15%. | -4.0% | 0.6% | 2.7% | -6.4% | – |
